The Denver Nuggets will never be truly ready for the playoffs

I maintain that the Denver Nuggets can still win the championship, but the odds remain low as March gives way to April next week.

73 games in and with just nine to go, the Nuggets are now 45-28 on the year. Nikola Jokic has missed the last five games, and the Nuggets are 2-3.

Good things have happened in his absence, including impressive play from Jamal Murray and some tough wins vs the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.

Bad things have happened in his absence too, with a Michael Porter Jr. five-game slump highlighted by a 1-of-10 three-point shooting performance on Monday night along with subpar losses to the Portland Trail Blazers and Chicago Bulls.

It wasn’t Porter’s shooting that lost Denver the game though. It was the 127.7 Defensive Rating allowed to a sub 0.500 team, just another statistically poor defensive performance on a laundry list of poor defensive games throughout the season. If there’s one thing the Nuggets have grown comfortable doing over the last 73 games, it’s playing subpar defense.

On the season, the Nuggets rank 22nd in schedule adjusted Defensive Rating on Dunks and Threes. That’s not quite horrible, but it’s getting there. The last time the Nuggets ranked this low defensively, they won 46 games in 2017-18 and lost in “Game 82” to the Minnesota Timberwolves. That was Jokic’s third season in the NBA. This is his 10th season. It’s been seven years.

It shouldn’t really be a surprise that Denver was this bad, but I wasn’t prepared for it preseason. I thought Denver had a chance to be better defensively than they were offensively despite losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope given a reaffirming of different defensive personnel like Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and of course Christian Braun. That’s turned out to be a horrible take.

The Nuggets as a whole have simply been unable to do the detail work defensively. Denver ranks 6th in most opponent points in the paint, 11th in most opponent points off turnovers, 7th in most opponent fast break points, and 12th in most opponent second chance points. Opposing teams are shooting the 11th most three-pointers against them and hitting at the 8th highest three-point percentage. They force the fourth fewest turnovers per possession in the NBA.

Quite simply, they don’t DO anything well defensively. Except not foul, and even that’s starting to shift negatively post All-Star Break.

Then, there’s the lineup questions. Denver needs their floor spacers and offensive options on the floor to generate and maintain strong playoff offense. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. share the floor in most combinations and often have to be out there. One might think the team would improve defensively if they remove one or multiple of those players, and while they do improve in minor ways, the offense drops like a lead pipe to outpace any possible defensive improvement.

It’s quite the conundrum.

When asking why Denver has been so bad on the less glamorous end of the floor this year, there are a number of justifiable answers. The effort has simply been worse across the board. When it’s not the effort, it’s the communication. When it’s not the communication, it’s the physicality. When it’s not the physicality, it’s often the athleticism.

The Nuggets do know they have to be better. Ask Michael Malone and he will tell you every time. Ask Christian Braun, and he often notes Denver’s lacking nature as a group. He’s seen championship teams and knows there’s still work to be done. Ask Nikola Jokic, and he will tell you that flipping a switch is impossible, meaning that what Denver’s shown so far probably isn’t far off from who they’re going to be in the important moments.

Ask Jamal Murray, and he still has hope and belief. It’s one of his best traits. He’s an extremely resilient player and one of the reasons Denver fans retain some hope.

“Just more talk on the court so everybody knows where we’re at,” Murray shared Monday night as something he hopes Denver can improve defensively before the playoffs start. Murray said they do talk, but “For the playoffs coming up, I’m just saying that we need to be a little bit better…that will take care some of the mistakes or breakdowns that we’re having.”

Murray knows better than I do, but it seems like wishful thinking to be trying to hone these skills in March and April. Denver appears unpracticed as a whole when it comes to communication, flying around, covering for each other, and understanding what to do without needing to be told. That last part is the key to me. A great defense doesn’t need to be told what to do but simply understands and applies it. A good defense needs a reminder every now and then. An average defense needs to be constantly reminded but eventually figures it out.

The Nuggets have been constantly reminded. If there’s one thing I’ve taken away from attending every home game this season, it’s the exasperation Malone tries to hide every time he’s asked about simple effort and awareness questions regarding Denver’s defense. It’s something Denver, if they were a serious defense, wouldn’t have to be constantly chided for. And yet, that’s where we currently stand.

So, do the Nuggets have hope? Yes.

Are the Nuggets ready for the playoffs? No.

Will the Nuggets ever be ready for the playoffs? Probably not.

The growth period is past. The refinement period is past. Denver’s in the exhaustion period of the season, trying to make up for lost time. There have been some good moments post All-Star breaks. Wins against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State Warriors, and Houston Rockets are all notable in some way. And yet, the Nuggets are 9-9 due to the difficult schedule and the constant reminder of the same lessons over and over again.

Denver’s probably going to have to learn these important lessons on the fly. They’re still trying to figure out that defending in the first half is in fact legal.

We’ve seen teams figure it out in short periods of time, and there have been occasional signs that Denver can do it too. Jokic’s ankle was clearly impacting his mobility, and he played an additional seven games beyond the Boston game when he hurt it on the jump ball. Perhaps getting off his feet, getting some rest, and refreshing a bit before the playoffs can help him anchor some things.

Christian Braun and Peyton Watson have also improved in their screen navigation throughout the year to the point where they’re pretty good at it now. That’s the most important factor in Denver’s defense, making those shots and reads challenging for primary ball handlers at the top of the offense.

And then there’s the fact that Denver’s group, outside of Braun and Watson, is most likely to be a veteran group of playoff ready players. Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Porter, Russell Westbrook, even DeAndre Jordan should be able to level up their intensity and focus in those important moments Will they actually do that successfully? Will anyone else actually join them? That remains to be seen.

Denver’s never going to be truly ready, but they might be good enough to solve problems on the fly. It’s going to take better communication, better hustle, better, grit, and most importantly, some actual belief in each other. The Nuggets have to truly believe they can do this, because right now, it looks like the entire team has zero belief it can actually do the thing defensively.

Is anyone going to change their minds?