Strike 3: A hundred different things go into the draft evaluation of every single player who ends up getting a chance to play in the National Football League. Even the first round is a crapshoot, and every team can look back at the mistakes they made and lament the ones that got away.

Denver Broncos general manager George Paton knows this better than most. During his time in Denver, he’s had plenty of both.

During a frustrating season in 2021, it was clear that Paton’s Broncos needed upgrades across the board. They were a team that should have been looking to draft the best players available in April of 2022 so they could build for the future. Unfortunately, looking for a quick fix under new head coach Nathanial Hackett, Paton and the new Broncos ownership opted for the splashy trade route. In March of 2022, just over a month before the NFL Draft, they made the blockbuster deal that brought quarterback Russell Wilson to Denver and sent tight end Noah Fant, defender Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock to Seattle.

It also cost Denver first and second round draft picks in both 2022 and 2023.

Ouch.

Fast forward, and Wilson’s albatross of a salary will finally be off Denver’s books after this season, but it’s those lost draft picks that are still hurting the most today.

This week, Broncos Country will get a close up look at what could have been.

They’ll notice that the best tight end performing at Dove Valley this week won’t be the Broncos’ Evan Engram. It’s a guy Paton could have drafted if not for the Wilson trade.

Looking back, during his early years in Denver, Paton was a regular in the press box at both Colorado and Colorado State home football games. True to his scouting background, in late November of 2021 the GM drove up to Fort Collins to see downtrodden CSU host Nevada. He was present presumably to scout Wolfpack quarterback Carson Strong. From his seat in the press box at Canvas Stadium, Paton watched Strong and Co. – coached by Jay Norvell in his final game as the head coach of the Wolfpack – tear up Colorado State 52-10 in what soon became head coach Steve Addazio’s final game at head coach of the Rams.

Strong – now the quarterbacks coach under Norvell at CSU – threw four touchdown passes in little more than a half of game action. One was a 54-yard scoring strike to future Ram/current Seattle Seahawk Tory Horton. Strong completed 17 of 22 passes for 288 yards before donning his baseball cap. He certainly looked the part that night.

Paton even watched intently as Strong walked somewhat gingerly off the field at halftime, nursing a knee injury that would eventually play a huge part in him not being drafted at all after what looked – on paper at least – to be a standout junior season. Clearly Paton saw something he – and other NFL teams – didn’t like. It proved to be a very good decision. The Philadelphia Eagles signed Strong as an undrafted free agent, then released him at the end of August. The hobbled signal caller got a couple more shots, including the with the USFL before he turned to coaching.

Denver, not picking until the middle of Round 2 in 2022 after losing those first and early second-round picks in the Wilson trade, grabbed linebacker Nik Bonitto with the 64th overall pick. Later they drafted UCLA tight end Greg Dulcich, who Denver released last season after he couldn’t stay healthy.

Paton nailed the Bonitto pick to be sure (Dulcich not so much.) But how much better could the Broncos have been if the GM had been able to make picks in the early first and second rounds that year?

There was something else Paton saw on his trip up I-25 that November evening. He watched CSU tight end Trey McBride – who would go on to win the John Mackey Award that season as the best tight end in the country – take a fake punt 69 yards for the Rams only touchdown of the game. McBride also caught six passes for 113 yards that night – one of his six 100+ receiving yard games that season. McBride’s senior season was one for the record books. He set single season and career CSU tight end receiving records and that season, and was the school’s first unanimous All-American.

McBride was drafted in the second round of that 2022 NFL Draft by the Arizona Cardinals, six picks before Paton and Denver were able to make their first selection and tabbed Bonitto. In other words, had Denver had their own second round pick that season, they could have had the future Pro Bowl tight end from Fort Morgan and Bonitto.

Back in his home state this week with the visiting Cardinals, McBride is now considered one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Last season he had 111 catches for 1,146 yards, production that Denver’s prized free agent acquisition, Engram, isn’t likely to match this year. This week, McBride is bound to see significant action during the joint practice sessions and on Saturday night at Empower Field. You can watch and wish.

The Wilson trade with Seattle has been dissected and called one of the worst trades in league history. And it’s the trade that keeps on hurting.