Perhaps this is how the gods of fortune and chance are repaying me for missing so badly on that $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot a few weeks back. On my $20 ticket, I scored just one correct number (and it wasn’t even a Powerball).
That number (one) is popping up everywhere I look these days.
On the same day as that failed Powerball drawing, I realized the statistical oddity that was Peyton Manning and his one fourth-quarter, game-winning playoff drive (out of 55 total for his career). Manning changed that to two and 56 with a 65-yard touchdown drive against the Pittsburgh Steelers in fourth quarter of the Divisional Playoff.
The following week, I was equally surprised (dare I say stupefied) by the fact that during the 2015 campaign Manning had just one touchdown pass at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. He set to change that, as well, with two passes to Owen Daniels that found paydirt during the AFC Championship Game.
Heading into Super Bowl 50, wouldn’t you know that the darned number one has reared its ugly head again?
Yes, the Panthers starting quarterback, Cam Newton, was a No. 1 overall pick. But then again, so was Denver’s – one Peyton Manning.
And yes, Newton wears the No. 1 on his jersey, the same one he pantomimed tearing open like Superman (before he became America’s most hotly discussed dancer since Cheryl Burke). And believe me, there’s plenty of worry about that No. 1. Just ask Aqib Talib.
But that’s not the singular digit that is my primary cause for concern. Football is, after all, a game played by roster of 53 players, not just one.
Here’s the scary number: The Carolina Panthers as a team have just one loss this season.
Here’s the good news, Broncos fans: Since the 1985 Chicago Bears beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XX, no team to finish the regular season with a 15-1 record has gone on to win the Super Bowl.
With a win on Feb. 7, Denver can send Carolina into the same company as the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers and 2011 Green Bay Packers, teams whose second loss of the season was their last. To do that, Denver will have to stop Carolina and their first-team All-Pro quarterback, the shoo-in MVP. The only team to do that so far this season is the Atlanta Falcons.
But here’s even better news for Broncos fans: The Falcons beat the Panthers using a Denver Broncos blueprint.
In their Week 16 matchup, Atlanta controlled the clock, relied on its special teams and defense, and forced a key takeaway late in the game to snatch victory from the jaws of what has undoubtedly been the best team in football this season.
Atlanta scored only two touchdowns and 20 points in the win (coincidentally, the same numbers Denver used to defeat New England in the AFC Championship Game). One of those touchdowns came on the ground, a four-yard rush from Devonta Freeman. The other was a spectacular 70-yard touchdown pass to Julio Jones.
Denver can’t expect Peyton Manning to lob a bomb similar to the one Matt Ryan threw to Jones, but they can expect the Broncos’ balanced offense to control the time of possession in the same way the Falcons did. Atlanta’s first drive took 16 plays and 9:23 to go 80 yards and tie the game at 7-7. The drive was perfectly balanced with eight runs to eight passes with no plays going for more than 13 yards (although an unnecessary roughness penalty on Carolina went for 15).
If Denver can put together one or two similar drives, it will keep the potent Carolina offense off the field much like the Broncos did to Tom Brady during the first quarter on Sunday.
They will also need to keep Newton in difficult third-down situations, just like Atlanta did. Carolina was 4-for-10 on third down and 2-for-7 on third or fourth downs of five yard or longer.
Denver showed on Sunday that it didn’t need to blitz Tom Brady to get pressure, and while Carolina’s offensive line is much, much better than New England’s, Denver matches up better in coverage against Carolina’s receivers. Jonathan Stewart is averaging 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground, but Denver was the best in the league against the run in 2015, allowing just 3.3 yards per attempt during the regular season. Newton will be working harder for first downs than he has all year long, and Wade Phillips will certainly devise a scheme to frustrate him. That should translate into tough third downs.
On special teams, Atlanta converted 2-of-3 field goals, hitting both of their fourth-quarter attempts. More importantly, the Falcons punted only once in the game (on their second possession). That will be the Broncos biggest challenge – moving the chains against a very tough Carolina defense.
Denver showed against New England and Pittsburgh that it can win the field position battle, as Britton Colquitt looks to have regained the form that made him such a deadly weapon in years past. Even if Denver struggles to earn first downs, as they did in the second half against the Patriots, Newton could be facing a long field against a Broncos team that allowed the fewest yards per drive in the NFL. Only two of Carolina’s eight drives against Atlanta started better than their own 20-yard line. They scored on both of those possessions.
The Panthers scored just 13 points against the Falcons, their lowest total of the season. After Carolina levied a 49-15 shellacking of the Cardinals in the NFC Championship and put up 31 on Seattle the week prior – two very good defenses in their own right – it’s understandable that Broncos fans might be worried about a(nother) Super Bowl blowout. But if there’s one thing Denver has shown this year, it’s a propensity for slowing down offenses and forcing teams to play “at their speed.” New England was third in the league in scoring, averaging 29.1 points per game, yet the Denver defense held them to only 18 in the AFC Championship Game.
The Broncos also forced two turnovers against Brady, both interceptions, and had a “third” that occurred on the potential game-tying two-point conversion. (Bradley Roby’s “interception” doesn’t make it to the stat line, officially.) Against Carolina, Atlanta forced only one turnover, but it was the timing of that turnover that made the real difference.
With 90 seconds to play, Carolina had to go 80 yards to tie the game. They made it 19 yards before Newton was strip-sacked by Vic Beasley on a move that closely resembled the kind Von Miller put on New England all day Sunday. A late turnover was the difference in the game, like it has been for Denver so many times this season.
While it may have been incredibly stressful to endure for fans, Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips have done an expert job employing a game plan that forced opponents to finish games on Denver’s terms. That meant capitalizing on turnovers and grinding out low-scoring games decided in the fourth quarter. It’s how Denver beat New England and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. It’s how they secured 10 of their 12 wins in the regular season. And it’s how the Falcons handed the Panthers their one loss of the season.
The only one that matters now? The one more win of that variety Denver needs in order to spoil Carolina’s near-perfect season. Who needs Powerball when you’ve got a Broncos Super Bowl victory?
