The Denver Nuggets currently reside as the second-best team in the Western Conference with a record of 39-18, which puts them just two games behind the Golden State Warriors for first place in the West.
After a tremendous first 57 games, the Nuggets are officially primed to end a five-year postseason drought as they have an eight-game lead over the eighth seeded Los Angeles Clippers. A playoff berth is just the start of what could be an extremely exciting run for this Nuggets team, but it is going to take a strong finish to the regular season in order to make it happen.
So, the scribes at Mile High Sports got together to examine that and more in our latest roundtable on what to expect from Denver to close out the regular season.
With 25 games remaining, what is the worst and best case scenarios for the Nuggets?
Brandon Ewing: The obvious best-case scenario for the Nuggets is to secure home court in the first round of the playoffs. In order to do that, Denver has to finish as a top four seed in the Western Conference, which right now seems like a very real possibility. A lot can change in 25 games, but the Nuggets currently hold a seven-game lead on Portland for the fourth-seed and an eight-game lead over Houston for the fifth-seed. It would take a major collapse for Denver to fall that much in the standings, which means the Nuggets should just have to play above .500 basketball in order to secure home court in the first round of the playoffs.
Duvalier Johnson: The best-case scenario for the Nuggets is that not only do we get to see the original starting five finally get to play together, which has not happened since the second game of the season, but that Denver also stays relatively healthy for their impending playoff push. The Nuggets are at the point that it would take an epic collapse to miss the playoffs so securing a playoff spot as early as possible and re-integrating players back into the rotation is paramount.
The worst case scenario is that the Nuggets suffer yet another injury and start losing games which would lead to Denver falling into a lower seed. Injuries have plagued the Nuggets all season and the team finally seems to be mostly healthy again, they just have to make a push and continue to win games. A matchup with the Houston Rockets would not be ideal. The Nuggets cannot afford any losing streaks.
Jena Garcia: In a best-case scenario, the Nuggets return from the All-Star break healthy and refreshed. In addition to being healthy, winning all 12 home games would also be a part of a best-case scenario. With the best home record in the NBA, this would be an accomplishment that is not out of reach. If they also were to split their remaining road games, Denver would end the season with a 57-25 record which would tie the franchise record for most regular season wins in a single season.
If we are being as pessimistic as possible, the Nuggets final 25-game stretch would include more losses away from the Pepsi Center. Denver still has 13 roads games left. If they were to drop all 13 games, which is very unlikely based on their road record this season, the Nuggets could find themselves in a tough spot. Losing a lot of games on the road would set Denver up for an less ideal opponent in the first round of playoffs.
Luke Zahlmann: The best-case scenario for the Denver Nuggets is well outside of their control. For the team to truly encompass their utopian final stretch, Golden State needs to fall apart to a degree. Of their final 25 games, the Nuggets can bypass the Warriors if they match records with the defending champs and also win their two games against Golden State. Taking control of the top seed and ensuring home-court advantage would be the ideal case for a team that is 25-4 at home, but only 14-14 away from the Pepsi Center.
The worst-case scenario is a nightmare for the Nuggets because the one thing that could hurt Denver the most is the same issue they have been dealing with all year — injuries. As a team that has been without Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap and even Jamal Murray for stretches, the Nuggets have fought their way through the year, buoyed by their depth. The feat is highly unlikely to continue in the postseason, with many of their opponents fielding full-strength lineups.
The Nuggets could have many members of their organization up for awards at the end of the season. Nikola Jokic could be in the running Most Valuable Player, Michael Malone should be near the top of the list for Coach of the Year, Tim Connelly could win Executive of the Year, Malik Beasley could sneak into the Most Improved Player of the Year conversation, and Monte Morris may win Sixth Man of the Year if he keeps playing the way he has been? Which player, coach, or executive is most likely to win an award?
Brandon Ewing: An extremely tough question considering how many players, coaches, and executives deserve an award for the success Denver has seen this season. I’ll go with the man that built it all though in Tim Connelly for Executive of the Year.
With how big of a part free agency plays in the success of NBA teams today, it is seldom that teams are formed via draft picks that stay with the same franchise for an extended period of time. But, that is exactly what Tim Connelly has built in Denver. Most of the Nuggets roster is filled with home grown talent. Whether it is second-round gems like Nikola Jokic and Monte Morris, or drafting Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, and Malik Beasley in the first round, the Nuggets now have a roster built for sustained success.
Connelly has been pulling the right strings for awhile now and Executive of the Year would give him the recognition he truly deserves.
Duvalier Johnson: The most likely member of the Nuggets to be up for an award is head coach Michael Malone. The Nuggets have been knocking on the door for multiple years now and it is now looking as if they have finally figured it out; they are winning games, getting national attention and are near the top of the Western Conference standing. One of the biggest reasons for that is Malone.
He has come in and set high standards, changed to outlook from a national perspective, is highly respected, and is coming off of coaching the Team LeBron in the All-Star game. In addition to being an All-Star coach, Malone is also going to continue his streak of Denver improving each season that he has coached them.
Malone has to be the favorite for Coach of the Year at this point. I fully expect for him to take home Coach of the Year honors; especially if Denver finishes strong.
Jena Garcia: The Nuggets have many strong candidates for various awards, but the one I think stands out the most this season is Monte Morris for Sixth Man of the Year. Not only has he been the most consistent point guard on the roster, but he has also been one of the most efficient in the league. He ranks second in the league for assist-to-turnover ratio and is also hitting 43.1 percent of his 3-point shots. Aside from his stats, Morris has stepped up in big-game moments as a facilitator and as a scorer. Morris deserves to be in the conversations for Sixth Man of the Year.
Luke Zahlmann: For the Nuggets, the most likely member of the franchise to take home hardware this year is head coach Michael Malone.
Prior to the year, according to ESPN, the Nuggets were projected to go 47-35, a mere one-win increase from last year. Through 57 games, they’re already at 39 wins, on pace to easily bypass their projection. Making the playoffs, with over 50 wins, despite the gluttony of injuries, should put Malone towards the top of the frontrunners.
In a loaded MVP race, Nikola Jokic is unlikely to garner the favor of national media, while Pascal Siakam and Lou Williams are looking like better candidates for their respective awards as well. Tim Connelly’s draft picks are beginning to rear their head, leading the team in the face of injuries, but the lack of an impact addition in the offseason or during the season likely knocks him out of the running as well.
Malone’s chances are very real though.
Time for final predictions. With 25 games remaining, what record and seed will the Nuggets finish the season with and why?
Brandon Ewing: I still do not think the Nuggets have garnered the respect in NBA circles that they deserve. Teams are expecting Denver to eventually have a decline this season and it just has not happened yet. Even with a tough remaining schedule, this Nuggets team has shown they are mentally tough enough to overcome different challenges and obstacles that are constantly thrown their way.
With 25 games remaining, the Nuggets will finish the regular season 17-8, which will be good second place in the Western Conference (56-26). Jokic will have an incredibly strong finish to the regular season, which hopefully provides Denver the momentum to walk away victorious from a first-round playoff series. Locking up the second seed also allows the Nuggets to bypass the Warriors until the Western Conference Finals, where the Nuggets would have a fighters chance if they make it that far.
Duvalier Johnson: I think that there will be a slight decline from the Nuggets with them trying to get players back up to speed. Malone will be tasked with having to work back in Isaiah Thomas, who finally came back after a 11-month hiatus and looked good in his few minutes, along with a player in Monte Morris who has been better than expected at the same position. Will Barton and Gary Harris have both also missed time due to injury and have to continue getting in the swing of things. The defense still has so many questions that need to be answered. With that being said, I expect the Nuggets to go 15-10 which puts their overall record at 54-28 to close out the season and also drop into the third seed.
Jena Garcia: My final prediction for this last stretch of the season is that the Nuggets take seven of 13 games on the road and only lose to Golden State twice, Boston, Houston Oklahoma city and Indiana. I also have Denver winning all but two of their 12 home games. That would leave the Nuggets with a 56-26 record at the end of the regular season and would lock them into the second seed in the Western Conference.
Luke Zahlmann: For the final stretch, I believe the Nuggets defensive woes are going to begin to take a toll. A pair of road matchups in Golden State and road games in Oklahoma City, Houston, Boston, Indiana and Portland will also play a role.
They will still finish with a top-four record in the Western Conference, with a scorching Paul George-led Oklahoma City squad passing them down the stretch.
Their final span will yield a 14-11 record, bringing their season total to 53-29, tied for their sixth-best record in franchise history and good for the third seed in the West.
For their sake, the Nuggets need to get whatever seed allows them to avoid Houston in the first round, otherwise known as their worst nightmare with a healthy Clint Capela and James Harden leading the way.
