Tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Golden State Warriors will kick off the 2025-26 NBA season.
The excitement is palpable around the NBA. Will the Thunder defend their championship belt? Will teams like the Denver Nuggets oust the Thunder from their spot at the top? Which players are set to thrive in the league this season?
Let’s go over some bold predictions for the entire NBA:
The Orlando Magic go from zero to three All-Stars
It seems like the Orlando Magic are perpetually under-discussed. For a while, there was a good reason why.
Now though, after the trade for Desmond Bane and development of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, I’m not so sure.
With the shifting landscape of the Eastern Conference, the Magic suddenly have a serious opportunity to establish themselves as a contender this year. Banchero has already made an All-Star team, and Wagner was close last year if not due to injury.
Now, add Bane’s spacing, perimeter creation, and overall mentality to a hungry Magic team, and it’s a recipe for All-Star potential from a young team ready to take a leap.
The Pacers and Celtics remain good without injured stars
Tyrese Haliburton certainly won’t play this season. Jayson Tatum is more likely to play but could also miss the entire year if the Celtics are out of it.
I don’t think either team goes away though. The strength of the Pacers is in their depth, of which they still have plenty at the guard and forward spots. The answers at center are rough without Myles Turner, but they still have Pascal Siakam to anchor things.
The Celtics’ strength is in their outside shooting, and they have plenty of that. Jaylen Brown will be their creator, while Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Anfernee Simons will be their spacers. That’s enough offense to get around their lacking defensive personnel on most nights. Opposing teams will be caught up trying to match the shootout.
Let’s say both teams stay in the Top 8, and one will avoid the Play-In entirely.
One of the Hawks or Pistons drops to the Play-In
Two of the sexier picks in the East this year are the Hawks (who made some impressive offseason moves) and the Pistons (young team that gets back Jaden Ivey from injury). Common sense says they’re both going to be really good. Common sense doesn’t often happen in the Eastern Conference.
The Hawks still have yet to pay Trae Young a big contract and are expected to force him to earn one for next offseason. They’re also relying on healthy seasons from Jalen Johnson (who missed half of last year), Kristaps Porzingis (often injured), and what is still a relatively shallow rotation around their main group.
The Pistons rely heavily on Cade Cunningham and are expecting the reintegration of Ivey to go well too. They also have plenty of one-way contributors (Ivey, Duncan Robinson on offense, Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland, Isaiah Stewart on defense). Finding the right mix two seasons in a row is difficult. Maybe JB Bickerstaff can do it, but it’s not set in stone.
One of these teams will probably underperform. I’m not sure which.
Giannis plays fewer than 60 games in final season in Milwaukee
Giannis Antetokounmpo has always played at least 60 games. He’s had injuries before, but these absences will be less about injury and more about a “cursed” season in Milwaukee. After the injury to Damian Lillard, the Bucks were forced to pivot in a pretty underwhelming way. Kevin Porter Jr. is the starting point guard. Kyle Kuzma has been a disappointing addition. Myles Turner will help them, but he’s replacing Brook Lopez. The team didn’t “upgrade” at center.
So, it’s almost all on Giannis, and that’s going to lead to a very overwhelming year for a player who has already hinted at leaving before. The Bucks will have enough of a formula around him to stay attached when he’s out there, but I expect this situation to go south at some point in the middle of the year. Whether it’s an injury absence for Giannis or a bad losing streak or both, I don’t think the Bucks crack 45 wins, showing just how far away they are from contention. Giannis sees that by midseason and begins to go from “unstoppable tank” to “health conscious tank” fairly quickly.
Victor Wembanyama wins DPOY in official breakout season
This isn’t exactly bold, but it’s what’s very clearly expected. Wemby looks like a monster physically and appears ready to take that step from star to true superstar.
The Spurs around him around a juggernaut, especially on the defensive end. They will need to improve to allow Wemby the opportunity to establish a clear “impact” case on that end of the floor.
But let’s be real: Wemby led the NBA in blocks last year by a significant margin despite playing just 46 games. He wasn’t eligible for the award, but he would’ve won if he played the requisite games.
I think Wemby helps the Spurs become an above average defense by himself, and the numbers he puts up will simply be unfathomable. He’s going to be knocking on the door for “Best player in the NBA” within two years, to no fault of Nikola Jokic.
The Lakers drop to 7th in West despite improving their team
Luka Doncic being on the Lakers is still ridiculous, but the team around him and LeBron James still isn’t optimized for consistency.
Around the Lakers are teams that have improved defensively, added key pieces to their frontcourts, and are simply more stable than what I think the Lakers are right now. They have some solid contributors around their stars like Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Marcus Smart, and Jake LaRavia. I don’t know how it fits together every night, especially with Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes expected to play the majority of center minutes.
James’ injury that will keep him out until November is also cause for concern. Can the Lakers get enough minutes out of him at this late stage in his career? How hard can he play defensively? Offensively, things will be good, but probably not great with various overlapping skill sets and not enough knockdown outside shooters.
The other six teams at the top of the West will all compete for 50+ wins. While I think the Lakers will be near that, I don’t expect them to have enough consistency from night to night to win more than about 48 games.
An Amen Thompson breakout carries the Rockets
The Fred VanVleet season-ending injury was a sad bit of offseason news before the Rockets season even began. That was a major loss.
Yesterday, Rockets head coach Ime Udoka announced the Rockets would start Thompson next to Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun…and Steven Adams…in the season opener vs the Oklahoma City Thunder.
First of all: sick. I can’t wait to watch.
Second of all: that’s a lot of pressure on Thompson. He’s the only guard in that lineup, and last year he started at power forward for a significant portion of the season.
It’s an INSANE ask for Thompson to be as ready as the Rockets need him to be. Then again, nothing beats trial by fire. Thompson will improve, hell or high water, enough for the Rockets to trust him when the playoffs begin. There will be bumps along the way, but he’s going to be really good. There’s quite literally no other option for Houston otherwise.
SGA wins MVP again
This will bother Nuggets fans, but SGA is really good. His team wins a ton of games, and a lot of it is because of SGA’s skills and impact on the court. While the supporting cast is fantastic in some areas, it can be lacking in scoring creation. That’s why SGA scores 30+ more often than anyone in the NBA right now.
That won’t change this year, and it will lead to another MVP for the Canadien guard. Nikola Jokic will once again challenge him, but the burden on Jokic this year is far lower. Last season, Jokic put up better numbers than SGA, but it was the gap in wins that separated the cases for the two best players in the NBA.
This season, the wins gap won’t be quite as large, but Jokic’s individual numbers will also go down. The presence of Jonas Valanciunas as a stable backup, as well as more consistent scoring around him, will cause Jokic’s points per game to drop. His other numbers will still be tremendous, but not quite enough to take back the MVP from SGA.
The Nuggets win the title
It’s going to be a tough year for Denver. There probably won’t be many moments of drama, but some opportunities for malaise will creep in at inopportune times. They will lose some games they shouldn’t.
But this seems to be the year the Nuggets are best positioned to dominate from the get-go. There’s some chemistry that must be developed early, and the rotations will have to find combinations that work well consistently.
If the Nuggets can do those things, they will thrive in the regular season and earn a Top 3 seed in the West. I actually think they will be the second seed behind the Thunder.
So, let’s call my shot now:
- The Nuggets will beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round in five games
- The Nuggets will beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round in seven games
- The Nuggets will beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the conference finals in six games
- The Nuggets will beat the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals in six games, winning the NBA Title at Madison Square Garden
They have to talent to do it. They will need the health, the coaching stability, and the right breaks to make it all happen along the way. Those playoff rounds will be an absolute slog.
But if they do it, this team will be remembered as one of the best in NBA history, led by one of the best players in NBA history.
I can’t wait to see it.
