Nuggets vs. Spurs Betting Preview (August 5, 2020)

It’s another early afternoon start for the Nuggets, so let’s waste no time and get into this Nuggets vs. Spurs betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.

Following an upset win over the Thunder on Monday, the Nuggets enter today’s matchup with the Spurs as a solid favorite at most Colorado online sports betting shops.

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Behind 37 points from Michael Porter Jr. and a triple-double from Nikola Jokic, Denver overcame a rash of injuries to upend Oklahoma City on Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, the Spurs will try to “shake” off a devastating late loss to the Sixers on a Monday night that was spurred by a late three-pointer from Philly’s Shake Milton.

Denver knocked off San Antonio back in February, 127-120, and will need a short-handed squad to stave off the desperate Spurs, who, currently, are sitting on the outside of the Western Conference playoffs.

Can the Nuggets take advantage of a rare soft spot on the schedule, or will the Spurs rebound and spring the upset?

Let’s take a closer look in our Nuggets-Spurs betting preview.

Nuggets vs. Spurs Odds

Here’s the line for the Nuggets and Spurs at DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado:

• Spread: Nuggets -4.5, Thunder +4.5
• Moneyline: Nuggets -190, Spurs +160
• Total:  227.5

Analysis: The Nuggets are on a bit of a see-saw right now. After opening as a short favorite against the Heat and going on to lose by 20 points, Denver rebounded to pull an overtime upset against Oklahoma City in an overtime victory. Today, Denver is once again favored, this time against the 29-37 Spurs.

Frankly, if Denver entered this game at full-strength, they would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of an eight-point favorite as they were back in February. However, Will Barton and Gary Harris are out again, while Jamal Murray is questionable (and also unlikely to play). Even in the event Murray suits up, both his effectiveness and his minutes are likely to be limited.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are without LaMarcus Aldridge, who is averaging 19.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game this season.

Bets We Like With a Nuggets Cover

Nuggets to win by 6-10 points (+420 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

We will get to a straight pick against the spread in a bit, but we like to take a look at some alternative markets in order to maximize value. In this case, the banged-up Nuggets giving five points suggests that this is a “Denver line” given the Spurs spirited play thus far in the bubble.

For that reason, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Nuggets run away with this one. San Antonio is nowhere near the team it has been in recent seasons, but it takes care of the basketball and relies on solid mid-range shooting.

The key for San Antonio is keeping Jakob Poeltl out of foul trouble. That’s been difficult recently, and the Spurs’ lack of front court depth could once again be exposed this afternoon by Nikola Jokic, who’s fresh off his 13th triple-double of the season. Again, this is more of a lottery ticket play in attempt to maximize a stronger payout, but one that makes sense.

Note: FanDuel Sportsbook continues to give bettors third quarter moneyline bet insurance. If you grab the moneyline on a side and that team blows its lead following the end of the third quarter, FanDuel gives back up to $50.

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Nuggets -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado)

As for this game, we’re going to try our hand at a momentum play. I like the Nuggets today, and the suspicion from this perspective is that they’re going to ride the momentum of their overtime win on Monday into this one, while the Spurs are going to carry with them a hangover from a tough loss the other night. For this reason, we’re going to shorten the game up and play the Nuggets in the first half.

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome (Denver -4.5 at FOX Bet)

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The Spurs are 14-8 ATS this season as an underdog of at least 4.5 points, which is strong, and they’re also 4-2 ATS following a loss of three points or less. However, San Antonio is also only 9-12 ATS against Western Conference opponents that have won at least 50% of its games.

Denver is also an impressive 9-4 ATS when favored between five and eight points this season, so this is a point-spread range in which the Nuggets have excelled this season.

The Spurs have played some inspired basketball since coming to the bubble, but this line screams a Nuggets cover.

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Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction

Nuggets vs. Spurs Pick: This is a bad matchup for San Antonio. I don’t believe the Spurs front court can slow down Jokic, and I don’t believe they can take advantage of the Nuggets’ suspect perimeter defense. I’m going with the Nuggets to cover the 4.5 points.

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