The Rockies are in the midst of an eight-game losing streak and with the trade deadline on the horizon, it’s time for the front office to start shopping.
Even with Jon Gray on the cusp of returning and the young starting rotation outperforming preseason expectations, the Rockies still need a true ace of a starter to compete with the likes of Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw come playoff time.
Some of the starting pitchers being discussed as trade targets include Justin Verlander, Johnny Cueto, and Jason Vargas.
Verlander, though he may not be the world-beater he once was, still has shown flashes of greatness in 2017. He’s 5-4 with a 4.47 ERA and has picked up 92 strikeouts in 94.2 innings pitched. These stats, however, are largely at Comerica Park which has a park factor of 1.046, rating out to only slightly favor hitters over pitchers (1.000 is even). Verlander has never pitched at Coors Field, but at Target Field (home of the Minnesota Twins), which rates out similarly to Coors Field in the 2017 MLB Park Factor, Verlander has thrown 19.1 innings and gone 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA from 2014-2016. Another field that rates similarly to Coors Field is Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks. In the same three year stretch (2014-2016), Verlander has a 4.05 ERA in his lone game in Arizona.
Though Verlander has performed well in his starts in similar fields to Coors Field, he is undoubtedly on the decline. This, in addition to his $65 million hit over the next two seasons makes Verlander a pricey chance to take for the Rockies.
Johnny Cueto would be an interesting addition, but the fact that he is currently on a division rival could complicate things. Cueto is 5-7 with a 4.20 ERA in 16 starts this season, but these numbers come mostly in AT&T Park, which is the most pitcher-friendly park in the league.
Interestingly, in the less-friendly confines of Chase Field and Coors Field, Cueto has been much better. In the last three seasons at Chase Field, Cueto has gone 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA in four starts, only allowing an opponent batting average of .221. Coors Field has been even nicer to Cueto, where he has gone 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA.
Cueto has shown that he can deal at Coors Field, and at 31 years old he’s the youngest of these possible targets for the Rockies. The biggest issue with going after Cueto is that he currently belongs to a division rival in the San Francisco Giants. If the Rockies can work something out, Cueto could be a solid addition to the front of the rotation for a 2017 playoff push, even if he doesn’t re-sign when his contract expires at the end of the season. Cueto isn’t expected to re-sign with San Francisco, so they may be more willing to part with him.
Jason Vargas is having the best 2017 season of the three targets with a 11-3 record in 15 starts, including a complete game, and a 2.29 ERA. Like Cueto, Vargas plays in a more pitcher-friendly park, but with a Park Factor of 0.908, Kauffman is fairly close to an even split. In the less-friendly confines of Target Field, Vargas has posted an impressive 3-1 record and 2.10 ERA over five starts. Target Field isn’t historically on the same level of a hitter’s park as Coors Field, but it is fairly close.
These stats bode well for the Rockies if they can pull off a move to trade for the 34-year-old starter, but with the season Vargas is having the price could be steep. The Royals are middle-of-the-road this season with a 34-34 record, sitting 3.5 games out of first place in the AL Central. If Kansas City decides to blow it up and become sellers at the trade deadline, the Rockies would be wise to put together a nice package of young players to try to add Vargas.
Colorado is only missing an arm or two to really become contenders in the postseason. If they can break out of the current slump and push back towards the top of the NL West, expect a deal to go down for a big-name pitcher to add to the top of the young rotation.
