It’s been nine games of the defending Stanley Cup champs being in uncharted territory. A place where they’re struggling to find the back of the net.
As of Nov. 2, the Avalanche are tied for last in 5-on-5 goals, scoring a paltry 11 goals at full strength. They trail the NHL-leading Los Angeles Kings by 17.
Their early season woes are not uncommon. Colorado is 4-4-1 after starting last year’s Stanley Cup-winning season 4-5-1. But unlike a season ago, this team has offensive issues. Having a strong power play helps, but with a majority of the game played at 5-on-5, something’s got to give.
They’re just one season removed from a total of 198 goals at 5-on-5, which was fifth in the NHL. Just to reach that mark, Colorado would need to score at a 210-goal pace in the final 73 games. That would’ve put them second in the NHL a year ago.
Any way you cut it, the Avs are struggling to put the puck in the net when they’re not on the power play. Yes, they lost a lot of depth up front, most notably from two of their highest point producers in Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky. And sure, injuries hurt. Not having Gabriel Landeskog for all nine games and top goal-scorer Valeri Nichushkin for the last two isn’t ideal.
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But they’ve also seen minimal production from players expected to score. Cale Makar and Devon Toews have yet to find the back of the net. Third-line center J.T. Compher has just a single assist this season. Alex Newhook, who has been a disappointment after lofty expectations of taking over as the 2C, has one point — a goal in garbage time after the Avs went down by two late in their last outing. Nathan MacKinnon had 25 even-strength goals in 65 games last year, a pace of one goal in roughly every three games. He has just one this season.
The list goes on.
While Colorado lacks a lot of presence in the lineup from the departure of Kadri and the injury to Landeskog, something seems off entirely through the first three weeks. Mostly, it’s the lack of consistent and efficient line combinations. And by no means is that a knock on head coach Jared Bednar. The Avs have just eight or nine forwards on any given night worthy of playing a reasonable amount of minutes. They usually roll three lines and have three spare parts dressing on the fourth line.
Here’s what their forward lines looked like in Saturday’s 5-4 loss against the New York Islanders:
Rodrigues – MacKinnon – Rantanen
Lehkonen – Compher – O’Connor
Cogliano – Newhook – Hunt
MacDermid – Maltsev – Kaut
Injuries: Nichushkin, Helm, Landeskog
Minors: Meyers
Without looking for outside help — which is an option that should be entertained — the best way for the Avalanche to get over this early slump is to find four line combinations that could have some semblance of consistency until Landeskog returns after the new year.
Nichushkin and depth forward Darren Helm will both be included for this exercise. Nichushkin is expected to rejoin the team in Finland and it’s still unclear when Helm is expected to return. He has been skating in a non contact jersey since training camp began.
Here are some ideas of how the lines could shake out:
- Depth chart lineup
Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen
Nichushkin – Newhook – Rodrigues
Meyers – Compher – O’Connor
Cogliano – Helm – Hunt
Maltsev, Kaut
Do you know those line combinations that just make sense when you’re looking at a team’s depth chart? This is it. Artturi Lehkonen remains on the top line with the Avs’ two-headed monster — the same position he had in the Stanley Cup Final. Newhook is joined by usual top-six winger Nichushkin and free-agent acquisition Evan Rodrigues. Compher is skating with O’Connor, who gets a bump from the fourth line in Landeskog’s absence, and Ben Meyers, who many expected to replace Burakovsky on the third line before his early season struggles and demotion to the American Hockey League.
2. Stacking the top line
Nichushkin – MacKinnon – Rantanen
Lehkonen – Newhook – Rodrigues
Meyers – Compher – O’Connor
Cogliano – Helm – Hunt
Maltsev, Kaut
Nichushkin swaps positions with Lehkonen and joins the top line in this scenario. Nichushkin had a breakout season in 2021-22, capping it off with an incredible postseason run and an eight-year, $49 million extension. He somehow managed to find a new level in the early stages of this season, scoring seven goals and recording 12 points in seven games. Despite missing the last two games, Nichushkin leads the Avs in both categories.
3. Spreading the wealth
Rodrigues – MacKinnon – Rantanen
Nichushkin – Newhook – Lehkonen
Meyers – Compher – Hunt
Cogliano – Helm – O’Connor
Maltsev, Kaut
Rodrigues has suddenly found his stride, scoring four goals in the last five games. If he gets a shot on the top line, it gives Newhook two formidable wingers to help break him out of his early slump. I’m a believer in giving Newhook the better set of wingers because, well, MacKinnon and Rantanen can produce with just about anyone.
The bottom six have been a bigger issue thus far. If O’Connor is slotted on the fourth line, he’ll rejoin a trio with Cogliano and Helm that were a pleasant surprise in the playoffs. And Dryden Hunt, Colorado’s recent waiver-wire pickup, would then get to play a more offensive role with two players that should — but haven’t — provided much offensive output quite yet.
4. Veterans take precedence
Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen
Nichushkin – Newhook – Rodrigues
Cogliano – Compher – O’Connor
Meyers – Helm – Hunt
Maltsev, Kaut
Compher has spent a lot of time with Cogliano and O’Connor in the early going. This is about as close as you can get to what the Avs used for most of October. The one exception is Helm on the fourth line. Without him, Colorado has cycled through a number of other depth forwards, causing Bednar to have little trust in the bottom line and regularly playing them for less than seven minutes a night.
5. When everyone is healthy
Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen
Landeskog – Newhook – Nichushkin
Rodrigues – Compher – Meyers
Cogliano – Helm – O’Connor
Maltsev, Kaut
This is ultimately what the Avs could have on the ice each night if Landeskog was healthy. Is it enough to contend for another Cup? It’s too early to tell. If Newhook takes a big step and Meyers finds his stride, it’s a pretty good lineup. But if neither happens, the Avalanche have some holes to fill. Last year they swapped Tyson Jost for Nico Sturm and added Lehkonen and Cogliano to an already deep forward group where everyone was pulling their weight. The expectation is for general manager Chris MacFarland to add other forward pieces by the deadline.
Who he adds and how many pieces is the only question.
