Strike 3: There’s a portion of Broncos Country that’s concerned that quarterback Bo Nix could fall victim to the dreaded “sophomore slump” this season. But don’t count on that happening. Both he and his team would have to fall far below expectations for that label to stick.
Nix and the Broncos had a very good 2024. First playoff appearance in a decade and all that. Yes, they set a new bar, but in the big picture, it’s not an especially high one. It’s a bar that’s well within reach this season, and even without Nix having an All-Pro caliber year, they could easily clear it.
And if the Broncos exceed last season in any way, no one will say that Nix had any kind of slump.
As a rookie, Nix stats were solid. Not spectacular, but solid. He started every game, passing for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns. He completed just over 66% of his throws, and had a quarterback rating of 56.8. Again – very solid, not spectacular. Room for growth, and room for remission.
Fellow rookie Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders had a slightly better season. He passed for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns. Daniels completed 69% of his passes, and finished with a QB rating of 70.6.
Daniels was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year as the Commanders won 12 games and advanced deep into the postseason. That’s a higher bar, right?
New England’s Drake Maye was another rookie QB who had, by all accounts, a solid first season. Maye passed for 2,276 yards, threw 15 TD’s, completed 66% of his passes and had a QBR of 58.6. The Pats didn’t make the playoffs, but no one in New England was complaining about the QB play.
However they did complain in Chicago, where top draft pick Caleb Williams put up 3,541 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Williams finished with a competition percentage of 62.7 and a QBR of 46.7. Not terrible. The problem was the Bears were awful, and the QB took a lot of the blame. If Williams regresses, stats-wise, even a little this season, but the Bears – whose bar remains pretty low in the tough NFC North – turn things around and make a run at the postseason, will they call it a slump? Probably not.
And what if this season Daniels numbers fall to what Maye put up as a rookie? 1,300 fewer yards, 10 fewer TD’s and a lower completion percentage and the Commanders win “only” 10 games. Then you know that they’ll be calling that a sophomore slump, even if it’s really not.
Everything is relative. It all depends on where the bar has been set for the player and for his team.
If Nix goes out this season and produces virtually the same stats he had last season and Denver goes 10-7 again, would that constitute a slump, or just a lack of progression?
Two seasons ago, Houston Texans standout rookie C. J. Stroud went off, throwing for more than 4,100 yards with 23 touchdowns (just five interceptions), completed 64% of his passes while compiling a QBR of 57.5. He was the toast of the league.
Then as a sophomore last season, Stroud “fell” to 3,727 passing yards, “just” 20 TD’s, had almost the exact same completion percentage and a QBR of 49.8. And the Texans won a playoff game. Stroud’s overall stats were better than Maye had, yet somehow, they pointed at Stroud and labeled it a slump.
No, he just had a slightly less productive season stats-wise than the year before, but he was still outstanding. That’s not a slump.
So if Nix has stats that are comparable, but even down a bit from last year, and the Broncos can run the ball better than they did a season ago, get a couple more wins (beat the Chargers at least once, for example) and maybe win a playoff game, Nix will have avoided the “sophomore slump” even though he had slightly less production as in his rookie season. If Bo has another solid but not spectacular season, but the Broncos fail to meet expectations, the QB will probably get hit with the label.
That’s possible, but it’s not likely. If, as expected, the Broncos improve around Nix, and the second year signal caller simply runs it back, there will be no mention of any sort of slump.
