Most people would guess the Denver Broncos defense is better than the Patriots, but the New England Patriots defensive DVOA has been better than Denver’s since Week 10.
Yes, the Broncos defense has faded a bit since midseason, especially in the sack department, but the DVOA numbers are very interesting.
What it means for the AFC Championship Game this Sunday is Denver can’t overlook the Pats’ talented D.
New England Patriots defensive DVOA better than Denver Broncos since Week 10
As the Broncos defense waned down the stretch, New England’s defense got healthy and improved. Not just to end the regular season, but into the playoffs, too.
According to Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy, the New England Patriots defensive DVOA was better than the Broncos the second half of the season.
This will really surprise people.Based on DVOA, the Patriots defense has been a little better than the Broncos defense since Week 10.Remember that for defense, lower numbers are better.
What is DVOA?
According to FTN Fantasy, DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.
In the simplest of terms, DVOA is a mathematical way of evaluating how good a team is. It takes into account every play—like passer rating for a quarterback—but also adds context in terms of down and distance, time left in the contest, and much more.
A positive DVOA is good for an offense, while a negative DVOA is good for a defense.
And over the first half of the season, Denver’s D was 5th-best, but they’ve slipped to 12th per Schatz. Meanwhile, the Patriots have undergone a complete transformation from 26th early on and are now the 7th-best defense according to DVOA.
Where the Broncos have slipped slightly has been in the run game. And since Week 10, they have four games allowing 100-plus yards on the ground; 143 to the Commanders, 115 to the Packers, 113 to the Chargers, and 183 to the Bills last week. Denver needs to dig down deep to stop the run this week, as the Patriots bring TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson to the Mile High City.
AFC Championship Game could be a low-scoring battle
The best-case scenario for the Broncos is this AFC Championship Game is a low-scoring slugfest.
That type of game would benefit Denver, who’s playing without their starting quarterback in Bo Nix. Even with Nix, the Broncos offense isn’t as high-scoring nor explosive as the Pats, who finished the regular season second in scoring (28.8 points per game).
Denver wants a grind-it-out kind of game, full of turnovers, which would give them the best chance of winning.
The Broncos defense needs to play as similarly as possible to last week’s Divisional Round win over the Bills, when they had five forced turnovers. The possibility is there for Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, and Zach Allen to not only sack Drake Maye, but force him to fumble. Maye’s fumbled a wild six times in two playoff games and lost three of them.
Meanwhile, Denver’s offense was already struggling at times with Nix at QB, and they could be really stagnant with Jarrett Stidham. Or they could move the ball just fine! No one really knows for sure.
What we do know is the Patriots are playing great defense and will be tough to move the ball against.
And Denver is not likely to have J.K. Dobbins back, who would give their run game a major boost.
While Dobbins practiced the last two days, they were both in limited capacity. He’s going to need to be a full participant today to have a chance to play, and Mike Klis said at the beginning of the week there’s “no way” he would play vs. the Patriots.
That means RJ Harvey, who’s been the team’s starter since Week 10 when Dobbins went down with the foot injury, would be asked to be in that role once again. Harvey only had 20 yards rushing against the Bills, but he also only had six carries in the game.
Sean Payton’s game plan will be quite interesting to keep an eye on this week, with Stidham at quarterback, especially if Dobbins doesn’t play.
If things go to plan for Denver’s defense, they’ll force turnovers and limit the Patriots scoring. That would set the offense up with their best shot at putting a few touchdowns on the board and winning their way to Super Bowl LX.
Patriots vs. Broncos in the AFC Championship kicks off at 1 p.m. MT on Sunday, Jan. 25 on CBS and Paramount+.
