Sean Payton’s play-calling was first aggressive, then it morphed into a cautious offensive attack against the Buffalo Bills.

Denver ended up losing 31-7, giving up 31 unanswered points, due to the head coach’s conservative approach.

The Bills were simply the better team, yes. But the Broncos seemed to have a great game plan from the beginning, only to go away from it when it mattered most.

Denver started aggressive on offense, and it worked

The Denver Broncos came out looking like a team with nothing to lose.

As the No. 7 seed, Denver knew it was a huge hill to climb to beat No. 2 Buffalo at home. They’re a great team, with a likely NFL MVP as their quarterback.

But that’s why Sean Payton’s play-calling was perfect to start the game.

On the fifth play from scrimmage, Bo Nix uncorked a beautiful bomb to Troy Franklin for six. Just like that, the Broncos took a shot and landed it, taking an early 7-0 lead.

The Bills seemed flummoxed, as Allen uncharacteristically threw a ball high and out of the end zone on third down in Denver’s red zone. So Denver led 7-3 after each team had a possession.

After the Broncos answered with a 3-and-out, the Bills went on their longest drive of the day. They marched 81 yards in 7:35 to lead 10-7.

That’s when things got wacky. The Broncos moved the ball a bit, but were stopped at their own 43 yard line. Sean Payton dialed up a fake punt for the first time all year. Riley Dixon threw the ball for a first down into Buffalo territory.

It was that kind of aggressive play-calling which Denver needed to somehow pull off a win against the Bills. But all that momentum died four plays later when the Broncos punted it back to Buffalo. Payton could have elected to kick a 56-yard field goal, but Will Lutz’s long was 55 on the year. Or, the head coach could have gone for it on 4th and 7 from Buffalo’s 39 yard line.

Ultimately, the defense held the Bills on the ensuing drive. And Denver’s offense finally came alive when Sean Payton’s playcalling turned to the pass.

Bo Nix led a 60-yard drive in less than two minutes to set Lutz up with a game-tying field goal attempt. Unfortunately, it was doinked off the upright and missed. Denver trailed 10-7 at halftime.

Still, that more assertive offense worked in terms of moving the ball. And then Denver fell flat.

Sean Payton’s play-calling was inconsistent and too cautious late

Down three points to an elite team on the road in the playoffs isn’t a terrible position to be in.

Denver’s defense–which kept them in games all year long–bent but didn’t break to start the second half. D.J. Jones sacked Josh Allen at the Broncos nine yard line and the Bills settled for another field goal.

Despite being down only one score, 13-7, Payton’s play-calling got ultraconservative.

The Broncos went 3-and-out because they relied on a run, run, pass sequence of plays. The Bills answered with a backbreaking touchdown pass from Allen to Ty Johnson in the back of the end zone on 4th and 1.

Again, Payton dialed up run, run, pass; another 3-and-out for Denver.

The Bills scored another touchdown and put the game away at 28-7, even though almost the entire fourth quarter remained.

Finally, Payton went back to leaning on the pass game and Denver moved the ball. But the Broncos came up short on the drive, turning the ball over on downs in Buffalo’s red zone.

The way the second half was handled by the head coach and playcaller was incredibly frustrating to see. Not only because it clearly didn’t work–Denver didn’t get a single first down in the third quarter–but also because Payton was aggressive early.

Him having Nix take a shot on the first drive, and it hitting, should have been a sign to take more shots. Then, he called the fake punt.

Look, desperate times call for desperate measures, which is what a fake punt is. It worked, but then he punted the ball anyway a few plays later. Instead, Payton should have either kicked the long field goal or gone for it from Buffalo’s 39 yard line in the second quarter.

A successful fake punt stole the momentum, but Payton handed it back to the Bills when he rolled over a few plays later.

To his credit, Payton said he wishes he went for it on that next fourth down after the fake punt. “Yes, the down-and-distance on the next sequence though analytically was not in favor of doing it,” he said after the loss.

 

To be fair, the 4th down decision bot agreed it wasn’t a “go for it” situation.

Still, he saw the more pass-heavy attack work in the 2-minute drill, even if Lutz missed the kick.

But Payton’s playcalling inexplicably went run-heavy as he watched the Bills run all over Denver’s defense.

A good team needs to take risks to beat a great team

There was hope Denver had an edge with Payton as head coach compared to Sean McDermott of the Bills. Payton has more experience, more playoff wins, and a Super Bowl win, too.

But it was like Payton forgot what his plan was going into the game and decided to go gently into the good night.

Why did he answer Buffalo’s scoring drives with unimaginative runs? Why did he take the ball out of Nix’s hands? Was he afraid of the rookie turning the ball over?

“There’s been a lot of times from my experience where you have to stick to the run,” Payton explained after the loss. “We run it, we run it and here we are 3rd and 7. We just didn’t execute well enough and it’s frustrating.”

Answering one of Buffalo’s scores with a run, run, pass drive and 3-and-out is one thing. Watching Allen break the defense’s heart with that incredible touchdown pass and still sticking to the run, down two touchdowns, is ridiculous from a play-calling standpoint.

The Broncos were the worse team. They knew they had to take chances, and did early. So, why go away from that strategy late?

Hopefully next year, if the Broncos make the playoffs again, Payton’s play-calling will be more aggressive. And he’ll stop blaming the players for his choices.

Because it’s win or go home in the playoffs. Which is where Denver is now, on the couch.