Make no mistake: the NFL is still a passing league, but emerging trends indicate that the cyclical nature of the sport may be set to favor the power running game once again.
Consider the Seahawks’ dominant Super Bowl LX win; despite the presence of league-leading wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle relied on a swarming, stalwart defense and on the legs of free-agent-to-be Kenneth Walker III, who dominated the Patriots with 135 yards on the ground, most of them between the tackles. Walker was one of 17 running backs to surpass 1,000 rushing yards last season, but only eight of those reached the playoffs with their team, including league-leader James Cook of the Bills. It’s worth noting, however, that the next two backs on the list – the Ravens’ Derrick Henry and the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor – stood an excellent chance of making it were it not for lengthy injuries to starting quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones, respectively. The Lions, who missed the playoffs despite the outstanding tandem of 1,000-yard rusher Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, were perhaps the league’s most shocking disappointment.
It’s not always the running backs, though – it’s also who’s calling the plays – and a list of teams that called the most runs last season proves even more revealing.
Out the league’s top 11 teams in rushing attempts, eight of them – 73 percent – made the playoffs. The Ravens (who ranked 4th), as we discussed, only missed due the Jackson’s injury, and the Commanders (who ranked 9th) made it to the NFC Championship game in the previous season. There, electric young quarterback Jayden Daniels missed a whopping 10 games in the just-completed one.
The Broncos, who only got to enjoy 10 games from J.K. Dobbins before he was injured by a hip-drop tackle (a dangerous play that the NFL is still trying to figure out how to eliminate) finished 19th in the league in rushing attempts. Once Dobbins was unavailable, the Broncos were so ineffective between the tackles that they nearly gave up on it entirely – and they literally did in the most-important and most-discussed play of the AFC Championship: head coach Sean Payton’s choice to pass up an opportunity to take a chip-shot field-goal attempt (by today’s kicking standards, at least) and a two-score lead, in order to go for it on fourth-and-short… and then calling a rollout-pass against an obvious blitz with a backup quarterback. While it’s true that FanDuel’s Kay Adams isn’t likely to fawn over your ‘offensive genius’ when you call a power run up the middle, there’s a reason that teams usually do exactly that – because it works, and it can and does win you football games like the one the Broncos lost.
Payton ranked 21st in the league in percentage of run plays called (41.7%); only now-former head coach Mike Tomlin of the Steelers called runs at a lower rate (41.2%) among teams that made the playoffs. The Steelers, considered by far the AFC’s weakest playoff team, were easily dispatched in the wild-card round by the lower-seeded Texans in Houston’s 30-6 demolition.
In contrast, Nix, as a second-year quarterback led the league in dropbacks this season – not league MVP Matt Stafford of the Rams, not the Lions’ Jared Goff, not Dak Prescott of the Cowboys – nobody had more dropbacks than Nix’s 669. Lest you think that Dobbins’ injury was the reason for that, Nix was also 6th in the NFL (642) in his rookie season. When in doubt, Payton picks the pass, and opposing teams know it; just ask Jarrett Stidham.
Rookie runner RJ Harvey was supposed to be the Broncos’ solution; a bowling-ball back with outstanding balance, fans in Denver – and fantasy football players everywhere – thrilled at the fit. Dobbins handled most of the inside work while he was healthy, but Harvey was effective there as well… at least, when Payton gave him the opportunity.
On 61 inside runs last season, Harvey averaged 4.9 yards per carry; a number right in line with the powerful and experienced Dobbins (5.0). But Payton, always looking for instant offense, preferred to keep Harvey to the outside; he had 58 receiving targets (for 5 touchdowns, 3rd among Broncos receivers) and 78 carries outside the tackles, where he averaged a disastrous 2.9 yards per carry. He was stuffed behind the line of scrimmage on his remaining seven carries last season, finishing with a 3.7 yards-per-carry average; ranking him 6th among Broncos rushers with more than 10 carries on the season, behind wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. (6.5, 1st), undersized 3rd-string runner Jaleel McLaughlin (5.1, 2nd), Nix (4.3, 5th), and even fullback Adam Prentice (4.4, 4th). While Harvey had 12 total touchdowns to lead all rookies in a terrific debut season, the numbers don’t lie; Payton used him the least where he was the most effective. Could that change next season? Of course; but if you wisely take Payton’s lengthy and successful career into account, one definitely shouldn’t assume that it will.
Broncos fans seem to be sensing the sea change that’s building across the NFL; offseason hopes center around Super Bowl MVP Walker, Jets escapee Breece Hall, and promising Falcons backup Tyler Allgeier, now freed from having to pick from all-purpose superstar Bijan Robinson’s scraps. Clamoring for a balanced offense that allows the Broncos to not only run when they want to, but when they need to, makes sense… but there’s little indication that the head coach feels the same way.
Payton has done an unequivocally brilliant job as the Broncos’ head coach – the wins speak for themselves. He’s made the Broncos contenders again by shaping them into his own image. It’s no secret or surprise that Payton’s a pass-happy coach, and for the most part, it’s worked for him throughout his career. It worked brilliantly for him this season… until it didn’t. But moments like the fateful fourth-down decision – the decision to become too clever by half on the critical play-call – have been part and parcel of The Sean Payton Experience.
The NFL game is changing; whether Payton sees fit to adapt to that will not only define the Broncos’ offseason, but it might turn out to be the deciding factor between whether or not the franchise will make it to the 9th Super Bowl in it’s storied history during his tenure.
