The Rams vs. Seahawks was a great Thursday Night game, but neither NFC contenders are clutch like the Denver Broncos.
Both of the NFC’s top teams looked beatable under the lights last night.
If there’s somehow a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII or the “Walmart Bowl” in February, maybe the Broncos don’t have that much to be afraid of.
Neither Rams nor Seahawks were clutch like the Denver Broncos
Yes, LA and Seattle gave us a great football game last night, worthy of much popcorn eating and excitement.
The contest was a back-and-forth battle, with five lead changes, three turnovers all by the Seahawks, and the craziest 2-point conversion you’ve ever seen.
In the second half, the Rams were able to open up a 16-point lead thanks to poor play by Sam Darnold. One of his interceptions on the night was returned to the Seattle 1, where Blake Corum ran it in for the score. Following a second poor drive by the Seahawks and a punt, Matt Stafford found Puka Nakua in the end zone to lead 30-14.
But the Rams—who were mostly dominant all night—allowed Seattle to get back into the game and come all the way back to tie it up 30-30. A Rams 3-and-out led to a punt that was taken 58 yards to the house by Rasheed Shaheed. A second straight 3-and-out continued to give Seattle life; Darnold hit tight end AJ Barner for a 26-yard touchdown, and that insane 2-point conversion tied it up.
There was still 6:23 left on the clock when LA took back over, though. In fact, both teams had three separate chances each to win the game, and neither could.
Those last six drives went:
- LAR: 3-and-out
- SEA: 3-and-out
- LAR: Missed FG
- SEA: 3-and-out
- LAR: Punt
- SEA: End of half
That’s anti-clutch. That’s not the game of the year type stuff. Or even Super Bowl worthy type play.
Yes, once they got into overtime, both teams scored. First, it was the Rams and Nacua going 41 yards to the house in a massive game following his absolute disaster of an appearance on an online stream this week. Then, it was Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the Seahawks score. Seattle went for the win, a 2-point pass from Darnold to Eric Saubert for the victory.
Broncos, Rams, Seahawks the favorites to make Super Bowl LX
According to multiple metrics, the Denver Broncos are the AFC favorite to make Super Bowl LX, while the Rams are just ahead of the Seahawks on the NFC side.
First up, ESPN FPI gives Denver the best chances of any team (26.1%) to make the Super Bowl. It had been the Rams (25.6%) and then the Seahawks (20.7%) before last night’s game. It seem even the 10,000 simulations believe the Rams are beatable after last night.
Secondly, the betting odds have Denver favored (+270) with LA (+280) and Seattle (+290) up next.
This graph shows the overall betting market and what teams it thinks will win the Super Bowl:
How likely your favorite team is to win the Super Bowl (unless that team is not good)Honestly at these odds, the Ravens are kind of interesting?
Currently, the Seahawks are 12-3 and are the No.1 seed in the NFC. The Broncos are 12-2, and the AFC’s No. 1 seed. And the Rams fell to No. 5, but they’re still arguably the best team in football at 11-4.
Bettors, simulations, and the expert analysists are all agreeing these are the three best teams, with the Buffalo Bills (15.4% to make Super Bowl LX) as the second-best AFC team.
But both the Seahawks and Rams showed big-time deficiencies last night.
Let’s point out, too, that both the Seahawks (2nd in points allowed) and Rams (7th) have great defenses. That’s important to keep in mind, and they each led to some mistakes by both teams.
First off, LA turned the ball over on downs, then settled for two straight field goals early, and Seattle took the lead at 7-6. After the Rams took the lead back, Seattle was driving and Cooper Kupp fumbled the ball in the red zone.
In the second half, Darnold had two interceptions, one which led directly to a touchdown. Many wonder if he’s a good enough quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and that won’t be shaken until he wins at least one playoff game this year. Last season was the best of his career with Minnesota, but he was sacked 9 times and threw a pick in the playoff loss to none other than the Rams.
Then, the Rams had their own issues late. They had three straight 3-and-outs in the fourth quarter, missed a field goal which would’ve won the game, and then had yet another chance to win it and was forced to punt.
Neither the Rams nor the Seahawks are clutch like the Denver Broncos, if they face each other in the Super Bowl.
Denver’s gone 9-2 in one-score games. Seattle is 6-3, Buffalo is 4-2, and LA is 4-4 in such games.
The Broncos also own a +54 4th quarter point differential, which likely leads the NFL (it’s hard to find this stat anywhere). Plus, they won 11 straight games in which they were trailing and have an NFL-leading 5 4th-quarter comebacks.
And, if Denver does end up facing LA or Seattle in the Super Bowl—we’re still a long ways from that—the Broncos great defense will be able to find and exploit flaws with either the Rams or Seahawks.
