The Denver Nuggets are moving closer to one of the most anticipated seasons in franchise history.

Let’s continue our three-week series in advance of Media Day on September 29th. With 14 players on the roster and a new mix of players to discuss, it’s important to remember who the Nuggets have, who they don’t have, and what to expect heading into October.

Up next, a check-in on Jonas Valanciunas.

There’s no question that Jonas Valanciunas is expected to be the most productive backup center of the Nikola Jokic era.

In the last 10 seasons, the Nuggets have utilized Joffrey Lauvergne, Jusuf Nurkic (but not really), Mason Plumlee, Isaiah Hartenstein, JaVale McGee, JaMychal Green, DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan, and Zeke Nnaji as the primary backup behind Jokic. It’s been a long and winding road, and Valanciunas clearly has a tall task ahead of him.

Here are the minutes per game numbers for each backup center since Jokic’s rookie season:

  • 2015-16: Joffrey Lauvergne – 17.6 MPG (1,041 minutes)
  • 2016-17: Jusuf Nurkic and Mason Plumlee – 17.9 and 23.4 MPG (1,439 combined minutes)
  • 2017-18: Mason Plumlee – 19.4 MPG (1,439 minutes)
  • 2018-19: Mason Plumlee – 21.1 MPG (1,731 minutes)
  • 2019-20: Mason Plumlee – 17.3 MPG (1,057 minutes)
  • 2020-21: JaMychal Green, Isaiah Hartenstein, and JaVale McGee – 19.3, 9.1, and 13.5 MPG (1,567 combined minutes, Nuggets played JaMychal Green and Paul Millsap together consistently)
  • 2021-22: JaMychal Green and DeMarcus Cousins – 16.2 and 13.9 MPG (1,516 combined minutes)
  • 2022-23: Zeke Nnaji and DeAndre Jordan – 13.7 MPG and 15.0 MPG (1,314 combined minutes)
  • 2023-24: Zeke Nnaji and DeAndre Jordan – 9.9 and 11.0 MPG (972 combined minutes)
  • 2024-25: DeAndre Jordan and Dario Saric – 12.3 and 13.1 MPG (901 combined minutes)

On average, the primary backup centers in Denver have played roughly 1,300 combined minutes every season behind Nikola Jokic, which makes sense. Jokic averages 2,365 minutes per season in his career, and you add those two numbers together to get 3,665 total center minutes, divide by 82 games to get about 44.7 minutes per game. The other 3.3 minutes per game would be small ball, an emergency third center, a two-way contract, etc.

So, if the math is correct, the Nuggets have a solid role for Jonas Valanciunas to fill this year, about 1,300 minutes in a season which works out to about 15.9 minutes per game across 82 games. That’s more than the numbers the Nuggets were getting from Nnaji, Jordan, and Saric across the last three seasons.

The real key is consistency though. Can the Nuggets count upon Valanciunas to be there for those minutes, to be consistently productive across that length of time? It’s the age old question of Nuggets backup centers. In the last five seasons, Jokic’s MVP caliber years, the Nuggets have a Net Rating without Jokic on the floor of +0.5 in 2020-21, -10.6 in 2021-22, -11.6 in 2022-23, -11.1 in 2023-24, and -9.8 in 2024-25, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Can the Nuggets turn around a double-digit negative net rating with Valanciunas out there? It should be possible. In 1,040 possessions with Valanciunas on the floor without Domantas Sabonis last year, the Sacramento Kings had a +1.2 point differential buoyed by elite offense and elite rebounding. The Kings did have high quality creators on the floor next to Valanciunas like Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Malik Monk pretty consistently. Valanciunas only played 15 total possessions in Sacramento without any of those perimeter scorers.

So, if the Nuggets want to make Valanciunas viable, at least viable enough to rest Jokic the way they would want to rest him, they will likely have to stagger Jamal Murray, Cam Johnson, or both. Fans cannot expect Valanciunas lineups to save Jokic minutes when the primary creators in those lineups are Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Julian Strawther. Denver’s rotation must feature Murray and Johnson (or perhaps Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon) staggering with the second unit in some way.

It doesn’t mean the bench players can’t play at all. The Nuggets just need to be diligent about shortening the rotations of everyone involved to have actual rotations, not just small periods of time when the starters aren’t playing.

This article pivoted away from Valanciunas pretty quickly, but there’s a reason for that. The “idea” of Valanciunas is extremely tantalizing, but it only becomes viable if the Nuggets actually take advantage of that skill set. That means playing bench players with Jokic more and starters with Valanciunas more. It will reduce Jokic’s Net Rating, but it’s possible it helps the entire team feel like a connected group as well as means to reduce the burden on the best player in the world.

If Valanciunas can give the Nuggets 1,300+ minutes (he played 1,524 minutes last season while starting just 21 games) then it’s a massive win. Denver needs stability so badly from this spot in the rotation, and if Valanciunas helps Denver navigate the regular season well, it’s one step closer to Denver returning to championship form. That process starts on Game 1 of 82. Not Game 15. Not Game 40. It starts Game 1.

We will see if he’s up to the task.