Blame the refs.
Blame the kicker.
Blame the coach.
Any or all share a small – very small – part in the Denver Broncos 29-28 loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The Broncos drop to 1-1. The new-look Colts are now 2-0. It’s a long, long way from the postseason, but there’s reason for concern at 5,280 feet above sea level.
The Broncos can’t stop the run.
Nor will they commit to it.
That’s why the Broncos lost on Sunday.
It’s also why the postseason will elude them if things don’t change.
Against the Colts, on what should have been the final play of the game, the officials tossed a ticky-tack flag for “leverage,” turning a 60-yard missed field goal attempt into a retry of the 45-yard variety. That one went in, putting the final nail in the Broncos’ coffin. Right before all of that, Broncos coach Sean Payton mismanaged his timeouts. Right before that, kicker Will Lutz bonked a 42-yard, game-sealing field goal off the upright.
One possession prior to that, Payton chose to throw the ball on 3rd-and-3 from the Indy 28-yard line; that didn’t turn out so well, as Bo Nix tossed his third interception on the season, taking three, potentially game-winning points, off the board. There was still 11:25 left to play, but still, as it turns out, those points could have rewritten the end of this sad story.
Why not run? On the day, J.K. Dobbins galloped at a clip of 5.4 yards per carry. When Nix took off, his crazy legs carried him for 6.7. Nix was pretty darn good on Sunday, but the risk-reward – up 28-23 and on the Indy 28 – didn’t pencil.
Whether it’s in the first quarter or the fourth, Payton just can’t quite commit to the run. Against the Colts, the Broncos backs had 21 carries. In a clunky win against the Titans, they had 22. It’s not as if the Broncos can’t run. So far this season (taking Nix out of the equation), the Broncos are running at a clip of 5.37 yards per carry. It’s not record-setting, but certainly not bad. One doesn’t need to be an NFL genius to run the math on that; two carries at that rate equals a first down.
Oddly, not running wasn’t Sunday’s biggest flaw.
Not stopping the run was.
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor simply killed the Broncos, rushing at a clip of 6.6 yards per carry. On the opposite sideline, the Colts did what Payton won’t – they committed to running the ball. Taylor alone finished the day with 25 carries and 165 rushing yards.
The Broncos defense is supposed to be one of the best in the NFL. Sunday, they looked mediocre at best. It sure would help to have injured linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
Vance Joseph has built a great defense…
…against the pass.
He’s got a secondary that features a great safety in Talanoa Hufanga, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, a quietly excellent CB2 in Riley Moss, another cornerback who was the Broncos first-round pick and an expensive pass rushing unit – Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper and Zach Allen. Joseph is a master at dialing up a blitz in the most critical of passing downs.
Alex Singleton, a tackling machine of a linebacker, can only do so much.
It’s often said that the NFL is a “copycat” league. For most of the 21st century thus far, that’s meant teams have morphed into pass-heavy, high-flying offenses. Joseph has, by and large, figured out how to combat the trend.
But about the time everyone is content with zigging, it feels like the best teams are starting to zag.
The Eagles, last year’s Super Bowl champ, run, run, run and run some more. The Ravens have the best running quarterback-running back duo in the league. The Lions are anchored by a powerful ground game.
Against the Bills last season in the playoffs, the Broncos weren’t beat by the gunslinging cannon of NFL MVP Josh Allen. No, they simply couldn’t stop Bills running back James Cook, who turned 23 carries into 120 rushing yards. Allen and RB2 Ty Johnson added 90 rushing yards of their own. Regardless of how good the rookie Nix was, it felt like he barely had the ball. Maybe that’s because the Broncos only ran it 17 times… on the road, in the playoffs.
Good luck with that.
It’s not even the top tier of the entire league; look no further than the AFC West. The Raiders drafted Ashton Jeanty. The Chargers grabbed Omarion Hampton. As a matter of fact, the 0-2 Chiefs have averaged fewer rushing attempts than anyone else – including Denver – in the division. On the defensive side of the ball, Pete Carroll’s Raiders only surrendered 60 rushing yards in their Week 1 win over the Patriots. The Chargers, who beat the Chiefs, allowed less than 100.
It’s early, but Denver still has given up more rushing yards per game (119) than anyone else in the division.
Can’t stop, won’t stop?
Won’t run. Can’t stop the run.
It’s not a good recipe. If the Broncos ground game doesn’t get cooking, and the defense continues to get run over, Denver’s run of making the playoffs will be short lived.
On Sunday, the Broncos got run over. As the NFL slowly begins to shift back to more balance on offense, the Broncos had better adjust.
Quickly.
