Strike 3: When any Major League Baseball team only wins three times in a stretch of its first 20 games, it’s pretty likely that a change of Managers is going to take place.

Well, not “any” MLB team.

Even with expectations coming into the season at an all-time low, the Colorado Rockies have done the impossible – exceed those bottom dwelling expectations. Now Black, the Rockies skipper since 2017 when he took two consecutive teams to the postseason – is getting heat for the team’s awful start.

The main culprit through the first 17 games was actually a bottom dwelling offense that had scored the fewest runs in the National League and was striking out more than 10 times per contest. So the Rockies front office did something they don’t like to do: They fired someone, that being hitting coach Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens. The replacement was former Rockies Manager Clint Hurdle, who was the team’s skipper during the famous “Rocktober” run in 2007.

Colorado scored 11 runs in Hurdle’s first game at the team’s new hitting coach, and still lost.

The move has led to speculation that Hurdle is the new/old manager-in-waiting, ready to take over when Black is ousted in the not too distant future.

But that speculation is flawed.

Both Hurdle and Black are at the age where they can comfortably receive their monthly Social Security checks. While the Rockies organization is notoriously insular, they’re still not likely to go in that direction. Possible, but not likely. When the time comes and Black does depart (most likely when he decides to retire) the most likely replacement is 40-year-old Rockies third base coach Warren Schaeffer.

For what it’s worth, Black is most certainly not what ails the Rockies. He’s the club’s winningest all time manager, having taken those two Rockies teams to the postseason. He’s got a pair of World Series rings, one as a player and one as a pitching coach. He was the National League’s Manager of the Year in 2010.

Bud’s forgotten more about the game of baseball than his critics will ever know.

Black is on his second consecutive one-year contract through the end of this season, so this could be his last go round. He could have very easily walked away a few years back when he saw the “rebuilding” writing on the wall. It became clear as soon as the Rockies traded Nolan Arenado and lost Trevor Story and Jon Gray to free agency that his playoff team was for all intents and purposes “tanking” (although that word has never been uttered at 20th and Blake) and would not be a contender for the remainder of Black’s managerial tenure.

The fact that he’s stuck it out, and remains committed to seeing the franchise begin to trend in the right direction before hanging it up, is testimony to why he should be able to leave on his terms, not his critics. It would be simple for the front office to point the finger at the manager and fire him, thus steering blame away from their own player development issues. But the organization knows and understands that the team’s on-field struggles are not Black’s fault, and replacing him with Hurdle or Schaeffer at this point will do nothing to alter the trajectory of the 2025 season.

The best case (and proper) scenario is simple: The very young Rockies show signs of improvement as the season goes on, even perhaps avoiding a third straight 100-loss campaign with a strong second half. The future contains hope. Bud Black eases into retirement, content in knowing that he’s leaving Schaeffer at a good jumping off point.

Worst case would be the Rockies front office panicking due to the lagging attendance and negative attention and firing Black before the season ends, thus setting things back and leaving either Hurdle or Schaeffer to try to bail water from the deck of a sinking ship.

No one involved deserves for that to happen.