Open your wallet, Elway. It’s time to hand Brock Osweiler a big fat check.
In the last two games, Osweiler has made himself millions, lots of millions, and the best thing the Broncos can do is lock down No. 17 before he earns himself any more millions.
In a matter of months, Brock Osweiler is going to be an unrestricted free agent, and given that he’s suddenly become one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the NFL, that means someone is going to pay him a lot of money. Because in the NFL, teams will do just about anything to find themselves a franchise quarterback, even if that means overpaying someone that they barely knew existed six months earlier.
Just look at the likes of Matt Flynn, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown; career backups who were gifted blank checks following an impressive run of games. Now, Osweiler isn’t a career backup — Aaron Rodgers is probably a better comparison, at least in terms of how their organizations viewed them — but it just goes to show how desperate teams can get.
Right now, Brock Osweiler is currently the 51st highest-paid quarterback in the NFL with a cap hit of $1.1 million. By the time next season rolls around, expect that number to be a lot higher.
And so if the Broncos do plan on making Osweiler their quarterback of the future, which it sure seems like they do, they have three options: (a) They sign him to an extension now; (b) they wait until Osweiler becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and then sign him; or (c) they slap the franchise tag on him.
If the Broncos were to use the franchise tag on Osweiler, it means that they don’t have to worry about losing their heir apparent for another year, allowing them to focus on other big-name free agents (Von Miller); it will also end up costing them a lot more money in the short term, somewhere between $18-22 million in 2016.
That’s probably a last-case scenario for the Broncos, a safety net in case they can’t get a long-term deal done, but it’s definitely on the table.
The best case scenario for the Broncos is clearly getting a deal done right now. Unfortunately, it takes two to tango, and I’d be shocked if Osweiler and his agent plan on signing a contract any time soon.
The Brock Stock is soaring right now; if he can keep winning, get to the postseason and maybe even win a playoff game, Brock could be looking at a top-five quarterback type of deal.
If I’m Osweiler’s agent, I’m telling Elway that he had his chance to sign Brock to an extension before the season; now, he’s going to have to wait. And I don’t blame him. Brock has sat on the bench for a long time, and he deserves to make himself as much money as possible, even if that does put Denver in a bad position.
So what should John Elway be doing right now?
Well, first off, he should be doing everything he can to get Brock under contract before he reaches free agency. If that doesn’t work, and I doubt it will, then it really doesn’t matter; the Broncos will have to match any offer he gets this offseason or hand him the franchise tag when all else fails.
Luckily, the Broncos do have the cap space to do just that. Spotrac.com has Denver with an estimated $20 million in cap room heading into the offseason, but that number should jump to nearly $48 million (fourth most in the league) when they inevitably part ways with Peyton Manning and Ryan Clady — they could clear up another $10 million by releasing Demarcus Ware. That should leave plenty of cash for both Osweiler and Von Miller, as well as several other key free agents.
So, long story short, the Broncos missed their opportunity to lock Osweiler up on the cheap. That said, there’s a better chance Peyton Manning runs a 4.4-second 40-yard dash this offseason than there is seeing Osweiler playing for another franchise.
You can fault Elway for plenty of things, but one thing he’s always been able to do to perfection is allow the Broncos to have flexibility in the offseason; 2016 will be no different, and I’d expect him to continue to craft this roster around Brock Osweiler.
