Just who exactly are these Denver Nuggets?
No Luka or LeBron? Take that L…at the buzzer…on the way out.
Joker, Jamal and all? Worked by the Wizards.
No Joker, Jamal or Christian Braun? Big win in the Bay (or perhaps Luck of the Irish).
No Joker nor Jamal? In an L.A. haze.
No, no, no… no clue.
To put it mildly, the Denver Nuggets make no sense whatsoever.
There’s no denying that the biggest, most obvious difference between the current Denver Nuggets, and the Nuggets who won it all in 2023 and were the favorites to win the West deep into the 2023-24, is defense.
The champs won a title because of their smothering defense. And in the season that followed, they were arguably better, at least leading up to the playoffs. The numbers help to tell the story.
Collectively, these Nuggets, who have amassed the fewest wins (44) through 70 games since the 2021-22 season (42), rank 20th in team defensive rating. Last season, with a defensive rating of 8th, Michael Malone’s team had already won 49 games through 70. And in their title run, they ranked 15th while winning 47.
If defense is the obvious flaw in the current iteration of the Nuggets, then “Why?” Is the logical question to follow. The answer may or may not be a mystery. The solution, with just 12 games remaining in the season, has yet to surface.
Most commonly, the finger points toward personnel; specifically, the absence of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, an excellent parameter defender who split to Orlando for more money (more than Calvin Booth was willing to pay, anyway). But is the combination of Caldwell-Pope and Christian Braun significantly better than the pairing of Russell Westbrook, who’s playing far better than anyone truly expected, and Braun, who’s easily having his best year as a pro?
Stats never tell the whole story, but for the sake of comparison, they can sometimes help.
This season, Braun and Westbrook post individual defensive ratings of 114.7 and 116.5 respectively. Last year, Braun – taking less of the brunt while coming off the bench – had a rating of 109.3; Caldwell-Pope’s rating was 111.0. The difference is noticeable, if not telling.
In their title campaign, Caldwell-Pope, Braun and Bruce Brown came in at 111.5, 111.3 and 113.0. While the numbers are still notably better, perhaps depth – the fact Denver had three elite defensive guards – paints a clearer picture. In fact, Braun averaged just 15. 5 minutes per game as a rookie; comparatively, he’s logging 33.4 this season as the primary, mostly-starting two-guard.
Booking it down to just guards could very well explain the bulk of Denver’s defensive woes. But it’s not just that. Aaron Gordon, another elite defensive player, has a defensive rating 2 points worse than last season. Jokic’s rating is 5 points worse. Jamal Murray, who’s not known for being a defensive stopper, is 3.4 points off his ‘23-24 pace. Michael Porter Junior is worse by 2.7.
If rating points represent actual points, the starters’ combined drop totals nearly 17 points. On the actual scoreboard, Denver is giving up 7.9 points per game more this season than last.
It’s easy to say that the absence of Caldwell-Pope hurts, but does that fully explain why practically every Nugget is playing worse defense this season? After all, the eye-test suggests that the drop off from Caldwell-Pope and Braun to Braun and Westbrook isn’t that significant. While defense is a team effort, Caldwell-Pope’s departure surely can’t be blamed for the ratings slide across starting lineup.
Michael Malone was brought to Denver to be a defensive coach. While winning the franchise’s first-ever championship, he proved he was. This season, he quite get his team to play a lick of defense. Has Malone’s message become stale? Has the disconnect between Booth and Malone finally revealed itself on the court? Last season, when Malone refused to play the developmental game, using primarily “his” guys, Denver played great defense but ran out of steam in the postseason. This season, the coach often is left no other choice but to play Booth’s young project players.
Are the Nuggets tired? Inexperienced? Unmotivated? Unwilling to be coached?
If anything holds true, it’s that they’re inconsistent. Nobody knows which version of the Nuggets will show up on any given night.
They are, perhaps, most consistent at playing little to no defense. If Nikola Jokic’s assertion – at this point, the Nuggets are who they are – is prophetic, the postseason will be short lived in Denver.
What happens from there could get interesting.
