Exactly one week ago, I wrote that Peyton Manning doesn’t need to be a conquering hero for the Broncos to win in the playoffs – suggesting that Manning the “game manager” would be sufficient.
Well darned if Manning and the Broncos didn’t prove me right, at least about what it would take to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. Manning threw for 222 yards and no touchdowns, and most importantly he (and the rest of the Broncos offense) had no turnovers. Denver scored on six of 13 possessions, not including the final genuflect. The special teams unit was superb and the defense, another key in the Broncos’ winning formula, allowed points on just four Pittsburgh drives and created the game’s sole turnover. That turnover ultimately led to the game-winning touchdown drive for Manning and the Broncos.
One week ago, I also noted a curious statistic that Manning carried with him into the Divisional Playoff against the Steelers – that the league’s all-time leader in fourth-quarter game-winning drives had just one of those to his name in the playoffs.
Go ahead and color me tickled pink that Manning padded his total by leading the aforementioned touchdown drive, which culminated in a C.J. Anderson one-yard run and was capped by a two-point conversion pass to Demaryius Thomas. It was his fourth game-winning drive of the season, the 56th of his career and his second in the postseason.
Given the success I enjoyed in my prognostication and bizarre statistical analysis, I’m hoping for a repeat performance as the Broncos now face the daunting task of unseating the defending world champions and back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back AFC Championship Game participants, the New England Patriots.
Remember that loneliest of numbers from last week? The one postseason game-winning drive Manning had engineered prior to Sunday? This week’s number is just as solitary and might be just as staggeringly surprising.
One is also the number of touchdown passes Manning has thrown at Sports Authority Field at Mile High this season.
Not one per quarter. Not one per game. Not one per opponent from the NFC North. One. Total.
In what amounts to five full games at altitude (Weeks 10 and 17 combine nicely to account for essentially one full game), the quarterback who two years ago tied an NFL record with seven touchdown passes in one game at home would need another 30 full games to match that number at his pace this season.
One measly passing touchdown at home.
Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley each had that many for the Indianapolis Colts in their season finale. Both Lindley and Freeman were signed by the Colts between Christmas and New Year’s Day because the three other quarterbacks on their roster were all injured. Lindley took all of 11 snaps this season, yet that’s the bizarre company that Manning keeps at the moment.
The cause for this statistical anomaly is multifold.
The Broncos offensive philosophy has changed. They’re more apt to let C.J. Anderson try and bull rush three times from the one-yard line than try and throw three fades or three bubble screens to Demaryius or Julius Thomas.
That’s another reason: Personnel has changed. It’s not like Manning and head coach Gary Kubiak didn’t try to run those tried and tested fades and screens in the early part of the year; they did. But Owen Daniels is not Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas for much of the year was not the typical Demaryius Thomas.
That’s another reason: Denver’s receivers didn’t hang on to the ball. Demaryius Thomas wasn’t the only Broncos pass-catcher who had trouble hanging on to the ball in the end zone. Daniels dropped TD opportunities, as did Ronnie Hillman, and they weren’t alone. And those drops weren’t just happening in the end zone.
That’s another reason: Denver scored far less touchdowns at home this year because the offense simply didn’t find sustained rhythm when Manning was throwing the ball. Whether that’s because he was throwing early because his line was collapsing like a wet paper tent or because his receivers were muffing passes because they weren’t arriving with their usual speed and accuracy, it’s certainly a mixture of both.
The good news, however, is that the Broncos – even though they didn’t score as many touchdowns as they’d have liked against the Steelers – appear to have most of those kinks worked out.
Kubiak has balanced his offense and the running game is in stride, having rushed for 100 yards or more in seven of their last eight contests. They face a Patriots team that gave up 135 yards on the ground to Kansas City in the Divisional Round.
Roles have finally been defined on offense. Hillman and Anderson will split carries. Thomas will get the majority of targets in the passing game, while Emmanuel Sanders will come in not far behind. Jordan Norwood and Bennie Fowler will rotate in and pick up the slack when Thomas and/or Sanders are double-covered. Daniels and Virgil Green will help the offensive line and slip into space on occasion. Vernon Davis will remain available as an emergency substitution.
The offensive line, against a good Steelers front seven, kept Manning clean and gave him plenty of time to throw. They are the healthiest they’ve been all season long (as far as the injury reports go) and they have finally worked out the difficult choreography of Kubiak’s zone blocking system. Most importantly, they’re gaining confidence.
Even Manning, who had a staggering touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first 10 starts this year, appears to have worked out the jitters. In a game and half against Pittsburgh and San Diego, he looked mostly crisp and wasn’t making the bad decisions or rushed throws that plagued him early in the year.
All that’s left is for the receivers to start catching the ball with greater frequency.
The offense against Pittsburgh looked like one that was playing with a quarterback that hadn’t started in two months. That’s not to say that Manning looked like he hadn’t been playing – he looked better than he’s looked all year. His receivers just weren’t used to playing with him. They’ll enter Sunday with three full weeks of practice and a game and a half of live action reps with Manning at the helm. That should translate to more catches.
All of it should translate to some touchdowns.
Truth be told, I wasn’t expecting Manning to lead a game-winning drive against Pittsburgh. I thought it wouldn’t be necessary. Come Sunday, the Broncos face a Patriots team that put up 52 touchdowns in the regular season, including three here in Denver. Touchdowns will be very necessary against New England.
Prove me right, Peyton. Those touchdowns are coming.