The Denver Nuggets didn’t come ready to play tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers. In an arena that oozed with playoff intensity at tipoff and throughout the game, the Nuggets laid an egg, losing 123-100 in blowout fashion.
The new-look Los Angeles Lakers were the real deal with Luka Doncic and LeBron James at the helm. Doncic had 32 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists in his best game as a member of the Lakers, shooting 4-of-9 from three-point range and 8-of-8 from the free throw line. He was the best player on the floor, and the next best guy was James, who had 25 points, nine rebounds, and five assists while playing excellent defense the entire evening.
The Nuggets appeared flummoxed by the Lakers defensive scheme that focused on denying Nikola Jokic the basketball. Jokic has just 12 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists, attempting seven total shots. The Lakers starting center, Jaxson Hayes, spent perhaps the least amount of time on Jokic of any frontcourt player. It was LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Dorian Finney-Smith that took turns playing high effort defense to deny Jokic. Then, when he did receive a double team, he didn’t make great decisions, shooting 2-of-7 from the field and accumulating six turnovers.
It was by far Jokic’s worst game of the season, and it emphasized just how far the Nuggets still have to go before they can call themselves championship caliber.
Obviously, it wasn’t just Jokic. I actually didn’t think he was the issue for much of the game but simply Denver’s inability to adjust to what the Lakers were doing. Jamal Murray shot 6-of-11 from three-point range but didn’t impact the game inside the arc, committing five turnovers and going -28 on the evening. Michael Porter Jr. missed a bunch of shots and a bunch of defensive reads at the beginning of the game, finishing with 13 points on 14 shots and going just 1-of-4 from three. Christian Braun looked uncomfortable attacking the paint off the dribble against this defensive scheme, though he was the only Nuggets starter to be a positive in the plus-minus in a game the Nuggets lost by 23.
Russell Westbrook looked like he was about to be a disaster against his former team, shooting perimeter jumpers again and again against the Lakers paint protecting scheme. His second half was better than his first half, and he looked to figure some things out later. Unfortunately, he was the only bench guy to make any discernible impact with Julian Strawther accumulating foul fouls in under 90 seconds in the first half, playing himself off the floor with foul trouble. Zeke Nnaji and DeAndre Jordan were fine, just fine. Hunter Tyson was Strawther’s first half replacement. That didn’t go well.
Independent of the result tonight, the Nuggets have mostly played great basketball for the last few weeks. The All-Star break took them out of their rhythm, but they racked up nine wins in a row and certainly looked like they were figuring things out in real time.
With Westbrook returning to the bench and the Nuggets starting unit whole again, the Nuggets have looked a bit uncomfortable and tentative on both ends of the floor in their last two games. They won against the Charlotte Hornets because the Hornets were on a back-to-back and didn’t have their starting point guard, shooting guard, power forward, or center available, but they certainly didn’t play well that night as a unit.
Last night, they ran into the first good team they’ve faced in a while and got shellacked. The Lakers brought an excellent game plan to the table and ratcheted up the intensity. Lakers head coach JJ Redick said after the game that he basically hadn’t slept since his team’s last game in an effort to concoct the right game plan and execute it against Jokic and the Nuggets. Redick and the Lakers, especially LeBron, clearly wanted this game badly, and they earned that win in a big way. The difference in effort was palpable, as was the ability to accomplish what both teams wanted to accomplish. The Nuggets looked lost for much of the game trying to get Jokic the ball in scoring position.
The question that every Nuggets (and NBA) fan wants to know: how much can be taken from this game?
One thing’s for certain: this is a different Lakers team. The style of play has changed tangibly, and with as many strong, physical forwards as there are on the roster, they do a great job of making up for a lack of center depth. They switched everything against the Nuggets defensively, and that left the Nuggets vulnerable on the offensive end against a team that can space Denver out entirely.
What’s less certain is how repeatable this game plan is for the Lakers. It certainly felt like Redick showed his cards for this one, and it’s a pretty great hand to have. The Lakers don’t have to be perfect defensively against Denver, but they have to cause enough chaos to turn Denver’s offense from elite to good in a playoff series, and they did better than that in this matchup. Forcing 20 turnovers against any team is a big deal.
Turnovers are actually where the story is for Denver this year. Among the four factors in the NBA, turnover rate isn’t seen as the most important by many. It can be the great equalizer, however, and it showed both teams’ comfort level last night. Denver turned nine Lakers turnovers into 11 points. Los Angeles turned 22 Nuggets turnovers into 39 points. For as uncomfortable as the Lakers made the Nuggets on one end, the Lakers didn’t feel the Nuggets on the other end. They were going against a pretty subpar defense from both an effort and execution standpoint, and it showed.
On Cleaning the Glass, nine of the top 10 defenses in the NBA also rank top 13 in turnover rate this season. That seems like a big deal. More than effort, the teams that force opponents to make mistakes, rather than the teams that force opponents to miss shots, are the ones that excel the most. The only top 10 defense that’s not in the top 13 in turnovers forced is the Boston Celtics. They rank 24th.
The Nuggets rank 25th. So what’s the difference between them and Boston defensively? Well, the Celtics rank top five in the other three “four factors” of effective field goal % allowed, offensive rebounding % allowed, and free throw rate allowed. The Nuggets? They rank 12th, 16th, and 4th respectively. That’s not terrible, but it’s not precise enough for the fact that Denver doesn’t take away possessions in a way that other good defenses can.
So, Denver’s defense isn’t good enough right now. Their offense can be schemed for. Are they in trouble? Kind of, but not really. There are two more matchups against Luka, LeBron, and the Lakers this regular season. i’m curious to see how both teams handle those matchups and if the Nuggets look to get revenge, if the Lakers go back to a more vanilla coverage, or if the result stays the same and the Nuggets can’t crack LA’s defense.
More than that though, the Nuggets got a real wakeup call here. They’ve been dominating subpar teams for most of the year, except when they lose in embarrassing fashion to teams like the Washington Wizards. Denver’s currently 7-13 against teams that rank top 10 in point differential of CTG. They’re 13-2 against middle 10 teams and 17-5 against bottom 10 teams, so 30-7 against bottom 20 teams. That strikes me as a team that’s good enough to beat up on the teams below them but not good enough to beat great teams with regularity.
Denver’s not alone in that regard, The Memphis Grizzlies are 6-10 against top 10 point differential teams. The New York Knicks are 5-9. The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-12. Other good teams have also struggled in those situations. The kicker though…those are good teams and not great teams. Does that make Denver good and not great as well? Probably.
It’s time for the Nuggets to wake up. Things were going well against a subpar schedule. Now, things get tough. To a man in that locker room, the Nuggets players also know how easy their schedule has been lately and how they will be challenged over these next six to eight weeks. The question is how they will respond.
Will they lock in and become an elite team? They’re not there yet. Or will they simply be “good, not great” for the rest of the season?
Time will tell.