John Elway is in no apparent rush to reveal the next step in his quarterback process. And why should he be? He’s polishing a Lombardi Trophy despite the fact that his quarterbacks produced the second-worst passer rating in the league last year. Time and the market are both on Elway’s side right now.
Rushing into a hasty quarterback decision makes no sense right now. The only possible trade option at the moment comes a too high of a price, both in terms of the contract and what the Broncos would have to give up.
It’s why Elway appears content to wait out the San Francisco 49ers, willing to see if they’ll put their money where their mouth is and lock in the disgruntled Colin Kaepernick on April 1, despite his February request to get out of the Bay Area. Denver has so far proven unwilling to give up the first- or second-round pick that San Francisco wants in exchange for the quarterback, while new head coach Chip Kelly may have just enough hubris to think he can sweet talk Kaepernick into coming back and playing nice.
Why would Elway, who’s already tight on cap space, make that trade? Especially for a quarterback whose passer rating has dropped an average of six points every year for each of the past three years to a career low of 78.5 last season – not even a full point better than Denver’s No. 31 team average last year.
If San Fran really wants to start the Blaine Gabbert era, they’ll have to cut Kaepernick and absorb a dead cap hit over the next three years. Elway can then begin the negotiation process with Kaepernick at a fraction of the potentially $85-plus million* he could be owed over the next five years. (*Performance de-escalators could knock the value down each year and guaranteed money is virtually nil.)
Elway already proved with Brock Osweiler that he didn’t want to pay that kind of price for a quarterback of that caliber. And with other options available at a lower price tag, why should he have to?
The list of pedestrian veteran quarterbacks available in free agency is long and the price tag for each will continue to drop as the draft draws nearer. Elway has no need to rush a free agent signing.
Robert Griffin III, a former Rookie of the Year, remains without a contract. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who led the Jets (who were 4-12 in 2014 without him) to 10-6 in 2015, is also currently residing in quarterback purgatory. Both produced better passer ratings in 2015 than either of the Broncos’ quarterbacks.
Elway has already indicated he won’t pay Fitzpatrick’s asking price, which is suggested to be in the three-year, $15 million per year range. After adding Mark Sanchez at $4.5 million for the year, why would Elway add Fitzpatrick at $15 million and wade right back into that same $19 million-plus per year range where he apparently didn’t want to go with Osweiler and doesn’t want to pursue with Kaepernick? Again, he appears content to let the market drive Fitzpatrick’s value down, even if it means letting him go back to the Jets. Despite consecutive years with passer ratings above 88.0, Fitzpatrick is still a lifetime 43-61-1 quarterback with a career rating of 80.8.
Griffin, meanwhile, has become the main focus of the Browns now that trade talks for Kaepernick have stalled. If there’s one thing John Elway won’t do, it’s get into a bidding war with Cleveland. Rumors circulated about a possible RGIII-to-Denver play, but the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner yet to come for a visit (or physical examination).
Griffin has yet to play a full 16-game season and his 2015 season was severely limited due to injury. During his tenure as GM, Elway hasn’t shown a particular propensity for risk with injury-prone veterans. His roll of the dice with Evan Mathis last year worked out, which may be why he was willing to try again with Russell Okung. But those are All-Pro and Pro Bowl linemen, and both signed very team-friendly deals. Griffin would have to come in under similar terms, if he’s even wanted at all.
There are a dozen other free agent quarterbacks out there that are at the next level below Griffin and Fitzpatrick – guys like Jimmy Clausen, Matt Flynn and T.J. Yates, who could come in for pennies and “compete” alongside Mark Sanchez for next to nothing.
Remember, the Broncos have approximately $6 million in cap space currently. Cutting Ryan Clady will spare them another $9.5 million, but they still have an entire draft class to sign (at around $5-6 million), not to mention finding reinforcements for free agent defections like David Bruton and the little matter of working a long-term deal with Von Miller.
It’s hard to imagine John Elway siphoning off a huge portion of his available cap space for a quarterback like Griffin, Fitzgerald or even Kaepernick, knowing that he has Mark Sanchez already on the roster and his Super Bowl MVP is effectively in limbo on a franchise tag.
If Elway can’t get one of those three quarterbacks at an extremely discounted rate, there’s no reason to make a hasty move for any of them. Sanchez can certainly carry the torch for a year, or compete for the starting gig with a draft pick like Paxton Lynch or Dak Prescott come training camp.
Denver proved last year that it could do incredible things despite lackluster quarterback play. Elway shouldn’t expect that to repeat, but he shouldn’t get scared into a bad contract with an average quarterback either.
