Welcome back! It’s been a while since I’ve done a mailbag for Mile High Sports. Usually, I will do mailbags for podcast content, but it’s nice to simply answer questions and use a written platform instead. If you like this style better than a podcast mailbag, let me know!

We’ve got some great questions, so thank you to all who submitted. Let’s get right into it.

Lots of great questions here! I will answer the first two.

The expected playoff rotation will be fascinating. The Nuggets starters are all set in stone, but identifying the right mix of players in the playoffs is mostly folly. Every playoff game often ends up being a bit different. Foul trouble, injuries, and an untimely opponent scoring run can throw things out of whack.

That being said, here’s my best shot at a playoff rotation as I see it now.

The Nuggets are currently running a similar playoff rotation that includes Zeke Nnaji playing backup center; however, it’s more than likely that Aaron Gordon will suit up to play Denver’s backup center minutes when the playoffs roll around. While Nnaji has been okay for the Nuggets post All-Star Break, the team still has a negative net rating when he’s out there.

Inserting Aaron Gordon to run pick and rolls and dribble hand-offs with Jamal Murray is probably the easiest way for Denver to run their second unit. Insert three defensive wings in Justin Holiday, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson around that duo, and the Nuggets should be well positioned with a baseline bench unit. In the (likely) event that the bench unit still struggles to score, the Nuggets can always stagger Michael Porter Jr. ir Kentavious Caldwell-Pope when in need of additional three-point spacing.

Ultimately though, it’s the minute totals that matter. I have a nine-man rotation with all five starters projected between 36 and 38 minutes initially. That’s a lot of time, but it’s on players like Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday, maybe even Zeke Nnaji, to show that they can be trusted in those moments when given an opportunity. Braun and Watson are penciled into play time due to their defensive capabilities. If the Nuggets get just one more player either hitting shots, defending, or doing *something* valuable, then Denver’s in a good spot with their bench rotation.

As mentioned above, I think Justin Holiday is more likely to play bench minutes for Denver than Zeke Nnaji, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Nuggets run into a team in the playoffs that calls for Zeke Nnaji to play a bit. Think of bigger teams with bigger, physical players in their frontcourt rotation like the Minnesota Timberwolves with Naz Reid or the New Orleans Pelicans with Zion Williamson. If the Nuggets run a switching defense and constantly get a smaller guard or wing switched onto bigs, then they’re liable to give up some easy baskets in the middle of the paint. Adding another big body next to Gordon makes some sense in those moments.

In other moments, the Nuggets may have to chase around guards or wings on the perimeter and need to avoid giving up three-pointers. Holiday makes sense as part of a rotation vs the Oklahoma City Thunder because he can navigate those situations. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will get his, but Holiday is more likely to do a better job defensively on the perimeter than Nnaji is.

All in all, it comes down to matchups. If the Nuggets face the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs, they might want Nnaji and Gordon out there together in the second unit to match up with Dallas’ suddenly impressive frontcourt size. If the Nuggets face the Sacramento Kings, give me Justin Holiday switching onto De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter instead.

I think Denver begins with a nine-man rotation with one of Holiday or Nnaji and goes from there.

My friend Matt Moore over at The Action Network and Locked On Nuggets is tracking the officiating changes, and he says that he started noticing things change around February 9th, just before the All-Star Break.

Let’s look at the scoring numbers for Nikola Jokic before and after that point:

Before February 9th (50 games): 26.3 PPG, 58.4 FG%, 36.1 3P%, 5.8 FTAs/gm, 81.9 FT%

After February 9th (16 games): 24.6 PPG, 57.0 FG%, 29.5 3P%, 4.5 FTAs/gm, 86.5 FT%

So far since that break, Jokic’s free throw attempts are down from 5.8 to 4.5 per game. By comparison, here are other leading free throw shooters before the change and their marginal shift since February 9th:

  • Nikola Jokic: -1.3 FTAs/gm
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo: -0.3
  • Luka Doncic: -1.5
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -0.8
  • Jimmy Butler: -0.7
  • Damian Lillard: -2.7
  • Paolo Banchero: -1.2
  • DeMar DeRozan: +2.1
  • Devin Booker: -0.6
  • Zion Williamson: -0.4
  • Jayson Tatum: -0.7

That’s a lot of drop-off across the league, outside of DeMar DeRozan who’s been balling out for the last month. Looking at those numbers though, it’s still probably important to not make any sweeping conclusions. As stated above, it’s just a 16-game sample size for Jokic, and part of his points per game dropoff is also coming from a small dip in three-point percentage.

When we say that these officiating trends would “benefit Joker” though, what we really mean is “impact Joker least” and outside of games vs the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks, I’d say that’s been accurate.

The one thing you never really want heading into the playoffs (outside of injuries and excessive losing as stated above) is a prolonged shooting slump for a role player. With stars, they’re often able to dig themselves out of it when the time comes, flipping the proverbial switch as it were. With role players, it’s a bit different.

Fortunately, it’s been a while since this scenario has really hurt Denver.

In the 2018-19 season, coming off of hip surgery, Will Barton shot under 39% from the field and 34% from three post All-Star Break. Barton was ultimately benched in favor of Torrey Craig midway through the first round, not entirely his fault (because Jamal Murray couldn’t really guard Derrick White) but Barton also shot 1-of-13 from three in the three games he started. Of course, it may not even be fair to Barton since he was coming off of surgery anyway.

The 2019-20 season was obviously affected by COVID, and the 2020-21 season was affected by a massive amount of guard injuries to close the year, including Murray’s season-ending injury. The 2021-22 season wasn’t a great example because of how overburdened Denver’s entire roster was. Last year, the Nuggets won the championship and everybody played well despite not closing the season well.

If there’s one name I’m watching that’s comparable to the Barton situation, it’s probably Reggie Jackson. Since December 6th when Murray returned more permanently from his early hamstring injury, Jackson is shooting 40.0% from the field and 32.9% from three in 47 games. Jackson has scored in double digits just once since the break, and it was 11 points on 5-of-14 shooting against the Washington Wizards.

So, the last game the Nuggets played vs the Dallas Mavericks is an example currently in everybody’s mind: the Nuggets got absolutely crushed on the glass. Dallas had big bodies out there vs Denver’s smaller second unit that features Murray, Holiday, Braun, Watson, and Nnaji.

That lasted for roughly two minutes in the early fourth quarter because the group got absolutely smoked on the defensive rebounding side of things. From the beginning of the quarter to a rage timeout by Michael Malone, the Mavericks grabbed five offensive rebounds in two minutes. It was brutal.

On the season, the lineup listed above has a defensive rebounding rate of 51.4% on Cleaning the Glass, which is so abhorrently bad it ranks in the 0th percentile. Individually, it’s easy to point to an issue: Zeke Nnaji. As far as centers go, Nnaji’s 11.2% defensive rebounding rate would rank last among all qualified centers on Stathead. Nnaji’s hands are poor, and he struggles to secure rebounds while boxing out a larger player.

But it’s not just Nnaji. The Nuggets run a switching defensive system that often drags Nnaji onto the perimeter to guard in isolation. Asking him to both guard on the perimeter and rebound on the interior at the same time is just stupid. The rest of the Nuggets have to get involved on the glass, and there’s just not enough involvement.

Peyton Watson is an undersized power forward being asked to play the position with the second group, but he’s the next guy to look at in these situations. On NBA.com, Watson grabs just 52.4% of his rebounding chances, which ranks 161st out 168 listed forwards. By comparison, Nnaji grabs 55.1% of his rebounding chances which ranks 51st out of 67 listed centers. Nnaji’s not good, but Watson is worse at converting those rebounds.

Christian Braun ranks 17th out of 162 listed guards. Jamal Murray ranks 34th out of 162 guards. Justin Holiday is often on the perimeter, but he mixes it up when he’s on the glass too.

To answer the original question, I think it’s a combination of both. Watson and Nnaji are the main culprits on the defensive glass, but if Denver’s going to play three guards next to them, they’re asking to get burned by a bigger team. When the time comes in the playoffs, I doubt that this lineup sees that much time, if any at all, because of that particular weakness. It’s not difficult for an opposing team to exploit.

Will Denver be better in the playoffs when they’re a bit more locked into the details? Probably. That locked in nature has to come from Braun and Watson mostly, as well as maybe introducing some more Michael Porter Jr. into the bench minutes.