More often than not, the stats tend to back up what we’re seeing on the football field. Whether we’re talking about the advanced analytics or the basic statistics, they’re only a product of the on-field play, as are our visual impressions.
But in some cases, the stats and our initial reactions don’t match up; sometimes, whether it’s thanks to a fancy algorithm or an advanced eye, the stats tell a different story than the one we watched on the television screen.
Yesterday was one of those cases.
The Broncos victory over the San Diego Chargers seemed to unfold like a magical storybook; Peyton Manning made his long-awaited return, the offense finally came together and the Broncos secured their fifth straight AFC West title. It was perfect. But it didn’t exactly happen the way you may have expected.
Thanks to Pro Football Focus, here are three ways in which the advanced analytics don’t back up our immediate impressions.
The offensive line actually played great:
I can understand where this could have come across on Sunday, but the Broncos quarterbacks, whether that be Manning or Osweiler, were still under pressure on over 45 percent of their drop backs, giving up two sacks; that’s not exactly great.
But according to Pro Football Focus, aside from Michael Schofield, who had the lowest grade (-1.2) on the offense, the Broncos top four offensive performers were their offensive lineman.
Not only did Matt Paradis have his best game of the season (5.1), but he continued a three-game stretch of positive grades from PFF; before Week 15, he had only had two grades over 1.0.
And after missing the majority of Denver’s last three games, Evan Mathis recorded his second best performance of the year (4.5), securing him a top-five grade in PFF’s overall guard rankings for the fourth time in the last five years (he was sixth last season). It should be noted that almost all of that came from his run-block grade (29.1), which was highest in the league, as he actually finished the season with a negative pass-block grade (-3.0; 39th in the NFL).
Likewise, both Max Garcia (3.3) and Louis Vasquez (2.7) had their best grades of the season.
Part of it has to do with the fact that the Chargers defense is just plain bad, but you’d have to hope it’s a sign of some improvement, too. Not to mention, Kubiak finally put Schofield out of his misery.
