With the Denver Nuggets record righting itself at 2-2 on this road trip, there’s an opportunity for an impressive road sweep if the Nuggets can execute well tonight.

The Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver’s foil in the 2023-24 playoffs, plays host to Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and the Nuggets on Friday night. It’s Denver’s second premiere matchup of the season, the first being a blowout loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on opening night. How will the Nuggets respond to another tough team? Will they approach the game any differently? Will last year come into effect at all?

Let’s delve into the Minnesota Timberwolves matchup:

Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Minnesota: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert

Key Bench Players

Denver: Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, Dario Saric

Minnesota: Rob Dillingham (maybe), Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Joe Ingles (kinda), Naz Reid

Notable Injuries

Denver: Aaron Gordon – PROBABLE, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Minnesota: None

Key for the Nuggets – Revenge Factor?

These two teams don’t like each other. Don’t let them tell you otherwise. Jokic and Gobert have had battles for years. Murray and Edwards have a competitive relationship in that both would like nothing more than to humiliate the other. Jaden McDaniels tried to windmill at the end of Game 7, and I doubt a single Nugget on that court has forgotten.

It’s only Game 5, and the teams are slightly different. The main characters are the same, as are some of the main battlegrounds. Expect this one to get a bit hostile at times. Both teams want to assert themselves early in the year, and they’d like nothing more than for the other team to suffer.

Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs T’Wolves perimeter defense

Whether it’s Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, or the smart and savvy Mike Conley, the T’Wolves still have a formula to make Murray’s life extremely difficult. This time, Christian Braun is starting next to Murray, meaning there isn’t a trusted release valve yet for offensive creation (though it’s not like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was anything special vs Minnesota).

How does Murray handle it? He’s started the season slow once again and is working his way into things. The shooting efficiency and volume has been suspect against elite defenses. I don’t think that changes tonight.

Murray had 35 points the last time he saw the Timberwolves. Maybe he figured some things out in Game 7 last year, but the vast majority of that playoff series saw him bothered. My guess is it looks more like that.

Number of the Day – 13.3

That’s the number of threes Anthony Edwards has attempted per game in his first four games of the season. It’s a tremendous shift from years past when he’s averaged 7.2, 8.4, 7.3, and 6.7 threes per game. 13.3 threes is a ton of course, and it’s likely to drop in time, but it’s helped Edwards average 30.0 points per game so far on a career high 59.4 True Shooting %.

As a team, the Timberwolves are attempting 41.7 threes per game, the seventh most in the NBA. They’re making the fourth highest percentage of their threes as well at 39.5%. Compare that to the Nuggets who have attempted just 30.0 threes per game (second fewest in the NBA) and have made 35.4% (ranked 14th).

I sense a potential math problem for Denver tonight.

Nugget who should have a good game: Nikola Jokic

My sense is that almost everyone will struggle tonight except for Jokic and possibly Aaron Gordon. Murray and Porter will be defended by elite perimeter defenders. Christian Braun will be chasing around Edwards and being dared to shoot by the Timberwolves. I suspect the Wolves bench is (way) better than the Nuggets bench.

The only player I really trust in this matchup is Jokic. I have tried to avoid picking Jokic for this exercise before because it feels like cheating, but I expect him to play well.

I’m not so sure about the rest of the roster. We will see who shows up.