Josh Allen is excellent.
Coming out of college, the knock on the man now under center for the Buffalo Bills was that he wasn’t accurate. That completion percentage at the University of Wyoming, a concerning 56.1 percent, just wouldn’t work at the next level. Allen had all the tools though – the big arm, the frame, the agility and the footspeed – but still, not hitting the bullseye was cause for concern, especially in the oh-so-small windows of the NFL.
Fast forward a couple of seasons and Allen is the darling of the league’s young quarterbacks. Yes, Justin Herbert is the most notable rookie, the injured Joe Burrow could sure make a case, but Allen – now in his third season with the Bills – is the kind of quarterback any franchise would want. He’s still got the big arm, still can tuck it and run and currently has his Bills at 10-3, running away with the AFC East. In fact, he’s a top-three quarterback in the league.
It’s funny, because heading into the 2018 NFL Draft, Allen was a risk. Upside? Huge. Concern? Plenty – but mostly it was his inability to hit the open receiver in the numbers.
At least five GMs probably wish they had that draft over again. Allen went 7th, behind fellow quarterbacks Baker Mayfield (1) and Sam Darnold (3). Mayfield has had a decent year – nothing like Allen’s, however – as he’s currently rated No. 12. Darnold will likely be looking for a new home once the Jets draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. It’s not that the other selections in the top-6 – Saquon Barkley (2), Denzel Ward (4) and Bradley Chubb (5), Quenton Nelson (6) – have been bad (all but Chubb have been Pro Bowl selections), it’s just that landing that franchise quarterback trumps all. Cleveland did well with both Mayfield and Ward, but would they have been better with Ward and Allen? Tough to say.
“All but Chubb” might indicate that there’s one GM, one who had struggled with employing a decent quarterback since Super Bowl 50, who’d really like a do-over in 2018.
John Elway could have had Josh Allen.
Coulda. Shoulda. Woulda.
It’s easy to say that Elway should have drafted the third-best quarterback in the NFL now.
But how easy is it to say that Drew Lock, who Elway selected at No. 42 in the 2019 draft, is a bust? Maybe he’s not a bust, but surely the he’s not as good as Allen.
Or is he?
Right now, there’s no comparison. Allen is unquestionably better. But before you dismiss the question entirely, carefully consider a few things. What about at this exact same point in their respective careers. After 15 games, which quarterback was better statistically? Don’t answer, just look…
Through their first 15 games, the numbers between Lock an Allen are almost identical.
Record: Both 8-7.
Completion Percentage: Allen, 55.5. Lock, 59.5.
Yards per attempt: Both at 6.7 yards.
TD-INT Ration (get this!): Allen, 13-18. Lock 20-16.
Passer Rating: Allen, 68.9. Lock 79.7.
Not quite a year into Josh Allen’s rookie year, were Bills fans calling for his head? No. They were willing to live with growing pains. Young quarterbacks are inconsistent. Period.
In his rookie season, Allen had three game where his rating was in the 40s or lower. Conversely, he had two games that topped 100. Last season, Allen’s second, he was slightly more consistent. He posted six 100-plus rating games, but he still had three in the 60s and even one game where he rated out at 24.0. Ouch.
This season, he’s been spectacular with an average rating of 103.3.
Given his path, why is everyone in Denver so impatient?
There’s no way of telling if Drew Lock will one day be as good (or better) than Josh Allen. But there’s no way of telling he won’t be either.
If you believe in numbers – while unimpressive, Lock’s stats now aren’t much different than Allen’s then – then there’s plenty of reasons to be patient with Lock. But if numbers don’t do the trick, the real reason to be optimistic for Lock will be standing on the sideline opposite the Broncos sideline.
Is Drew Lock on pace to become the next Josh Allen? Who knows, but the numbers show that anything is possible. And maybe, just maybe, Lock is the guy after all.
Josh Allen sure was.