On Friday, barring the two sides coming to an accord beforehand, the Colorado Avalanche and Mikhail Grigorenko are scheduled to have their arbitration hearing. During this meeting, both sides will present their arguments over what the 22-year-old Russian forward is worth to a neutral arbitrator. Grigorenko’s representatives will likely come in high, with the Avs brass coming in low; the two sides destined to meet somewhere in the middle.
Wondering what that number could look like? So were we. As such, we went searching for recently-signed (in the last two offseasons) contracts by players comparable in age, position, size and performance.
Grigorenko is 22. In 74 games last season, he had six goals, 27 points and a plus-three rating. We narrowed the field down to five deals given to similar players to determine Grigorenko’s market value.
Here they are (from highest cap hit to lowest):
1. Casey Cizikas
Team: New York Islanders Age: 25 2015-2016 stats: G: 8 A: 21 P: 29 +/-: 4
First season of deal: 2016-2017 Term: 4 years
Average annual value: $3.35 million
2. Nail Yakupov
Team: Edmonton Oilers Age: 22 2014-2015 stats: G: 14 A: 19 P: 33 +/-: -35
First season of deal: 2015-2016 Term: 2 years
Average annual value: $2.5 million
3. Joakim Nordstrom
Team: Carolina Hurricanes Age: 24 2015-2016 stats: G: 10 A: 14 P: 24 +/-: 1
First season of deal: 2016-2017 Term: 2 years
Average annual value: $1.275 million
4. Andrej Nestrasil
Team: Carolina Hurricanes Age: 25 2014-2015 stats: G: 7 A: 13 P: 20 +/-: -1
First season of deal: 2015-2016 Term: 2 years
Average annual value: $912,500
5. Brent Connolly
Team: Washington Capitals Age: 24 2015-2016 stats: G: 9 A: 16 P: 25 +/-: -1
First season of deal: 2016-2017 Term: 1 year
Average annual value: $850,000
That’s a range of $850,000-3,350,000.
Now, just to try and get a more accurate value, let’s assume that one team overpaid and one got a bargain. As such, the contracts for Cizikas and Connolly have been eliminated. The average of the remaining three deals is $1.5625 per season. Now that’s a very affordable number. Heck, the average of all five deals ($1.7775 million) should leave just enough money for Tyson Barrie.
If the arbitrator’s award is anything over $2 million, the Avalanche might have a problem. If he is on the roster next season, look for Grigorenko’s cap hit to be in the $1.5-1.75 million range.
