No pro football team has repeated as the Super Bowl champion since the New England Patriots did it in the 2004 season. Judging by the current odds to win Super Bowl LI, odds makers aren’t overly confident that the Denver Broncos will be able to accomplish that feat in 2016 as they are +1100 on NFL odds to win Super Bowl LI on the first Sunday in February in Houston.
What are the Odds for Denver to Repeat as Super Bowl Champion?
In these salary-cap days, it’s tough for a Super Bowl team to simply get back to the title game because it’s incredibly expensive to keep a championship roster together. Other teams come and poach your guys and that certainly happened with the Broncos this offseason. Denver’s defense was the NFL’s best in 2015 and reason No. 1 why the Broncos won it all. But two very important pieces of that unit, end Malik Jackson and linebacker Danny Trevathan, have moved on. Jackson got a whopping $90 million free-agent deal with Jacksonville. Jackson, the Broncos’ fifth-round pick in 2012, posted a career-best 45 tackles in 2015 and knocked down a career-best seven passes. In Pro Football Focus grading, Jackson boasted the seventh-best pass-rush rating among all interior defensive linemen last season (88.5). Jackson also recovered Super Bowl MVP Von Miller’s forced fumble in the end zone for the Broncos’ defensive touchdown in their 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50.
Trevathan, meanwhile, signed with the Chicago Bears for $24.5 million. Trevathan led the Broncos in tackles in two of the past three seasons, topping 100 tackles in those two years. He started all but one game in the regular season in 2015 and all three of the team’s postseason games. Trevathan was a rare three-down linebacker, able to stop the run and play in coverage.
But of course Denver’s biggest loss was retired future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, although 2015 was statistically his worst season. Still, you can’t teach the knowledge and leadership that Manning possessed. The last time that Denver won a Super Bowl was in 1998 when they repeated under future Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway, now the team’s personnel boos. Elway retired on top and the Broncos fell from a 14-2 regular-season record in ’98 to 6-10 in 1999.
So who starts under center for the Broncos on Week 1 on Sept. 8 in a Super Bowl rematch with Carolina? The Panthers have opened as 3-point favorites even though the defending Super Bowl winner is 10-2 in those Kickoff Games. The Broncos groomed Brock Osweiler to be Manning’s replacement, but Osweiler went scurrying to Houston in free agency. Most believe Mark Sanchez will be the Week 1 guy. For what it’s worth, Sanchez had a rating of 80.6 last year in four games with the Philadelphia Eagles. Manning’s rating was just 67.9 in 10 regular-season games last year. Sanchez did lead the Jets to the AFC title game in 2009 & ’10. He is +3800 to win the 2016 NFL MVP Award, something Manning did a record four times.
The Broncos’ only other quarterbacks are Trevor Siemian, a 2015 seventh-round pick who has never attempted a regular-season pass, and rookie first-rounder Paxton Lynch out of Memphis. Certainly he’s the future at the position after the Broncos traded up in this year’s draft to take him. But Lynch isn’t ready for the NFL yet.
Denver has a wins total of 9 on NFL picks for the coming season, with the over a slight favorite. It would be relevant to see the Broncos not only as the defending Super Bowl champion, but also five time division champion. Winning back to back divisional titles for five straight years is impressive, but can the Broncos really win a sixth straight AFC West title? The Broncos remain as the top pick to win the AFC West, listed at +140. So even if their quarterback situation and other issues surrounding the team continue hitting the headlines, the Broncos remain as a solid candidate and a smart pick for the coming NFL Season.
