This is the week Broncos fans have been waiting for since their season-finale, last-second loss to the Raiders in early January.
That seems like forever ago. Partially because we’re still in this pandemic, and partly because so much has happened with the Broncos already this offseason.
John Elway stepped away from personnel decisions and George Paton was hired to take his place. Paton changes everything for Denver because after a decade with Elway in charge, we basically knew what to expect. Elway would have likely already worked a new restructured deal with Von Miller because the Duke of Denver was fiercely loyal to his draft picks and Miller was the first player selected by Elway back in 2011.
Now, we’ve come down to the wire for Miller as well as Kareem Jackson, both of whom have team options and each of them could be let go if their option isn’t picked up by Tuesday.
Miller is due to be a $22.3 million cap hit this year, but coming off an injury-ended season and at 32 years old, it’s hard to argue he’s worth that much. Even if he is likely the greatest defender in Denver history.
On Tuesday, $7 million of that guarantees, meaning the Broncos would have to pick up the option and pay him the total. It seems likely they’re working with him on a restructure, but if they can’t get one done, the Broncos will take a $4.2M cap hit in dead money. Still, cutting ties with Miller would save the team $17.5M towards the cap this year, which is about half of what they already have ($32.6M).
Spotrac puts Miller’s “market value” at $10.3M per year, which seems much more reasonable. But, time is running out to strike a new deal.
The same goes with Jackson, another veteran who’s been valuable to Denver’s defense the last two years. Together, he and Justin Simmons have made up the best safety duo in the NFL, but the 34-year old will make $12.8M, with $1.5M of that guaranteeing on Tuesday.
Ideally, Denver can restructure Jackson, but Paton may want to move on from him and play, say, Will Parks. If they let Jackson walk, it will save $10 million towards the cap and then Paton could take that money and pay Parks around $1.5M.
And the Broncos are expected to do mostly that, pay their own free agents. Miller seems likely for a restructure — even though waiting this long is somewhat sketchy — and Parks could be retained for relatively cheap.
Others who are probable to be kept include Shelby Harris and hopefully Jeremiah Attaochu. Harris is one of the most dominant interior defenders when it comes to batting down balls at the line of scrimmage, and he knows how to get pressures, too. Attaochu has been a great backup edge rusher, racking up 8.5 sacks combined the last two years, and four of them came in the final five games with Denver last year.
Harris has been a steal in his three years with the Broncos, making a mere $600k and $715k his first two years, and then just north of $3M per year the last two seasons. If they can re-sign him for $3-4 million, Denver absolutely should. Not only is he a key interior defender, the Broncos also cut inside man Jurrell Casey this offseason.
As for Attaochu, if the Broncos can sign him for around $1.5M per again, they should as well. He’s a solid backup edge rusher and could be called on to contribute more if Miller is let go.
Other key free agents on the team Phillip Lindsay, Alexander Johnson and Tim Patrick have all already been tendered, so if another team wants to sign them, Denver can match or be compensated with a draft pick.
As for other free agents out there, where could Denver look to bolster their roster?
Likely at cornerback after cutting ties with A.J. Bouye.
There are a ton of solid corners in the market, too. Patrick Peterson is older, at 31, and he was actually taken in the same first round as Miller back in 2011. But Peterson can still play and has the experience to lead youngster Michael Ojemudia. Even in his down years the last two seasons, Peterson racked up five interceptions with 15 passes defended and a fumble and a sack.
Spotrac says he’s likely to make $10.4M this year, but that seems worth it for a top-tier, albeit older, talent.
Another option is Malcolm Butler, formerly of the Tennessee Titans. He actually tied his career-high with four interceptions last year and earned a 74.5 grade from Pro Football Focus, the 15th-best among CBs.
One more tantalizing possibility is Xavier Rhodes, formerly of the Indianapolis Colts. Rhodes was the 9th-best cornerback last year per PFF (77.3 grade) and he enjoyed two picks and 12 passes defensed in 2020. It seems unlikely the Colts will let him go, but Spotrac places his market value at $7.3M per year, which Denver should jump on if true.
With the “legal tampering” period beginning on Monday, teams can start negotiating with free agents and deals usually get leaked, even though they can’t be finalized until Wednesday.
Expect the Broncos to make many moves starting on Monday; at cornerback, likely competition at quarterback and also signing many of their own free agents.
