As the Broncos are left reeling from a 23-3 defeat to the Chiefs in Arrowhead, they face the perfect opponent to get back on track against.
With an offense led by undrafted free agent David Blough and a defense that has consistently been one of the league’s worst this season, the Broncos, and Drew Lock, should be able to build up some positive momentum before the offseason.
Drew Lock vs. Detroit defense
Drew Lock had the worst game of his young career on the road against the Chiefs, completing fewer than half of his 40 attempts for just 200 yards and an interception.
However, he has the perfect opportunity to rebound against the Lions’ defense, which should be the worst he’s been matched up against so far.
According to Pro Football Focus, Detroit’s defense has the third-worst pass rush, the fifth-worst coverage, and is the fourth-worst defense overall.
This is in large part due to a secondary that only has one cornerback — fifth-round rookie, Amani Oruwariye — with a grade above PFF’s baseline of 60.0, meaning every other cornerback has a worse grade than someone who hasn’t stepped on the field.
Their most productive pass-rusher, Trey Flowers, has a pass-rushing productivity rating of just 8.3, which ranks 30th in the league among players that have rushed the passer at least 100 times this season. Only nine teams in the league have a less productive No. 1 pass rusher.
Football Outsiders isn’t a fan of Detroit’s disastrous defense either. They rank the Lions’ defensive unit 29th in pass defense and 26th overall with a DVOA of 9.5%, being narrowly edged out by the Texans’ DVOA of 9.6% for the title of worst defense Drew Lock has seen.
However, in WEI DVOA, which weights recent results and performances more than those from earlier in the season to more accurately represent how a team is playing right this moment, the Lions rank 29th, ahead of only the Jaguars, Raiders and Dolphins with a DVOA of 14.2%. That’s twice as bad as the league’s 24th ranked defense (Green Bay, 7.8%).
Lock should be able to return to the level of play he showed against the Texans, when lined up against Detroit on Sunday.
Blough should be blown-out
As the Lions’ defense serves as cannon fodder for Denver’s offensive attack, the Detriot offense should prove to be an equally unimpressive foe.
With both starting quarterback Matthew Stafford and backup quarterback Jeff Driskel on injured reserve, the Lions will have to turn to undrafted rookie quarterback David Blough out of Purdue for the fourth game in a row.
Over his first three games, Blough has earned a grade of 61.8, while the Detroit offense has posted just 44 points and 890 yards for an average of just 14.67 points and 296.67 yards per game. Of those 44 points and 890 yards, 17 points and 236 yards came in Blough’s first half of play.
That means, in the five halves of football since Blough’s electric start, the Lions have averaged 5.4 points and 130 yards a half, a bar even the Broncos’ anemic offense should hurdle with ease.
Football Outsiders views the Lions offense, even with Blough, more favorably than they do their defense though. The Lions offense ranks 19th in total DVOA, but 20th in WEI DVOA, implying the drop off to Blough hasn’t been as steep as one would think.
Whether or not Blough plays well though, Sunday is perfectly set up for a Broncos blowout victory.
