The debate surrounding Drew Lock and the quarterback position feels likely to last all off-season, and at the very least should last through the NFL Draft.
Some want the Broncos to cut. their losses with Lock and take another swing at finding the long-term solution, while others believe patience in regard to Lock’s development is the best avenue.
It appears Pro Football Focus and their analysts fall on the latter side of the argument. That shouldn’t be surprising, as they predicted Lock to be the league’s worst starting quarterback before the 2020 season, and weren’t far off.
In a recent article from Pro Football Focus’ Anthony Treash predicting what all 16 quarterback-needy teams will do this off-season, he has the Broncos looking to the draft to find a long-term replacement for Drew Lock in North Dakota State product Trey Lance.
Of the draft’s four first-round worthy quarterbacks and Mac Jones, Lance is certainly the most raw of the bunch, but he also might have the highest ceiling of any of the prospects not named Trevor Lawrence.
He might be the biggest boom-or-bust pick of the draft, which could scare some, but look around at which young quarterbacks are running the league. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert were all viewed as high-risk, high-reward selections, and looking back each has arguably been the best quarterback in their draft class (or in Jackson and Allen’s case, neck-and-neck for that title).
“John Elway isn’t calling the shots anymore, but Lance is a quarterback prospect that the Broncos legend would be all over here with the ninth overall pick,” Treash wrote. “He’s 6-foot-4 and 227 pounds with a massive arm. Plus, he’s an elite athlete who brings a lot to the table in the ground game. At the same time, though, his accuracy is not all that great; he’s basically the opposite of Mac Jones.”
If the phrase “opposite of Mac Jones” makes you salivate, you’re not alone.
“Lance played in just one game this year due to COVID-19 causing the FCS to postpone its season to the spring. In that showcase game, we saw exactly the same traits from 2019: Incredible mobility but glaring inaccuracy. He carried the ball 15 times (13 designed, two scrambles) and put up six explosive runs of 10-plus yards, forcing nine broken tackles along the way. However, just 28.6% of Lance’s passes were deemed accurate in the outing.”
The biggest concern with the Broncos landing Lance would be the fit. Lance is very raw and will have to make a massive adjustment to the speed of the NFL game, so ideally you would sit him behind a trusted veteran as he develops. It would be very weird to utilize Lock as that veteran, as drafting Lance means Lock’s days in orange and blue are numbered. He also doesn’t fit Shurmur’s scheme at all really.
In order for the Broncos to pull a Lance selection off in a way that made sense, they would have to sign a player like Tyrod Taylor to serve as the veteran mentor, move Drew Lock in a trade, and either find a new offensive play-caller or have Shurmur dramatically change his scheme.
The Lance pick might be a clunky one, but there are few other players in this draft — if any — that would offer the same upside.