Strike 2: Colorado Rockies first baseman Michael Toglia is modern day Major League Baseball. He’s a stat-nerd’s dream.

That’s because we’re still living in the MLB age of “swing as hard as you can. Swing for the fence. Swing up and lift the ball. Don’t shorten your swing with two strikes. Strikeouts aren’t that bad. An out is an out, after all. They’re all created equal.”

At least in their minds.

As we reach the 2024 All-Star break, Toglia is all of this:

  • Leads the Rockies in home runs with 16 in just 173 at-bats. For reference, Brenton Doyle has 15 HR’s in 333 at-bats.
  • His three-home run game in New York on Sunday was a Rockies first for a switch hitter.
  • He’s got 34 RBI, which is just 11 behind team leader Ryan McMahon who has 360 at bats.
  • He’s far and away the team’s best defensive first baseman, and can also play right field.
  • A .763 OPS which is nearly identical to standout shortstop Ezequiel Tovar.

Also true:

  • Toglia carries a .191 batting average into the break.
  • He has more strikeouts (60) than games played (51) this season.
  • He has as many singles (15) as he does base-on-balls. Including the home runs, he’s got 19 extra-base hits.
  • He’s yet to crack the “Mendoza Line” – which means a batting average of over .200 – for his career.

Confusing? Not to the “stat goblins,” many of whom still believe that batting average is overrated and that strikeouts are okay. For them, Toglia is blossoming into another Dave Kingman, or Joey Gallo, or several of the other big sluggers of past years for whom “swing your hardest in case you make contact” are words to live by.

Can Toglia become more than that?

The Rockies first-round draft pick back in 2019 may have finally gotten a solid hold on a big league roster spot after riding the Albuquerque shuttle for much of the past two and a half seasons. Is he finally blossoming into the player the Rockies believed they were drafting? Can the power stroke and the excellent glove make up for the strikeouts and terrible batting average?

The Rockies have obviously liked what they’ve seen recently. Toglia has been on a roll for a couple of weeks now. If he continues to make contact – and that remains the big if – he has a chance to hit over .200 for the first time in his big league career, plus, putting more balls in play will undoubtedly lead to more RBI’s. Perhaps he can become more than just a home run hitter?

Toglia’s play made Elehuris Montero – another slugging first baseman acquired from St. Louis in the ill-fated Nolan Arenado trade – expendable. Montero was cut and then re-signed with Albuquerque. It’s unlikely he has a future with the organization.

The question that lingers now is what happens when (if) Kris Bryant and his arthritic back comes off the injured list (again.) Will the Rockies’ $182 million dollar man be inserted into the lineup at Toglia’s expense? Would the Rockies stall their rebuild, err, “reconstruction” plan by benching the guy who has hit and played defense far better than the guy with the phat contract just because they’re paying one guy stupid money?

The Rockies mission this year continues to be “See what you have so that you can see what you still need.” By season’s end they may finally know what they have in Toglia, if they keep playing him.