Pat Surtain is now the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year.

That’s a surprising late-season turnaround because T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers has been the favorite all year long.

With one week left to play, the Broncos superstar jumped Watt, but each players have crucial last regular season games on the docket.

Pat Surtain is favorite for Defensive Player of the Year; will he win?

T.J. Watt is considered the best defensive player in the NFL and has been for a few years.

But oddsmakers, and possibly the Associated Press voters, have flipped the script and are realizing Surtain has a case for the award.

Currently, Surtain is the odds-on favorite at -200, with Watt right behind him at +170. Myles Garrett, who won the award last year, is in a distant third at +2000 odds.

For Watt, who won Defensive Player of the Year in 2021, and was second in 2020 and 2023, it’s been another great season.

He currently leads the NFL in forced fumbles with 6, and has recovered 2 of them. He also has 11.5 sacks, which is tied for fourth-most. 11.5 sacks is good, but it’s nowhere near his 19.0 last year, or the 22.5 when he won DPOY.

Still, Watt has been a game-wrecker this year.

But what about Pat Surtain as Defensive Player of the Year?

Surtain leads the league in interception return yards (132) which included his incredible 100-yard pick-6 against the Raiders.

Besides the fact that he went the length of the field, jogging most of the way, it was huge in that game.

Denver was down 10-3 at the time. A touchdown for the Raiders would’ve given them a two-score lead. And the Broncos offense hadn’t done much to that point in the contest.

Surtain’s massive pick-6 turned the momentum in Denver’s direction and the Broncos cruised to a needed victory.

The Broncos star also has 11 passes defended, a forced fumble and a recovery, and has one of the best passer ratings allowed (55.6) in the NFL.

How do analytics, other factors help clear up the race for the best defensive player?

According to Pro Football Focus, Surtain is the highest-graded cornerback in the NFL this year. He has a total grade of 85.8 and a coverage grade of 87.7. He’s also missed zero tackles all season long as arguably the best tackling cornerback in the league.

Watt has a 92.0 overall grade per PFF, which is third-best among edge rushers. He’s also No. 1 in run stopping grade (91.6) and eighth in pass-rushing grade (88.4).

Surtain commands so much respect, he’s been targeted a career-low 59 times this year and allowed only 35 passes to be completed against him.

Watt is also 13th in Pass Block Win Rate, winning 16% of his pass-rushing snaps.

Finally, Surtain leads all CBs in DVOA:

Each of the stars have won individual awards this year already, too.

Pat Surtain was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Month of November. That’s an award Watt hasn’t won this year. Of note, Watt won Defensive Player of the Week in Week 8, while Surtain won in Week 5.

On top of that, Surtain was named to the Pro Bowl yesterday, and named the Demaryius Thomas team MVP by the Denver media. Similarly, Watt was also named to the Pro Bowl and named Steelers MVP for a fifth time.

Clearly, that sets up for a big week for each player.

Watt and the Steelers play the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday, with a 6 p.m. MT kickoff. The Bengals must win to stay alive, and Watt can help end their hopes by getting after Joe Burrow all day.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are in a “win and you’re in” game against the Chiefs backups. On one hand, that will make his accomplishments likely less large. But, if he can pick off Carson Wentz, that will help the case for Pat Surtain as Defensive Player of the Year.

The Broncos (9-7) and Chiefs (15-1) kickoff at 2:25 p.m. MT in Denver on Sunday, Jan. 5. Surtain and his defensive-led team have a chance to make the playoffs and win 10 games in a season for the first time in nine years.