The Broncos’ ball security problem wasn’t new in 2017, it was amplified

The Denver Broncos lost the turnover battle again in Week 16. The 27-11 loss at Washington can be more or less pinned on a pair of turnovers. It was more of the same in a 2017 season that has been defined by giving the ball away, giving up points as a result and failing to do either on the other side of the ball.

In 2017, the Broncos have allowed 135 points off 31 giveaways. They have scored just 45 on 15 takeaways. (Chart at bottom of page.) It was 14 and zero against Washington, losing the turnover battle three to two.

The first of Brock Osweiler‘s two giveaways in the final 5:00 of the second quarter (a fumble) resulted in points — a touchdown that gave Washington a 10-3 lead at the time. Denver looked like a different team (see, deflated and defeated) after Osweiler’s second (an interception). Back-to-back drives ending in turnovers were amplified by a bad decision. As the clock ticked down at the end of the half, rookie Isaiah McKenzie tried to turn the ball up field instead of getting out of bounds and giving his kicker an opportunity to put three points on the board.

The Denver defense, which entered the game ranked first in total yards, couldn’t hold the levee for an ineffective offense. After Broncos safety Will Parks secured an interception in the end zone to keep points off the board to start the second half, Osweiler and the offense went three-and-out. Following a forced fumble by Von Miller in the fourth quarter, Devontae Booker turned around and gave the ball right back to Washington on the next drive with a fumble of his own. Kirk Cousins turned that into a quick seven points just 20 seconds later.

That’s been the problem all year for the Broncos. Yes, they rank second-to-last in the league in total giveaways, but their turnover problem is nothing new. Astute fans will recall that the Super Bowl 50 team ranked 29th in the league in giveaways that season. The problem in 2017 is that these turnovers have been amplified. They’ve happened at bad times, at bad places on the field, and the defense this year hasn’t responded with stops or takeaways of their own.

Parks and Miller did their part to even the turnover battle on Sunday, but per usual the offense couldn’t capitalize.

Here’s a rundown of all the turnovers in Washington and what the ensuing drive produced…

DEN Fumble (at own 34-yard line) = WAS Touchdown
DEN Interception (at WAS 28-yard line) = WAS Punt
WAS Interception (in DEN end zone) = DEN Punt
WAS Fumble (at DEN 46-yard line) = DEN Fumble
DEN Fumble (at WAS 48-yard line) = WAS Touchdown

Those bookending touchdowns tell you all you need to know about why the Broncos lost the game at FedEx Field. Washington produced 14 points off Denver turnovers. Denver produced zero.

That has more or less been the case for Denver this season. The Broncos (as stated previously) are minus-90 in points off turnover differential with one game still to play (against the team with the fewest giveaways in the NFL, mind you).

Much of that lies in the fact that those turnovers are happening on their own side of the field. Through Week 16, Denver ranked dead last in the league in terms of defensive starting field position. Of the Broncos’ 31 giveaways so far, 21 (67.7 percent) have resulted in points for the opposition.

Compare that to just eight of 15 (53.3 percent) takeaway drives resulting in points for the Broncos in 2017.

The fact that the Broncos are turnover prone should not be a huge surprise, however. Beginning in 2010, when the longest-tenured Broncos offensive player, Demaryius Thomas, joined the roster, Denver has ranked 16th or lower in giveaways in all but one of the last eight seasons. They’ve ranked 26th or lower in half of them.

Only in 2014, when Denver tied for sixth in the NFL with 20 giveaways, were they among the top 10 teams at protecting the ball.

*Through Week 16

Compare that to the New England Patriots, who over the last eight seasons have ranked outside the top three just once — when they finished eighth. Since 2010, the Patriots have claimed the fewest giveaways in the league four times. They ranked third once, second once and currently rank second behind Kansas City.

Osweiler said when he inherited the starting job earlier this season (before losing it, then regaining it again), “Ball security is job security.”

It’s no surprise, then, that the Broncos are in the spot they’re in — with not one of their three quarterbacks a lock to return in 2018 and their head coach in a similarly precarious situation.

Broncos fans were able to look past a minus-four turnover margin and a minus-22 points off turnovers scoring differential in 2015 because Peyton Manning was under center and Gary Kubiak was at the helm. And because Denver flipped the script in the postseason. Denver was plus-three and plus-19 en route to their Super Bowl 50 victory.

However, it’s impossible to look past a minus-16 turnover differential and minus-90 scoring differential off turnovers this year.

Whatever changes the Broncos make in 2018, finding players and coaches who can better protect the ball has to be tops on the priority list.

Broncos giveaways / takeaways and resulting points

*Indicates direct scoring play

*Indicates direct scoring play