Tis the season for hot takes, wild predictions and pseudo-insight. That’s right, Broncos training camp starts this week, a time when seemingly every member of the local media tries to flex their journalistic muscle by engaging in one or more of those time-honored summer traditions, all in the hope of something sticking to the wall long enough for them to bask in the glow of their newfound brilliance.
Three weeks from now, when camp has closed to the public and only a couple of preseason yawners separate everyone from finally getting to watch real football, almost all of these notions will be long forgotten. They’ll rest on the same steaming pile of radio interviews, live tweets, blogs and other forms of communication that once trumpeted the likes of Hamza Abdullah, Kevin Kasper and Mike Bell.
But between now and then, they’ll be everywhere, emblazoned in all caps and bold fonts for the world to see. In fact, they’ve already begun; given that the NFL has morphed into a 12-month-per-year sport in terms of interest, crazy prognostications are never out of season.
For proof of this phenomenon, look no further than the two most-hyped “dark horses” heading into the 2016 campaign – Jeff Heuerman and Trevor Siemian. The second-year tight end and quarterback, respectively, are atop many lists of under-the-radar players that so-called experts are circling as their selections for the unsung players most likely to make an impact during training camp, exhibition games and into the regular season.
With Owen Daniels gone, Heuerman is the trendy pick to become the Broncos latest pass-catching tight end, a vital role in a true Gary Kubiak offense. And given the uncertainty at quarterback, plenty of people think Siemian has a leg up because he’s the only signal caller on the roster who was in Denver last season.
In terms of sheer guesses, these are as good as any; they certainly could come true. The problem stems, however, from the fact that the people who purport them have the gall to suggest they are more than blind guesses; instead, these pundits use their supposed inside access as justification for their predictions.
And it’s all a bunch of hogwash.
Last year, Heuerman was lost for the season before anyone ever saw him don the orange and blue. The tight end blew out his knee during a rookie minicamp in early May, suffering the injury during a non-contact special teams drill.
At the time, the Broncos said all the right things, stating how disappointed they were that the third-round pick wouldn’t be on the field in 2015 because they had big plans for him. Those expectations struck a chord, as the past 14 months have seen a growing notion about how great Heuerman will be in Denver; there seems to be an overwhelming belief that he’s the perfect fit in Kubiak’s system.
He might be; that could certainly turn out to be the case. But for people to say it as fact, as if it’s something they believe based on evidence they’ve seen with their own eyes, is just poppycock. After all, not a single member of the media has ever seen Heuerman participate in a single drill as a Bronco, let alone a full practice or preseason game.
So how on earth do they know how well he will (or won’t, for that matter) look in Denver? It certainly wasn’t based on his playing days at Ohio State; as a Buckeye, Heuerman caught 26 passes as a junior, for 466 yards, and then hauled in just 17 catches during his final year in Columbus, recording a mere 207 yards. In other words, there’s absolutely nothing other than groupthink, drinking the Kool-Aid and wild speculation to support a claim that Heuerman will be the next great pass-catching tight end in Denver.
There’s roughly the same amount of evidence for Siemian becoming the Broncos starting quarterback. But in spite of no proof to suggest that he’s ready for the job, there has been a growing cascade of pontificators putting forth that idea in recent weeks and months. Now, with camp starting this week, there’s actually a contingent of people who believe the second-year quarterback has a shot to be behind center when Denver hosts Carolina in a Super Bowl rematch on Sept. 8.
He might be; that could certainly turn out to be the case. But for people to predict it because they’ve supposedly seen something in the young quarterback is just nonsense. After all, the body of work put forth by Siemian is barely larger than what was seen last year from Heuerman.
During the 2015 preseason, a time in which the experts were supposedly wowed, the then-rookie saw very limited action. He put up very good numbers during fourth-quarter mop up time in games one and two (12-for-16, 179 yards and one touchdown), but struggled mightily when given the chance to play major minutes in the final exhibition game (11-for-24, 104 yards, one touchdown, one interception and three sacks). Actual history, versus the revisionist version that the pro-Siemian crowd wants to remember, makes it hard to find evidence of this dazzling on-field display that they recall with such nostalgia.
Perhaps it stems from watching him during training camp last season, but that too is difficult to believe. After all, the first year under head coach Gary Kubiak saw Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler get a majority of the important reps, as they were in a hurry to master the mash-up offensive system the Broncos would use in 2015. And when the first two quarterbacks weren’t behind center, Siemian was sharing reps with Zac Dysert, the previous year’s quarterback du jour. In other words, it’s hard to believe that anyone gleaned much insight by watching the little-ballyhooed battle for the third-string quarterback job during last year’s camp.
Truth be told, the best piece of evidence to suggest that Siemian may be up to the task of running Denver’s offense is what the team did last year when Manning was injured. With Osweiler in the starting lineup, Kubiak and Company didn’t sign a veteran backup to serve as the No. 2 quarterback on game days; instead, they were comfortable enough with Siemian to let him fill that role. Still, he took only one snap during the season – a kneel-down at the end of the first half in Pittsburgh.
All of this is not to say that Heuerman and Siemian can’t play; instead, it’s to provide a reminder that no one knows if they can. There is so little evidence to review, it would be foolish to say what they are or aren’t capable of doing on the field; no one truly has any idea.
So as Broncos training camp gets underway, be ready to call balderdash on those who suggest these two second-year players are going to fill major voids on Denver’s offense. And throughout the next three weeks, have the BS meter turned all the way up to high; after all, tis the season for hot takes, wild predictions and pseudo-insight.