The Denver Nuggets enter the 2024-25 season with a drastically different bench unit from the season before.
Gone are Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday, the two veteran contributors with the most bench minutes. Gone is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from the starting lineup which assumably elevates Christian Braun from his position as Denver’s seventh man.
Peyton Watson remains in a featured bench role, joined by incoming veteran free agents Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric. Vlatko Cancar was also re-signed and is expected to compete for minutes. Zeke Nnaji and DeAndre Jordan return but are likely to have reduced roles, as are Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson. DaRon Holmes was expected to compete for playing time as a rookie, but a torn achilles during Summer League in July will prevent him from seeing the floor.
That was a total of nine players named from Denver’s bench this year. The 10th and final player (excluding two-way contracts) is Julian Strawther.
Before a knee injury sidelined Julian Strawther for over a month, the 29th pick of the 2023 NBA Draft was playing a consistent role on Denver’s bench. Strawther played 33 out of 36 games before the injury and logged double-digit minutes in 22 of them. He didn’t have the complete trust of the Nuggets coaching staff, but head coach Michael Malone consistently provided opportunities for Strawther to earn more and more time.
Despite low shooting efficiency numbers (36.9 FG%, 29.7 3P%, 48.2 TS%) Strawther was consistently showing good process in how he operated within Denver’s bench offense. He was a weak link defensively but competed on that end. He even made some connective passes that showed a level of basketball IQ and understanding that boded well for his future. Unfortunately, the injury forced the Nuggets to consider their playoff future, and the introduction of Justin Holiday into Strawther’s rotation spot proved a useful inclusion.
Now heading into Year 2 without Holiday or Caldwell-Pope, Julian Strawther is Denver’s most important bench player.
Here are three reasons why:
Positional Need
The Nuggets wing depth is decidedly questionable.
Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook are both best at point guard. They will play together some, but after last year’s unfortunate pairing of Murray and Reggie Jackson, I will believe the Murray-Westbrook fit when I see it. Jalen Pickett will need a bounce back season to earn an opportunity again. Trey Alexander might actually pass him on the depth chart and has some potential to play shooting guard, but he’s a rookie with a thin frame.
Michael Porter Jr. is more of a hybrid forward than hybrid wing. Peyton Watson is a wing, but unless his shooting improves, he might be a better fit at power forward on offense anyway. Hunter Tyson isn’t athletic enough to guard wings, while Spencer Jones is an unknown.
That leaves Braun, Strawther, and perhaps Watson as the three true wings on the roster. That’s not enough…unless of course Strawther steps up and fills the void.
If there are 48 shooting guard minutes to fill every night, it’s likely that Braun plays 25 to 30. Assume Westbrook and Murray play about five minutes per game together every night. Strawther will have an opportunity to step into a readymade 13 to 18 minute per game role from the get-go and carve out more time during the season. Whenever Braun misses a game, there’s also an opportunity for Strawther to start in his place.
The Nuggets need Strawther, or they need another capable wing that doesn’t currently exist on the roster.
Shooting Woes
There’s also no need to beat around the bush around this one: the Nuggets bench unit has disaster shooting potential this year.
Westbrook and Saric are the only players with over 100 career made 3-pointers, and Westbrook hasn’t shot above 34% from 3 in a single season of his NBA career. He will generate good shots for his teammates, but it remains to be seen if the Nuggets have the personnel to take advantage.
Strawther shot just 29.7% from 3-point range last year, surprisingly low after shooting 40.8% in his junior season at Gonzaga. His year was cut short though, and there’s a chance that his percentages would have improved in the second half of the season.
The rest of the list paints a bleak picture though. Saric had a strong 2023-24 season shooting the ball, making 74 3’s on 37.6% efficiency. Him replicating those numbers would go a long way, but it’s clear that players like Westbrook and Watson will consistently cramp the spacing (unless Watson also takes a step in the right direction).
There’s a world where Strawther shoots 31% on volume and never really looks comfortable in a featured scoring role off the bench. Teams are going to treat him like a shooter because they don’t have to respect others, and that can mess with a young player’s head.
There’s also a world where Strawther shoots closer to 40% on volume, and that could mean the difference between a terrible bench unit and a sustainable bench unit. If Strawther can up his efficiency levels in his second season, he becomes almost irreplaceable as a bench floor spacer.
The Ceiling Factor
I’ve made this point in other articles and podcasts and will reiterate that the Nuggets still can win a championship. Unfortunately, they’ve reached what I’ve called their “Half-Life” as a contender with this current core. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon are all at or around their prime years, and expecting that quartet to get better going forward is a dangerous game. There will be slightly better or worse seasons, but it’s very possible that 2023 was a peak moment rather than a launching point for all other title runs.
With that in mind, it’s important for the Nuggets to always explore ways to replenish their talent. Calvin Booth has done this by drafting the quartet of Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, and DaRon Holmes in the first round of the last four drafts. The Nuggets can’t just hope those guys fill in for 15 minutes per game off the bench for the next five years. At some point, these guys might need to start games next to Jokic in critical moments.
Braun is first up among that quartet, and the Nuggets will wait a year for Holmes to recover from injury. It’s very possible that Watson and Strawther are the sixth and seventh players in a playoff rotation this year and might be starters in the future. Finding out exactly what they can do is important for the present and future of the organization. Is Strawther a player to feature offensively for a role in the playoffs? Is he a trade chip? Can he hold up defensively? Will his efficiency start to spike like the Nuggets believe it will?
These are critical points for a Nuggets team that has lost starting level wing talent over the last two offseasons. Strawther could absolutely fill in the gaps, but don’t know for sure.
