It’s a bit rich to actually have keys to a preseason game, but the Denver Nuggets are operating under championship expectations.
The preseason opener on Saturday night was an okay showing. On rewatch, the Nuggets actually ran a lot of intelligent stuff on the offensive end, generated some great possessions, and have a good idea of where they need to go from here. That vision comes from some of the mistakes that were made, obviously understandable in a preseason game but notable nonetheless.
Here are three things that stood out that the Nuggets must clean up before the regular season:
1 Turnover forced in the first half on Saturday
There are four primary factors to consider when evaluating a defense: forcing missed shots, avoiding free throws, grabbing rebounds, and forcing turnovers. Denver wasn’t great in any particular category, but where they truly struggled was being disruptive to what the T’Wolves wanted to do. One forced turnover in the first half was bad, especially with the Nuggets playing an “at the level” scheme that should (in theory) force difficult passes out of a trap.
As the Nuggets attempt to show they can win a title, finding a defensive rhythm will be very important. One large piece of that is disrupting the opposition as often as possible. Denver doesn’t have to gamble, but they will have to be more proactive cutting off drives, playing passing lanes, and moving their feet better.
Denver proved during the title run that they didn’t have to be an elite defense for a full season to win a championship. Still, they showed they had that gear on several occasions. It will be interesting to see if or when the Nuggets find their defensive stride this year.
Zero Offensive Rebounds until late in the third quarter
When Zeke Nnaji entered the game and grabbed two offensive rebounds with about 1:30 left in the third quarter, those were the first of the game for the entire Nuggets roster.
Usually, the Nuggets identity has been tied to elite rebounding. At times, they’ve been close to league leaders on both ends of the floor. Last year, Denver’s overall rebounding rate was second in the NBA, but their defensive rebounding rate specifically fell back to average. They were a highly impactful offensive rebounding team, led by Nikola Jokic, DeAndre Jordan, and Aaron Gordon.
This year, the Nuggets moved Michael Porter Jr., one of their better rebounders, for Cam Johnson as more of a perimeter player. The starting lineup, offensively, isn’t going to hit the glass as hard. The bench, despite adding Jonas Valanciunas, probably won’t either. With a perimeter quartet of Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Julian Strawther, and Peyton Watson expected to play the most, the Nuggets are leaving Valanciunas to battle on the offensive glass by himself.
It’s something to monitor this preseason, starting with tonight against another athletic Toronto Raptors squad.
Three-Point Shooting Volume
The Nuggets offense wasn’t a problem on Saturday. In fact, with Jamal Murray on the court, the Nuggets had a 132.4 Offensive Rating, which was even higher than Jokic. Denver has their way of doing things, and they work for open shots, cuts, free throws, and around the mid-range more than just about any team in the NBA.
Unfortunately, the byproduct of that often results in three-point shooting disparity. In fact, the Nuggets attempted just nine three-pointers in the first half on Saturday, with Murray, Gordon, and Christian Braun each making one apiece. The bench didn’t make a three until the second half.
For teams that can capably match Denver’s size in the paint, have disruptive guards to poke the ball away from the guards, or teams that decide to prevent Jokic from touching the ball in the middle, there are lots of ways to cut off an offensive attack that operates primarily inside of 15 feet.
The Nuggets had 29 games last season when they made 10 or fewer three-pointers, fourth most in the NBA. That seems like a recipe for disaster at the wrong moment, which is anecdotal but true because it happened in Game 7 vs the Thunder last May.
Get the threes up. Be comfortable being uncomfortable, because those uncomfortable shots may save Denver in a series down the line.