Time is quickly running out for the Colorado Rockies to secure the first Major League win for the pitcher they believe will be atop their rotation in the very near future, Jon Gray.
With Monday’s 9-3 loss to Pittsburgh, in which Gray surrendered five runs on nine hits including two home runs, Colorado will have two more opportunities in 2015 to deliver a “W” for their (hopefully) soon-to-be No. 1 starter.
Colorado has 12 games remaining on the schedule, meaning Gray should see two more starts before the season concludes. Having started Monday and with one off day (Monday, Sept. 28) remaining on the schedule, Gray should start the series finale with the Dodgers on Sunday, Sept. 27 and the season finale at San Francisco on Sunday, Oct. 4.
If things remain unchanged, the first matchup works favorably for Gray. Against Los Angeles, he should avoid both Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke; Gray would face lefty Alex Wood (11-10, 3.63) if both rotations remain intact through the end of the week. Flip a coin on that game, as Wood is 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA against Colorado in three games (two starts) between his time with Atlanta and Los Angeles this year.
Gray faced Kershaw in his first matchup with the Dodgers (Sept. 14), but took his first Major League loss, giving up two runs on six hits in 4.2 innings, striking out eight. No doubt, the Dodgers’ potent lineup will be itching for another crack at the youngster with the live arm.
Add to that start the fact that it will be at Coors Field, and Gray’s chances for a win could be even dicier. Following Tuesday’s loss, Gray told the Denver Post that he’s struggling to pitch at altitude: “I’ve pitched fine on the road,” Gray said. “I just can’t find that, whatever it is, to make an adjustment to pitch in this place.”
Things are a little less certain for San Francisco, who is clinging to hope that Los Angeles can falter down the stretch and they can steal the NL West. Before closing out the season against the Rockies, San Francisco has a four-game set with the Dodgers. Los Angeles’ magic number currently sits at seven entering play Tuesday. The Giants need some help from Colorado to keep that number intact before that final week of the season begins.
It’s anyone’s guess as to who Gray could match up with in the season finale, as San Francisco’s rotation is in a state of flux, just like their playoff chances. Additionally, the Giants do not have an off day before the end of the season, which sets up for a possible finale with Madison Bumgarner on the hill.
If by some miracle the Giants are able to stay alive until that final game, Giants manager Bruce Bochy will undoubtedly go with his ace. If San Francisco has been eliminated by that time and the rotation falls that way, Bochy will still have a tough decision to make: Send his ace out for a final goodbye on this year (and possible 20th win), or protect him from potential injury in a meaningless game.
Neither scenario plays out well for Gray if he’s still searching for his first win at that point. A season-ending win that coincides with Gray’s first of his career would be a positive way to cap off a disappointing season, so the Rockies should hope they can avoid a scenario in which their rookie would face either Bumgarner or Matt Cain (against whom the Rockies are 8-17 all-time).
Since being recalled on Aug. 4, Gray has started nine games, being held to a strict pitch count throughout. Monday’s 4.2-inning effort was his second in a row in which he did not make it out of the fifth inning and his five runs allowed were his second-highest total since joining the big club. The loss to the Pirates marked the first time he allowed multiple home runs in a game.
On three different occasions, Gray has gone at least five innings while surrendering less than two runs, but the Rockies have been unable to deliver the right-hander’s first victory. The strict pitch count Colorado has mandated for Gray during his first nine starts hasn’t helped, nor has the Rockies’ inconsistent offense in games in which he’s performed well.
Neither Gray nor the Rockies probably envisioned a scenario in which he needed double-digit starts to secure his first big league win, but that’s the current situation. And if the cards fall as they might, Gray may be waiting until 2016 to secure that elusive first win.
Adding an even bigger wrinkle to all this would be if the Rockies decide to shut down Gray after only one more start, or severely limit his innings over his next two starts in order to keep him below the rookie threshold of 50 innings pitched. Don’t be surprised if the Rockies play that card instead of trying to get their future No. 1 starter career win No. 1.
Gray is currently at 40.2 innings, so he’ll have to go less than five in at least one of those games stay under his 50-inning limit. A starting pitcher must complete five innings to earn a win, so if Gray doesn’t look on-pace to pick up a ‘W,’ expect him to get yanked early in at least one of his final two starts.
