The Denver Broncos are likely to draft a quarterback with the fifth overall pick if they don’t land Kirk Cousins in free agency, but what might happen to the team’s draft strategy if they are fortunate enough to land the former Michigan State man?
Strategy down at Dove Valley would likely change drastically, as the focus on the fifth overall pick shifts to landing a premiere offensive lineman, defensive star, offensive weapon, or potentially, stockpiling picks and trading it away.
If a team does comes around with a juicy proposition, would Denver move off their pick? It takes two to tango, so — hypothetically — who wants to dance?
Here are five different, outside-the-box scenarios where the Broncos might consider a move out and benefit greatly, were they come to pass.
- Trade down with Buffalo:
Trading down with Buffalo makes the most sense if the Broncos sign Cousins. The Broncos could acquire both of Buffalo’s back-to-back first-round picks (No. 21 and No. 22 overall) The Broncos would be dealing away 1700 points in draft value — according to DraftTek — with the No. 5 overall pick and acquiring 1580 points in return, just simply by swapping the first-round picks. To make up the short value leftover that would even the deal for the Broncos, Denver would move up a round, sending their third-round pick (No. 71 overall) to the Bills for their second-round pick (No. 55).
If Denver is to land Kirk Cousins in free agency, the trade down would a perfect way of re-stocking talent in positions that would be casualties of the budget due to Cousins’ big contract. This also makes a lot of sense for Buffalo, who was the team that Kansas City traded up with to select their quarterback of the future in Patrick Mahomes, all while needing a quarterback themselves.
Nathan Peterman is not the solution and Tyrod Taylor is on the block to be cut by the Bills, making him a free agent. Buffalo’s can select their quarterback of the future at No. 5, making up for the sour taste of trading away who could’ve been their starter this year in Mahomes.
- Trade down with Arizona:
Arizona doesn’t have a quarterback on their roster and will pick No. 15 overall in the first-round. With a value of 1050 draft points, the No. 15 overall, packaged with Arizona’s second-round pick (No. 47) and a future later-round pick, could be a blockbuster trade that Denver would consider.
The trade would hinge on the Cardinals falling in love with one of the top four signal-callers, knowing that all four wouldn’t fall to them at No. 15 — and willing to mortgage their short-term future on that arm.
If Cousins chooses Denver and not New York or Arizona, the Cardinals would do themselves wonders to move up, leap quarterback-needy New York at No. 6 and strike a deal with the Broncos. If offensive guard Quenton Nelson out of Notre Dame or running back Saquon Barkley out of Penn State is available at five, it’s an enticing pick for Denver. However, stocking the shelves for the future with young talent may prove to be better value.
- Trade down with San Francisco:
John Lynch has been executing moves with little hesitation ever since he took over at general manager for the 49ers. Moving up in the draft could be another big move that Lynch could pull off — with the help of his friends in Denver.
The 49ers have plenty more work to do after the Jimmy Garoppolo trade, and nothing more would rejuvenate that offense and put the 49ers on the map than a move to get Penn State running back Saquon Barkley. The 49ers had the 21st-ranked run game in 2017, so bolstering it to pair with Garoppolo would give the offense a complete facelift that could bring success to San Francisco for years.
The 49ers sit at No. 10 right now in the NFL draft and in a position to move up for the guy they want. There are many spots on defense that are of need for the 49ers, but with a productive free agent crop and with money to spend, the 49ers could plug those holes first, then target Barkley, a tremendous playmaker at the running back position.
The 49ers still have a second-round pick at their disposal after making a 2016 move to land the New Orleans’ second-round pick. It would likely take somewhere in the realm of the San Francisco first-round pick (No. 10), second-round pick (No. 59), and either a future mid-round pick, or their third-rounder (No. 74 or No. 75 based on coin flip result) to get the deal moving. That particular deal does favor Denver according to value points, so a later-round pick thrown in by Denver could balance things out and seal the deal. This deal also wouldn’t decimate the 49ers’ draft either, as they have another third-round pick (No. 70) left over.
- Player/Pick trade with Pittsburgh:
Ben Roethlisberger isn’t getting younger and the Steelers may fall in love with the idea of nabbing Wyoming’s athletic Josh Allen from Wyoming and sitting him for a year of tutoring behind Roethlisberger.
In order for the Steelers to pull off a trade like this with Denver, a player may need to be involved, as the Steelers don’t pick until No. 28 this year. Trading towards the back end of the first round is nearly like acquiring a second-round pick, so to sweeten the pot, multiple other selections, including some in 2019, and possibly wide receiver Martavis Bryant would be needed to move the needle.
It’s the lesser of the potential deals that may come to fruition, however Bryant is a trade chip that the Broncos may like in the event that they move on from Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, or both. Bryant caught 50 passes last year for 603 yards, finding the end zone three times in 2017. Bryant is owed a bargain number of $705,000 for 2018, helping the Broncos’ salary cap in the event Cousins chooses the Mile High City while retaining premiere talent at the wide receiver position.
- Trade up with Cleveland:
If Denver falls in love with a rookie quarterback and simply must have him, trading up to the No. 1 overall selection isn’t out of the picture.
With the Browns holding the top pick overall, as well as the No. 4 overall selection. there’s a lot of flexibility available for Cleveland, should they decide to either stay put, or move down and stockpile a king’s ransom.
The Browns are the likely favorite for free agent quarterback A.J. McCarron, meaning trading down may enticing for the Browns, who would receive the farm and then some for the top pick.
Trading up would mean matching the expected 3000-point value that the top pick holds. Denver would likely need to move their first-round pick (No. 5), their first-round selection next year and potentially a second-round pick next year — and that’s just the starting point.
We’ve seen teams get desperate in the past for a top-two selection, when the Washington Redskins sent three first-round selections in a move to trade up to the No. 2 overall spot (looking at you, Dan Snyder) with the then-St. Louis Rams to get Robert Griffin III.
While deals like what the Redskins and Rams engaged in are baffling and seem near farfetched, mortgaging the future for the quarterback that general manager John Elway believes could pilot the Broncos to success for years to come is a price that could be afforded — if they want their guy that badly.
