On Sunday, the Memphis Grizzlies and Orlando Magic completed a trade that, in theory, should make the Grizzlies worse and the Magic better.
Desmond Bane went to the Magic, and the Grizzlies acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, FOUR first round picks, and a pick swap. Bane is a really good player and will help the Magic a lot, but the Grizzlies did well in that deal and should be well positioned to make future moves to stay in the playoff race if they so choose.
That deal happened on June 15th. The NBA Draft starts next Wednesday on June 24th, and there’s expected to be a lot of action before, during, and after that could shift the landscape of the league.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Western Conference as it currently stands and where the Nuggets stack up before all of the moves happen. This exercise should showcase the aggressiveness with which most teams around Denver are going to operate to try and get better to compete with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors: 48-34, 7th in West
The Warriors will do what they can to get better around Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green, but the reality is they’re in a tough spot. Jonathan Kuminga is a restricted free agent and will command some money, perhaps $15 to 20 million per season. They can’t pay him and also add significant talent via the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) unless they traded one of Buddy Hield or Moses Moody. The Warriors will try to recruit some free agents for cheap, but unless they trade one of their top three, it’s difficult to foresee them getting much better that where they are.
Los Angeles Clippers: 50-32, 5th in West
The Clippers are probably going to re-sign James Harden to another contract after the season he had in LA. They have a lot of interesting pieces around Harden and Kawhi Leonard, but there’s concern that those two can’t be the top two on a regular squad with championship hopes. The Clippers will try to be aggressive to add talent, and that might mean going star hunting. They probably won’t get anyone at that level, but they will probably have room at the MLE to at least add a good role player in free agency.
Los Angeles Lakers: 50-32, 3rd in West
The Lakers got Luka Doncic which is good enough for the next few years. However, they’re the Lakers, so they’re going for it all. They desperately need a center and will try to add one either via trade, Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (TP-MLE) or both. They also need to fill out their rotation with as many two-way players as they can to cover for Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves in a regular season context next year. They will be dangerous no matter what, but especially if they find the right big man at the right price.
Phoenix Suns: 36-46, 11th in West
The Belle of the Basketball this year. Kevin Durant is available and rumors are flying already. The Suns will trade Durant for the best package they can get and try to reset their team around Devin Booker. It will likely take time though. Coincidentally, the amount of time I think it will take is about the same time as Bradley Beal’s two-year contract and preexisting No-Trade Clause. The Suns are selling though. They will be just as bad or worse next season I’d think. Expect veterans like Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale to also be available to help the Suns get cheaper.
Sacramento Kings: 40-42, 9th in West
The Kings, like usual, are stuck in NBA purgatory. They traded Tyrese Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox. Now, shockingly, they need a point guard. How aggressive they get to find said point guard will be interesting. Are they looking for a new star? They can’t really afford it. Are they looking for a quality starter? That might be doable via trade. The easiest solution is a stopgap option like Malcolm Brogdon, Tyus Jones, or even Russell Westbrook in free agency. That’s not going to change their future though, and they are likely to be about .500 again.
Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks: 39-43, 10th in West
The Mavericks are clearing the runway for Cooper Flagg and will likely start him at small forward next to Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II next year. Where that leaves P.J. Washington is a mystery to me, unless Davis slides to center again which I’m sure he desperately wants to do. Unfortunately, with Kyrie Irving sidelined due to an ACL tear, this season feels like a lost one for the Mavericks. Do they keep things together while Irving is out? Do they pivot to a rebuild around Flagg and move a litany of good veterans they’ve accumulated? Time will tell, but they will probably still be 10th or so.
Houston Rockets: 52-30, 2nd in West
The Rockets used an elite defense to overachieve in the regular season, but after a first round exit vs the Warriors, many are expecting them to get aggressive and find some veteran scoring. It’s up to Houston how aggressive they want to be. They already retained backup center Steven Adams on a good contract. Next up is Fred VanVleet’s big player option. He’s likely to return, but if the Rockets wanted to pivot and add a different playmaking guard in place of him or Jalen Green, they certainly have the assets to make almost anything happen. Still, there’s “backslide” potential here if the Rockets stand pat.
Memphis Grizzlies: 48-34, 8th in West
The aforementioned Grizzlies traded a big salary in Desmond Bane for more manageable salary in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony. That made the team worse, but depending on what the Grizzlies do the rest of this offseason, they could still get better. There’s enough salary cap flexibility to sign a new free agent, though the class is relatively weak at the top. If the Grizzlies decide to go the other way and try to get worse though, players like Caldwell-Pope, Anthony, and Brandon Clarke could be veterans available on the trade market. Whatever the case, I wouldn’t expect the Grizzlies to stay at 8th. Either they get better or worse.
New Orleans Pelicans: 21-61, 14th in West
The Pelicans were bad this last year, and the recent reports indicate everyone is available. That realistically doesn’t include Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, or Herb Jones though. That mix of veteran talent is strong. Players like CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray, and Kelly Olynyk are likely available for young players and picks though. It’s clear that the Pelicans need to retool and get better, but HOW they do that is a major question.
San Antonio Spurs: 34-48, 13th in West
The Spurs acquired De’Aaron Fox last year but weren’t well positioned to use him after Victor Wembanyama went out for the season. he’s back though, and Stephon Castle will be better in his second season, and the Spurs have the second pick in the draft, and they have financial freedom to add to their squad. They are DEFINITELY getting better. The question is how much better and how soon their young players become more reliable night to night.
Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets: 50-32, 4th in West
The Nuggets are very clearly in the group of teams behind Oklahoma City hoping to surprise them from year-to-year going forward. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon will combine to earn nearly $163 million in 2025-26. Assuming Dario Saric opts into his team option, the Nuggets currently have $33.2 million tied up in the next eight players. That doesn’t include Russell Westbrook, who will opt out of his player option and explore free agency.
The Nuggets will have access to the TP-MLE to sign a free agent, but otherwise, all they can offer to free agents is minimum contracts. It’s difficult to see Denver improving significantly, but perhaps they don’t need to in order to win a championship. They simply must be good enough to cross a threshold and hang around for the right moment.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 49-33, 6th in West
Outside of the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns, the Timberwolves have the most difficult salary cap structure to manage in the NBA. Julius Randle and Naz Reid have player options but are expected to out opt and become free agents. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is already a free agent. Apparently, the Timberwolves are seriously exploring the idea of Kevin Durant. That would drastically change their squad, and how they manage it would be a feat. Still, it’s difficult to expect the T’Wolves to get much worse with Anthony Edwards still getting better every year.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 68-14, 1st in West
There’s little to say here. The Thunder are well positioned to be a dynasty in a modern era featuring parity. Their entire roster is eligible to come back next year, but most likely, they will make some sort of consolidation trade on the fringes of their roster and continue adding young talent to an already young core. They’re not going anywhere for a long time.
Portland Trail Blazers: 36-46, 12th in West
The Blazers have a roster mixed with veterans and young players that’s trying to trend upward without really having a “best player” outside of Anfernee Simons. Deni Avdija was actually their best player last year, but they’re likely to continue the cycle of being bad until they hit some lottery luck or one of their young guys pops. Some of their veterans (Simons, Deandre Ayton, Jerami Grant, Robert Williams, and Matisse Thybulle) are likely available for trade now or in the near future.
Utah Jazz: 17-65, 15th in West
The Jazz got hosed in the draft lottery after being the worst team in the NBA. They will draft fifth and hope to land a game-changing prospect. In the meantime, Lauri Markkanen can be available for a high, high price. The same goes for Walker Kessler. There’s a lower price on John Collins, Collin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson, veterans the Jazz will eventually need to let go of to get a good feel for the young players they’re adding to the rotation.
Right now, if I had to put the Western Conference in tiers, they would be as follows:
- Top Of The Food Chain: Oklahoma City
- Strong Playoff Contender: Denver, Minnesota, LA Lakers, LA Clippers
- Regular Season Strong: Houston, Golden State
- Purgatory Until Proven Otherwise: San Antonio, Memphis, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix, Portland
- A Bad Team: New Orleans, Utah
As every team tries to find a way to join OKC at the top, it’s important to remember that the Nuggets are just as close as anyone. That doesn’t make them the biggest threat though, especially as other teams scramble to get better by adding new talent, shifting their finances, and selling off draft picks.
The Nuggets have done all of that already. As I highlighted above, unless they’re willing or able to break up the salary of their top four players in some way that doesn’t make the team drastically worse, it’s difficult to see them finding a way to improve at the same rate I expect other teams will. If Denver’s going to improve, it will be because Peyton Watson took a step forward, or Julian Strawther was unlocked, or Christian Braun developed a more consistent scoring game.
Denver doesn’t have to have any of those things happen to win a championship though. Realistically, any team in Denver’s tier or above can win a championship. It will simply be about maximizing opportunities and odds. If the Nuggets aren’t exhausting every way to get better, they’re likely falling behind what’s expected to be a pretty wild arms race in the Western Conference this offseason.
