The Denver Broncos’ loss to the Minnesota Vikings was heart-wrenching to say the least, but there were several positives to take out of that game. Namely the fact they nearly beat one of the league’s best teams in one of the league’s most hostile environments.

Now they’ll have to try and do it again against the Buffalo Bills. That being said, the Broncos shouldn’t be underdogs in Buffalo, as the Bills aren’t who you think they are.

Throw out the records

Forget about the teams’ respective records when the Broncos (3-7) face the Bills (7-3) on Sunday.

Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric measures how good a team is by factoring in the opponent, garbage time and several other factors to get more accurate results than old-fashioned stats. It is the king of stats when it comes to determining how good a team is overall, and it says the Bills are a much worse team than the Broncos.

The Broncos rank 18th in weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to recent play. That puts them in a class with the Jaguars, Chargers and Browns, while the Bills rank 25th, which puts them in a class with the dregs of the league, like the Falcons, Buccaneers and Jets.

Also, in the Broncos’ last seven games they’re 3-4 with three of those losses coming down to the very last play against playoff contenders. In total, four of Denver’s losses have come down to the final play and five were determined by one possession, with all but one coming against potential playoff teams (Week 2 vs. the Bears).

In contrast, the Bills have played just two games this season against teams with a winning record, and those games they were outscored 47-23 and went 0-2. In the Bills’ seven wins this season their opponents have been dreadful, posting a combined record so far this season of 15-55 for an average record of 2-8.

The two opponents the Broncos and Bills have in common are the Titans and the Browns. While the Broncos outscored those teams 40-19 and went 2-0, the Bills outscored those teams 30-26 and went 1-1.

The Bills defense isn’t what you think they are

When Drew Lock initially returned to practice, many members of Broncos Country wanted him to return in Week 13 against the Chargers because they believed that would present an easier matchup for the rookie quarterback, but the Bills defense isn’t the dominant force they opened the season as.

That doesn’t mean the Bills’ defense is bad, it’s just merely pedestrian. In both total defensive DVOA and weighted defensive DVOA, they rank 14th, behind not only the Broncos but teams like the Colts, Chiefs and Jets.

While their pass defense does rank ninth in DVOA, their run defense is an atrocious 27th, meaning Phillip Lindsay should run wild on Sunday.

Also, their defense has produced these poor numbers against bad opponents as previously stated. Football Outsiders ranks their defense’s strength of schedule as the easiest in the league, meaning no one has had to face a worse grouping of offenses than Buffalo.