The Denver Nuggets are now 20 games through the still-young 2018-19 NBA season. Currently, Denver sits six games above .500 with a 13-7 record and are just a half game out of first place in the Western Conference.
Denver is the only Western Conference team ranked in the top-10 in offensive and defensive efficiency and they currently own the third-best net rating in the league as well. So far, it has been the Nuggets defense leading them to 13 wins in their first 20 games, but the Nuggets offense still searching to find a rhythm. Overall, Denver is still one of the best teams in the West and the NBA as a whole.
There is plenty to dissect from the Nuggets play through 20 games and the scribes at Mile High Sports have got you covered on what to take away from it all.
Has Denver overachieved or underachieved so far?
T.J. McBride: This is going to sound insane, but they have underachieved so far this season. Defensively, they may be overachieving, but a resurgent Paul Millsap combined with a rebuilt — and more aggressive — defensive scheme has led to the entire Nuggets’ roster buying in defensively. Their effort and execution, as well as a healthy Millsap, are the only real differences from last season which does not make it a drastic overachievement to me.
The reason they have underachieved in my mind is because Nikola Jokic has yet to look as dominant as was to finish out the 2017-18 season and the Denver offense has yet to find their rhythm. When watching the Nuggets on offense, it is very clear how much less lethal they have been through the first 20 games. 3-point shots have yet to fall, Jokic has yet to take over games on a consistent basis, and both Gary Harris and Jamal Murray are searching for their footing as scorers.
If all of those issues start to dissipate, and Denver’s roster gets healthy, this Denver team is going to quickly show the rest of the NBA just how talented they are and how their 13-7 start is not Denver overachieving in anyway.
Dev Johnson: I think that Denver has overachieved so far for one reason: they are a third seed in the almighty Western Conference and are just a half a game removed from the top overall seed.
Denver has made massive improvements from where they were last season. They are now a top defensive team which was their biggest area of concern heading into the season. Inversely, they have lost to teams they should beat such as the Nets. That same issue has come back to bite them late in the season in back to back seasons.
Still, this is a team that is really exciting and getting it done in different ways. That is something that fans should be excited about.
Brandon Ewing: This question is tough to answer considering how the Nuggets got off to a 9-1 start and then proceeded to lose six of their next seven games. The Nuggets absolutely overachieved to start the season, but then it is also fair to say that they underachieved after getting off to such a hot start. With that being the case, I’ll say the Nuggets have overachieved so far just because of how well they began the season and how much better they have played as of late.
The Nuggets have already picked up some big time victories this season that make their surprising start a bit of a surprise. Beating the Los Angeles Clippers on the road to begin the season was a great start as the Nuggets followed it up by defeating the defending champion Golden State Warriors just four day laters. Those two wins coupled with victories over the New Orleans Pelicans, Boston Celtics, and Oklahoma City Thunder (on the road) prove just how well the Nuggets have played to begin the season.
With a home record of 8-3 and road record of 5-4, the Nuggets have been able to defend their home court fairly well, while also picking up some big time road wins in the process. Denver is also 6-0 on back-to-backs this season and how shown a knack for coming upon clutch in times where maybe Nuggets teams of the past would not perform in those big moments. Through 20 games though this Nuggets team certainly seems to be different, and their record is a indication of that.
Who has been Denver’s MVP so far?
T.J. McBride: Through 20 games, this question is much harder to answer than I anticipated. Of course, Jokic is their best player, but he has not quite been the dominating force that many expected him to be. In addition to Jokic’s struggles, Harris and Murray both have had their ups-and-downs throughout the season. That leaves just one answer: Paul Millsap.
Denver’s defense has taken massive steps forward and everything starts with Millsap. During Millsap’s introductory press conference, he said that Nuggets’ head coach Michael Malone told him that Denver will be implementing a more aggressive defensive approach with Millsap in the fold. Now, about 18 months later, that more aggressive approach is finally paying dividends and Millsap is the reason why.
He has been the defensive multi-tool that has unlocked this Nuggets defense and for that, he is the Nuggets’ MVP throughout the first 20 games of the season.
Dev Johnson: So far, Gary Harris has been Denver’s Most Valuable Player. It is a hard decision because so many people have been getting the job done for the Nuggets, but Harris has been the most consistent player so far, he gets it done on both ends of the floor, and his style of play is contagious. Although he is not shooting the ball particularly well at the moment, you can expect Harris’ shooting stroke to return eventually and, until then, Harris will continue to alter his game in multiple ways to find a way to produce.
Brandon Ewing: I’ll go with another unconventional answer here, but how great has the Nuggets’ bench unit been so far this season? The second unit of Monte Morris, Malik Beasley, Trey Lyles, Mason Plumlee, and a mix of either Jamal Murray or Gary Harris has been just phenomenal all year so far. The revelation of Morris as the Nuggets back up point guard has been the most important development. Simply stated, Morris is largely responsible for the success of the second unit. In addition to Morris’ play, Plumlee has become arguably the best back-up center in the entire NBA.
On the season, Morris currently has 81 assists and just 11 turnovers, which puts him second in the NBA in assist/turnover ratio at 7.36 assist per turnover. Not only is Morris affecting the Nuggets offense in a positive way, but he has also played extremely well defensively and is averaging just under one steal per game. Morris has also been huge in Plumlee performing so well with the second unit. Plumlee and Morris have developed a nice two-man game off the bench and now Plumlee is averaging 6.9 points, five rebounds, and two assists per game in just 17 minutes per game.
Morris and Plumlee have been huge all year and have helped Denver’s bench unit average 38.5 points per game through 20 games, which is good for 11th in the NBA. Denver’s bench unit is also shooting 48.3 percent from the field, which is good for fourth in the NBA. It has not just been offense though as Denver’s bench unit has the fifth-highest net rating in the league as well. Those stats are indicative of how much Denver’s bench unit has grown and why their success makes them Denver’s MVP so far this season.
Can Denver finish the year as a top-5 defensive team?
T.J. McBride: Over the course of the first 20 games of the season, I have been waiting for Denver’s defensive determination to take a nose dive, but it has not. It genuinely seems like the entire roster is bought in on that end of the floor, and because of that, I think Denver has the ability to finish as top-five defensive team in the NBA. The odds may not be greatly in their favor, but the fact that they have been a top-five defensive team for the majority of the first 20 games of the season is enough for me to believe that there is a chance.
Dev Johnson: I do not think that this level of play is sustainable, especially with Will Barton scheduled to come back and Isaiah Thomas also set to make an appearance later on down the line, but I do think this team has made massive strides on the defensive end of the floor.
The whole Nuggets team is playing well together on defense, there is plenty of weak-side effort, and they help each other out. There is much more effort being shown on that end of the floor. Having Paul Millsap back has been huge as well. He is the defensive anchor that is helping the team in many ways. There has also been a buy-in from the entire roster which may be the biggest factor to Denver’s defensive improvement.
I do expect the defense to fall off a bit soon, but not enough to make them a bottom-half defense. I think they will finish as a middle-of-the-pack defense, but even that is an improvement from previous years.
Brandon Ewing: The Nuggets currently rank fourth in the NBA with a defensive rating of 104 and only trail the Memphis Grizzlies, Boston Celtics, and Oklahoma City Thunder. Denver is just under a single point better than the Toronto Raptors, who are currently ranked as the seventh-best team in defensive rating. Still, I think the Nuggets absolutely have a chance to finish the year as a top-five defense. So far this year, Denver has constantly been a top-five defense all season long.
The Nuggets defense is no anomaly. Having a healthy Paul Milllsap and Nikola Jokic buying in on defense shows that the Nuggets really have flipped the script on the defensive end of the floor. Denver is playing with maximum effort night-in and night-out. If the Nuggets keep their defensive effort up, there is no doubt they could finish a top-five defense when the season is all said and done.
Is Denver being 13-7 better or worse than you expected?
T.J. McBride: I picked Denver to win 51 games to start the year and they are on pace to win just about 53 games. By that math, Denver is slightly better than I expected, but I am not stunned they have won 13 of their first 20 games.
Dev Johnson: Better than expected for me. I did not think there would be this kind of improvement on the defensive end. Being able to play strong defense and hold opponents to under 100 points against a Denver — who has been known for their offense — is a success within itself.
They have been able to take that show on the road as well and that has been a reason that they have started out strong. The Western conference is a dog fight each night. For Denver to be a top-three team in the Western Conference after 20 games is as good as anyone could ask for.
Brandon Ewing: Better than I expected just because of the teams Denver has faced and how many big time wins they have picked up already this season. Sure, losing six out of seven games was not ideal, but Denver has still been able to weather the storm and have now won three-straight games. The Nuggets are not just winning at home, but on the road as well with two of those wins being in Minnesota and Oklahoma City.
The schedule certainly gets tougher with five of their next six games on the road with some tough matchups at the Pepsi Center sprinkled in as well. We will certainly learn a lot about the Nuggets over the next few weeks, but if we did learn one thing through 20 games, it is that this team is resilient. Whether thing are going good, bad or in between, the Nuggets have not made any excuses this season and have brought their best effort in every game. That is why they should be happy with the 13-7 record.
