Strike 3: Before Drew Brees was drafted by the then San Diego Chargers back in April of 2001, the scouting report on him from Mel Kiper Jr. read something like this: “In the NFL Brees will be looking to overcome his lack of ideal size and top arm strength. He looks like an early second round pick.”

That perceived “lack of arm strength” did drop Brees just barely out of the first round (he was the first pick of the second round. And keep in mind that Sean Payton had nothing to do with the drafting of Brees.)

Fast forward to April 2024. Denver Broncos head coach Payton, who coached Brees for 15 seasons in New Orleans after the QB was signed as a free agent from 2006 up until 2020 – winning Super Bowl XLIV along the way – eagerly drafted Oregon’s Bo Nix with the 12th pick in the first round of the NFL Draft, creating instant comparisons to the future Hall of Famer Brees and generating excitement in Broncos Country, including this from Kiper:

“Nix 6-foot-2, Drew Brees 6-foot-0.5. Both around 215 lbs. Accurate passers. Don’t have the big arm – Brees didn’t have the big arm, that’s why he was the first pick in the second round, right? Nix doesn’t have the big arm. Cerebral.”

Another scouting report on Brees read like this: “A major plus with Brees (was) the fact that he (had) all the necessary intangibles you look for. A tremendous competitor, always maintains his poise and has the resiliency to forget about the bad plays and move on. He’s also a winner who responds to challenges in close games that could go either way.”

Most people who’ve watched him play would agree that Nix has shown at least some of these positive traits as well.

Still, it hasn’t started out great in the pros. Two unimpressive games (both losses) into a career is hardly a fair assessment of what kind of NFL future a young quarterback might end up having. Long time Bronco fans remember the struggles of John Elway when he was a rookie back in 1983.

But it’s not too soon to talk about the physical attributes that contribute to the ultimate success of an NFL signal caller in today’s NFL.

Even though Nix does have a lot going for him, the one thing he doesn’t have is that big time NFL throwing arm. That’s something that NFL scouts all agreed on. And it’s probably what’s going to keep Nix from ever becoming an elite NFL quarterback. One scouting report stated simply, “Nix projects as a quality backup at the next level who has enough ability to be an effective quarterback in standard down-and-distance situations.”

Another said Nix “lacks elite traits.”

Harsh? Perhaps.

Certainly many QB’s have succeeded without an Elway-esque cannon. There have been a large number of guys who threw the football with more velocity than Tom Brady or Joe Montana but didn’t do a thing in the pros. Yet as the NFL continues to evolve, and the defenders continue to get bigger, stronger and faster, being able to put some serious juice on your passes – while still being able to be pinpoint accurate – becomes even more imperative. Moving forward it seems like arm strength is going to be even more and more critical to ultimate success, which is winning the Super Bowl.

The days of teams being just “solid” with their QB play, and still having enough to win the big game are probably over.

This is not to say that the Broncos should give up on Nix right away. That would be foolish. Nix will continue to grow and improve, and he’s going to have some outstanding games in the not too distant future. It’s certainly possible that he could become a very very good NFL QB. But will he ever become an elite NFL QB? The only two QBs to win Super Bowls for Denver were elite. Hall of Famers.

It’s not likely Nix becomes elite. At this moment, he looks a lot like another fleet footed college QB Denver drafted back in 1983: Gary Kubiak.

Broncos Country may have to come to grips with the reality that the next QB to take Denver to a Super Bowl isn’t around yet.