A lot goes into building a winning franchise. There’s has to be a commitment from ownership; even though pro sports is a business, the boss need to value more than just the bottom line. A front office with a vision is also necessary; the brass need to know what type of roster they’re trying to build, as well as what kind of person is going to lead them. And a coach who is the perfect mix of strategist and psychologist is needed, someone who can draw up the perfect plays and push the proper buttons to get the most out of the players assembled for him.
But perhaps more than anything, winning teams need a healthy dose of one other ingredient: Luck.
In the end, game plans only go so far; the most important piece of any winning team is having the right players to execute them. And while talent can be found in unusual places, perhaps even developed over time, it often falls into a team’s lap.
Back in 1979, the first overall pick in the NBA Draft was determined by a coin flip. The Los Angeles Lakers won the toss, selecting Earvin “Magic” Johnson with the top choice. The Chicago Bulls wound up picking second, settling for UCLA’s David Greenwood. Pure chance turned one franchise into a dynasty, while the other continued to sputter.
Six years later, the No. 1 pick was going to result in Patrick Ewing; the Georgetown center was the consensus top prospect. In order to prevent teams from tanking down the stretch of the previous season, the NBA instituted the first-ever draft lottery. All of the non-playoff teams were slotted at random, with the New York Knicks drawing the winning ticket; they’d go on to make the playoffs during 13 of Ewing’s 15 seasons in the Big Apple, including two trips to the Finals.
In 1987, the San Antonio Spurs went from a doormat to a perennial playoff team after winning the right to draft David Robinson with the first pick. Eight years later, they’d elevate into one of the best teams of all-time when they struck gold again, this time using the No. 1 overall selection to add Tim Duncan; that lucky bounce has, at least in part, led to five NBA titles for the Spurs.
Those kinds of things just don’t seem to happen for the Nuggets. On the luck meter, the franchise has rarely seen the needle move.
Despite being in 13 of the previous 31 lotteries the NBA has held, Denver has never landed the top prize; in fact, they’ve never even improved their position, always finishing with the same or a worse pick than if win-loss record still determined the draft order. Had no lottery existed during that same three-decade stretch, the Nuggets would have been picking at the top of the draft two or three times; the third would have come via a coin flip, which would have given Denver a 50-50 shot of seeing the franchise changed forever.
In 2003, the Cleveland Cavaliers had the same chance of landing the first overall pick in the draft as the Nuggets; both teams had finished the previous season with an equally dismal 17-65 record. But when the ping-pong balls were done bouncing around, one franchise with a 22.5 percent chance of winning the lottery was celebrating; 13 years later, the Cavs have played in two NBA Finals and are on the verge of making it to another, due in large part because they were able to select LeBron James with the No. 1 overall pick after having a luckier night than the Nuggets.
Denver fared fine in that draft, winding up with the third pick (despite tying for the worst-record in the league) and grabbing Carmelo Anthony. But a trip to the Western Conference Finals in 2009 was as far as Melo ever led the Nuggets in the playoffs before forcing his way to New York via a trade in 2011. It’s hard not to think the Nuggets would have been a powerhouse had they been able to bring King James to the Mile High City.
All of which leads to tomorrow night. Once again, Denver is in the lottery – a 14th trip to the NBA’s version of bingo. And once again, the Nuggets have a chance to see the fate of the franchise transformed if they can get a lucky bounce.
Currently, Denver has most of the pieces in place to build a winner. They have an owner who has proven he’s willing to make bold moves, evidenced by both the Allen Iverson and Chauncey Billups trades. They have a front office that has made some shrewd moves, finding talent in off-beat places and stockpiling draft choices. And they have a decent young core of players, highlighted by Danilo Gallinari, Emmanuel Mudiay, Will Barton and Jusuf Nurkic.
But the Nuggets don’t have a star. They have a lot of guys who could be really good role players, as well as someone (Mudiay) that has the look of an ideal Robin; but they are still in search of their Batman. That player exists in this year’s draft, however.
Ben Simmons is the most likely prize in Tuesday’s night’s lottery. He’s listed as a 6-foot-10 forward, but has the skills to play any position on the court; in today’s NBA, where length on the perimeter is at a premium, his versatility makes him a player that has scouts drooling. And his penchant for winning – he led Florida’s Montverde Academy to three consecutive high school national titles – is a trait that shouldn’t be discounted; yes, he couldn’t overcome the dysfunction at LSU during his lone season in college, but Simmons has shown an ability to lead his teams to victory on the biggest stages in the past.
It’s hard not to think how good the Nuggets could be with him in the mix. Literally overnight, they’d have a group of young players that would provide them with a great core for the next decade.
They only need the ball to bounce their way. Just once.
It didn’t happen when the prize was Larry Johnson or Shaquille O’Neal. It wasn’t meant to be when Iverson or Duncan were atop everyone’s draft board. And it didn’t go their way when LeBron James or Andrew Wiggins were there for the taking.
Perhaps, this time is different. Eventually, the basketball gods have to shine on the Nuggets. At some point, they’re due to catch a break. One of these days, luck will be on their side.
So break out the rabbit’s foot, cross fingers, say a few words to the man upstairs, or whatever else might help. Because if Tuesday night goes well, Denver will be on the verge of a pro basketball renaissance.
