Nine games into the season is “insignificant” from a statistical perspective. It’s barely 10% of the season, and the Denver Nuggets have yet to go through a point of adversity and see a real injury to their rotation.
But in this week’s version of Stat of the Week, I want to point out a detail that’s been noticeable almost every single night: Jonas Valanciunas.
Quick! Name the five most productive scoring centers on a “per minute” basis in the NBA so far this season…the Nuggets of course employ one of them in Nikola Jokic. Despite his efficiency and injury struggles, Joel Embiid still joins him. Unsurprisingly, Victor Wembanyama is also there.
The two most surprising names among centers to play 100 minutes this season, sorted by Points per 36 minutes: Jalen Duren…and Valanciunas.
- Joel Embiid – 30.3 points per 36 minutes
- Nikola Jokic – 26.7 points per 36
- Jalen Duren – 25.8 points per 36
- Victor Wembanyama – 25.8 points per 36
- Jonas Valanciunas – 25.5 points per 36
No other center has cracked 25 points per 36 minutes so far this year.
Being a backup center can be difficult in some situations. In Denver, it’s been almost impossible for years. Teams usually find a respite when Jokic leaves the game and attack whoever the backup is. Denver obviously can’t play the same style they play in the starter minutes when it’s DeAndre Jordan or Zeke Nnaji. Only DeMarcus Cousins had any hope during a three month stretch with the team in 2022.
But Valanciunas is finding many of the same opportunities and capitalizing. His minutes might be low (12.6 minutes per game) but the usage rate of 27.4% (per Basketball Reference) is fairly high. While Jokic ranks just eighth among all qualified centers with a 25.2% usage (focused on scoring touches) Valanciunas is all the way up to third at the position. He trails only Embiid and Wembanyama, meaning the Nuggets have gotten him more involved than any other backup center in the NBA by far (per minute).
Of course, it only works if the ball goes in the basket. Valanciunas’ True Shooting of 62.0% is merely good for a center, though his shot profile of “just” 65% of his shot attempts within 10 feet of the basket allows him some wiggle room there given his value as a jump shooter.
The other factor where Valanciunas has been great is as a rebounder, maintaining a 20.8% rebounding rate while on the floor. Jokic is at 20.9% and both are borderline Top 10 in a per-minute basis. Valanciunas hasn’t been perfect in that regard, but he’s been solid. Lineups with Valanciunas have had strong defensive rebounding and average offensive rebounding, which is good enough at this stage.
The real key though is this: how are the Nuggets playing when Valanciunas is on the floor? Are they winning or losing minutes? In previous seasons, the Nuggets have lost the non-Jokic minutes pretty badly, so any improvement is notable.
With Valanciunas on the floor, the Nuggets have maintained a -4.4 Net Rating so far, according to Cleaning the Glass which removes garbage time. That might not sound great, but it’s better than before. Last year in minutes without Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets had a -9.8 Net Rating. The year before: an ugly -11.1 Net Rating. So, -4.4 is actually a significant improvement, and there’s no reason why it can’t continue to get better going forward.
Because Valanciunas only averages 12.6 minutes a night, the box score numbers he’s putting up may not stand out as starkly from night to night. This is a reminder to give those numbers a bit more credit. Valanciunas has been productive and effective, turning Denver’s biggest weakness into something slightly more manageable.
That’s notable, even in a nine-game sample size.
