Strike 1: The similarities are striking. And not in a good way.
Just a year ago around this time, the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche had overcome a glut of injuries and clawed their way to the top of the NHL’s Central Division during the final days of the regular season. It wasn’t a smooth ride to that division title repeat, but it left the Avs in a nice position entering the postseason and gave them a decent shot at defending their title.
We all know what happened next. A shocking first round playoff loss to the Seattle Kraken.
Fast forward one year. The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets came from behind with a post All-Star break flourish and ended up deadlocked in the final regular season standings atop the Western Conference standings. They were able to overcome nagging injuries to their star point guard, Jamal Murray, along with the aches and pains of MVP Nikola Jokic and standout forward Aaron Gordon. However, with a chance to secure the top seed in the west, Denver blew a 23-point lead and lost to the lowly San Antonio Spurs in their second to last regular season tilt, dropping them to the No. 2 seed in the upcoming playoffs.
That was an astonishing and devastating, season-changing loss. And it will very possibly cost the Nuggets a chance to repeat.
Stop before you lock in any parade plans.
We’ve been in this scenario before. Remember, the Avs main problem a season ago was a lack of depth. Coming off that long postseason run and resulting short offseason, and having lost star second line center Nazim Kadri to free agency the previous summer, Colorado didn’t have enough scoring punch when their first liners weren’t on the ice. The stars had to play more minutes, and in the end, just didn’t have enough left in the tank to defend that title.
This years’ Nuggets are in almost the exact same position. Coming off their shortened offseason, Denver lost key standout sixth-man Bruce Brown to free agency over the summer. That left them to depend on a number of inexperienced reserves, and they’ve lacked badly needed consistency and scoring punch off the bench. The starters have had to play too many minutes – Jokic has played 200+ more minutes than he did a season ago – and the wear and tear and painful lack of depth has already proven costly.
These Nuggets remain very talented of course, and collectively they worked their backsides off to finish with 57 wins, tying the franchise record set by George Karl’s 2013 team. That Nuggets team lost in the first round of the playoffs.
No one is going to go there and predict these Nuggets will repeat that first-round ouster. They should be able to get past either the Lakers or the Pelicans (those two meet in a play-in game) having been rested and holding home court advantage. But after that, being the second seed means the Nuggets will, in all likelihood, have to take down both the teams they tangled with for the Western Conference top spot all season – the third-seeded Timberwolves (season series tied 2-2) and the top-seeded OKC Thunder (same 57 regular season wins, but a 3-1 season series advantage over the Nuggets, including two wins at Ball Arena) to just reach the NBA Finals.
That task will likely prove to be too much for a team forced to ride their MVP and its stellar starting unit way too hard all season. If this proves to be the case, that inexplicable loss to the Spurs will haunt Nuggets Nation all summer, especially while the TV is showing a title parade happening in someplace like Boston.
