It seems to be the latest offseason trend to predict that the Denver Broncos will fall off the map in the coming season.
CBS came out last week, and stated that the Broncos are going to finish dead last in the AFC West. ESPN’s Football Outsiders has also predicted a 6-10 finish and back-to-back seasons of missing the playoffs.
The new coaching staff, the inexperienced quarterback situation, and the odds that the defense can continue their dominant run, are all listed as the primary reasons that the prognosticators are forecasting doom and gloom for the Orange and Blue.
Yet, things aren’t always as they appear. While it is easy to look at the flaws of a team following a year in which they struggled, failure is no guarantee. These Broncos are just two seasons removed from winning the Super Bowl, and aren’t quite ready to throw in the towel just yet. The 2017 Denver Broncos still have an abundance of talent, and they shouldn’t be underestimated. Here are a few reasons the Broncos can once again surprise the so-called experts, and be a contender in the division, the conference, and even the league.
Don’t read too much into the strength of schedule
It is easy to look at the Broncos’ schedule and immediately decide that it will equal more losses. This team will face the most difficult schedule in the league, with eight teams that won 10 or more games in 2016. Here’s the catch: Preseason strength of schedule doesn’t always mean that much. Last season, the toughest schedule went to the Atlanta Falcons. Of course, we know that the Falcons went all the way to Super Bowl LI. The reason is that we just don’t know which teams that are going to be good once the season actually begins. By the end of 2016, Atlanta’s schedule had gone from being the toughest, to the eight-easiest in the league. Right now, it looks like the Broncos will face a murderer’s row each week. However, every season there are always some teams that surprise us, while others disappoint. Strength of schedule just doesn’t mean that much right now.
The offense is going to be better
We all love Gary Kubiak. He spent more than two decades in Denver, as both a player, and a coach. He somehow found a way to keep the Broncos on track and win Super Bowl 50. Having said that, his offenses have never been very good. In his 10 seasons as head coach, with both Houston and Denver, his teams averaged just over 22 points per game. Quarterback play, the offensive line, and the running game got significantly worse in Denver under the Kubiak scheme. In 2014, the Broncos offense averaged over 30 points per game under John Fox. Just one season later that had dropped to 22 points per game. Last season, that dropped even further to just over 20 points per game. With Mike McCoy installed as the new offensive coordinator, the Broncos offense is going to improve. In San Diego, with significantly less talent, McCoy’s teams still managed over 30 points per game during his four seasons as head coach. If this offense even gets close to a 30-point average, it is going to make a big difference in the win column.
The AFC West may take a bit of a step back
Currently, the AFC West is the toughest division in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs won the division in 2016 with a 12-4 record. The Oakland Raiders qualified for the postseason as a wild card with a 12-4 record. The Broncos came in third with a 9-7 record, and while the Chargers finished 5-11, they were a dangerous team every week. The offseason has not exactly been kind to this division. The Chiefs have lost Jaye Howard, Dontari Poe, Jamaal Charles, and Knile Davis, and recently cut Jeremy Maclin. Drafting quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the first round could cause some internal strife in the Chiefs locker room. The Raiders also saw some departures in free agency. Latavius Murray, Mychal Rivera, Malcolm Smith, and Nate Allen all moved on to greener financial pastures. The Chargers are in a bit of a rebuilding phase, having fired McCoy, and hiring Anthony Lynn as their new head coach. The AFC West will still be a challenge, but it may be more manageable than you might think.
The running game will be improved
Yes, this falls under the “offense improving” umbrella, but getting a better run game could be such a pivotal advantage for the Broncos. Not only would a better ground game improve the Broncos offense, and keep pass rushers off of their young quarterbacks, it would also allow Denver to control the clock. The Broncos ranked 28th in time of possession in 2016, holding onto the football for an average for just 28 minutes per game. That means the defense was on the field for over 30 minutes per game. Denver now has a new offense, and a stable of running backs that could make for a marked improvement. C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker, Bernard Pierce, Jamaal Charles, De’Angelo Henderson and Juwann Thompson will be battling for playing time, and that competition should be healthy for the regular season. If the offensive line can come around under the new offensive scheme, the addition of Garett Bolles and a healthy Ty Sambrailo might allow Denver to keep opponents off balance.
The defense is still going to be elite
The Orange Crush took a small step backward last year, as they got pushed around up front. The pass defense was still top-notch, holding teams to just 185 yards per game through the air. It was the run defense that let them down, allowing over 130 yards per game and causing the defense to tire out at key times. John Elway set out to beef up the defensive line and get tougher up front and he has done exactly that – at least on paper. The Broncos brought in 330-pound Zach Kerr, 325-pound Domata Peko and drafted Florida State defensive end DeMarcus Walker. Derek Wolfe has packed on 20 pounds of muscle and will be closer to 300 pounds, and Adam Gotsis has been impressive in OTAs with his added weight. Last season we saw Von Miller play the most complete season of his career, and he did it against double- and triple-teams. If this defensive line can get better, it will free up more opportunities for players like Von and Shane Ray. That could be big trouble for opposing offenses. With this defensive backfield seemingly getting better each year, the Denver defense is still going to be a powerful unit. That will allow the Broncos to compete every single week.
Don’t be so quick to believe in the demise of the Denver Broncos in 2017. With Von Miller and company still in prime form, this team will not go away quietly.
