Win and they’re in.
It’s that simple.
Then again, it’s been that simple for the past two weeks. Yet, the Denver Broncos have failed to heed the call.
To be fair, it’s never quite that simple in the NFL. There are 31 other teams that have a voice in the matter, and the two that just played the Broncos have been competing for the same thing – one of seven spots in the AFC side of the playoff bracket. The Chargers, who bested Denver on Thursday Night Football in Week 16, have clinched theirs. And the Bengals, who beat the Broncos on Saturday, accomplished two things. First, they kept their own playoff hopes alive.
And second, they made things a whole lot more interesting in Denver, as the Broncos head into a season finale against Kansas City with an all-too-familiar modus operandi: Win and they’re in.
Kansas City – in theory – should be beatable. Having already clinched the top seed in the AFC, there’s not much to gain for them. There’s a good probability the Broncos won’t even see some of the Chiefs key starters. And let’s not forget, Denver should have – could have, would have – beat the Chiefs at full strength at Arrowhead back in Week 10, if not for a blocked, game-winning, chip-shot field goal as time expired.
As it turns out, the first matchup against Kansas City is symbolic of Denver’s entire season, which includes a long list of missed opportunities. In sum, the Broncos are certainly good enough to make the playoffs but haven’t quite yet. They’ve put themselves in position to do big things, but too many times haven’t been able to seal the deal.
From the outset of the season, a 9-8 finish would have been a result that anyone would have gladly taken. Denver was – according to oddsmakers – a 5.5-win team. By that measure, they’ve already exceeded expectations.
But once inside the minutia of an NFL season, 9-8 would likely feel disappointing. If the script is flipped on Denver’s long list of missed opportunities, the Broncos should have 10 or 11 wins, making the upcoming game against the Chiefs a mere formality. A quick recap proves frustrating, but also tells a more concerning story.
While there may not be a single moment that could have changed the outcome of a 13-6 loss to the Russell Wilson-led Steelers in the home opener, a 6-point effort had Broncos fans wondering who was the real problem in the 2023 season.
Another 7-point home loss to the Chargers in Week 6 had the coach blaming himself. “All of this starts with me,” Payton said following the game – a fair statement considering that his offense was stagnant for three quarters, yet produced 228 yards, two touchdowns and a field goal in the fourth.
The heartbreaking loss to Kansas City was arguably more impressive than most wins in the schedule. But still, in a playoff chase that will come down to a single win, that one stands out.
It’s the last two losses that really stand out, though, as Denver had plenty of chances to win both.
Against the Chargers, Denver was in full control until the final minute of the first half. Some head-scratching play calling from Payton led to a shift in momentum that resulted in a bizarre free kick to end the half, and things spiraled from there. In the second half, the offense produced two measly field goals, while the defense collapsed, giving up 21. The Broncos completely abandoned the running game – a weapon that worked better against the Chargers than it had all year – which became a major reason for the 34-27 loss. After the game, both the quarterback and coach alluded to a short week of practice leading into Thursday Night Football being at least part of the problem. Ironically, it was the coach who took the Broncos out of the run game and opted into Thursday Night Football unnecessarily.
Part of the rationale for the latter, however, was that a long work of preparation would put the Broncos in a great position to beat the Bengals. With a “play three to win one” outlook, perhaps beating the Bengals seemed most likely. Why not ensure that would happen with extra practice and prep? That’s how it played out, except Denver didn’t get the job done.
Against a defense that ranked 29th in points allowed, and 27th in yards allowed, Payton’s offense generated 24 points and went just 4-of-11 on third down conversions. The Bengals offense, which ranked 7th in yards gained and 6th in points scored, was kept largely in check, as Denver’s defense held Joe Burrow and Co. to 24 points in regulation – 4.3 points fewer than Cincy’s 28.3 average. Still, until the bitter end, the Broncos were recipients of major post-Christmas gifts – major clock mismanagement at the end of regulation and a Cade York missed field goal from 33 yards out to win in overtime.
Having only to tie in order to stamp their ticket to the postseason, the Broncos failed to gain a game-winning first down or run enough clock to prevent the Bengals from scoring. Once again, end-of-half/game/overtime mismanagement doomed Denver.
In 2023, it felt as if Payton coached the Broncos into playoff contention, then coached them right out of it with a devasting home loss to the Patriots on Christmas Eve.
This season, the sentiment is eerily similar, as Payton coached his team and rookie quarterback into a “can’t-miss” situation – a 9-5 record that almost assured Denver’s inclusion in the postseason – only to squander two (at a minimum) chances to put a bow on the entire package.
It all sets up as a “prove it” game for Sean Payton against Kansas City.
If the Broncos win, Payton’s first two seasons in Denver can be summarized as a coach who changed the culture by discovering the right direction and boldly surging toward it – all the way to an unexpected, ahead of schedule trip to the playoffs. The details in the middle will be long forgotten; nobody will care about unnecessary timeouts, play calls or failed challenges.
But if they lose and miss out on the postseason – again – the blame will fall on the head coach. In a season marked by missed opportunities, Sean Payton will – fairly – take the brunt of the fall.
He’s always the smartest guy in the room. But on Sunday against the Chiefs, he’d better prove it.
