This is a big two-game set for the Denver Nuggets.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have established themselves as the leading threat in the Western Conference this season, and it’s not even close. The Nuggets can win the conference, but every stat, every inclination, every narrative points toward this being Oklahoma City’s year. Will the Nuggets have anything to say about that?

The last time these two teams faced each other was November 6th, and neither Jamal Murray nor Aaron Gordon played. Do these two games mean a little bit more as a result?

Let’s delve into the Oklahoma City Thunder matchup:

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon Nikola Jokic

Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein

Key Bench Players

Denver: Jalen Pickett, Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji, DeAndre Jordan

Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams

Notable Injuries

Denver: Nikola Jokic – PROBABLE, Aaron Gordon – PROBABLE, Zeke Nnaji – AVAILABLE, Julian Strawther – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Oklahoma City: Ajay Mitchell – OUT

Key for the Nuggets – How Hard should they Go?

It’s rare for back-to-back games to be played against division opponents like this, and both teams will be balancing the idea of winning to send various messages and saving important game plan info for a possible playoff series.

The Nuggets certainly aren’t catching the Thunder in the standings, but they’re also trying to stay ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Houston Rockets for the second seed in the West. That would give Denver two series that start on their home floor. While it didn’t work out well for them last year, that could still be a major advantage in a possible second round series against one of the three teams listed above (or someone else).

So, how much do the Nuggets and Thunder care about this game? Well, the Thunder rested everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY, in their Friday night game vs the Portland Trail Blazers. Still won by 20. There are very few Thunder players on the injury report for today. I think they’re going to amp it up.

For the Nuggets, they will probably play harder than normal, and the rotations will probably be cut down to an eight-man group, depending on foul trouble and injuries. Expect Jokic and Murray to play a ton while everyone else figures it out along the way.

Important Matchup – Nikola Jokic vs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

I mean, could it be anything else? Well, yes because these top two MVP candidates play very different leading roles for their respective teams at different positions on the court.

But this is what folks will be talking about, so let’s talk about it. These next two games will have a heavy bearing on the MVP race. Nikola Jokic’s most recent game involved him eclipsing 30 points, 20 rebounds, and 20 assists. It was the first time in NBA history anybody has done that. Jokic puts out crazy numbers every other night that have become desensitized in so many ways, but Friday’s gem on ESPN started some motion, some momentum toward him taking the MVP favorite status away from SGA.

How could SGA possibly compare? Well, SGA’s the best scorer in the NBA today. He’s extremely consistent, having put up fewer than 20 points just one time. For a guard that takes as many difficult perimeter shots as he does, SGA’s efficiency is also incredible with only seven games shooting below 40% from the field. By comparison, Donovan Mitchell has 12. Stephen Curry has 16. Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson have 19. SGA’s been tremendous all year for a team that’s far and away the top seed in the West, and he’s also a stronger defender than Jokic on top of that.

It will be interesting to see how often SGA seeks out Jokic in pick and roll and isolation coverage to try and make his point today.

Number of the Day – 13.6

+13.6 is the Oklahoma City Thunder Net Rating on Cleaning the Glass this year, the highest in the NBA and one of the highest marks we’ve ever seen.

As great as SGA is, you don’t earn that high of a team Net Rating alone. Jalen Williams is in his third season and a first-time All-Star. Chet Holmgren has played just 18 games but ranks 13th in Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) on Dunks and Threes. Williams isn’t that far behind him at 19th, and Alex Caruso isn’t far behind HIM at 22nd, anchored by the highest Defensive EPM figure in the database. Next is Isaiah Joe at 45th. You know, the Thunder backup wing spacer. Then, it’s Isaiah Hartenstein at 50th overall.

Including SGA (who ranks higher than Jokic), the Thunder have six players show up on the EPM top 100 before the next Nugget (Christian Braun at 53rd) shows up. All in all, 10 members of the Thunder are named before the Nuggets top five is named. That should express just how dominant the Thunder have been this year.

Nugget who should have a good game: Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon’s return to the floor after a brief injury hiatus was a welcome sight for the Nuggets. Gordon tied his career high with seven made threes and had 27 points. Gordon’s only had 20+ in six of his 37 games played, though three of those performances have occurred in the last four games. The Nuggets need Gordon on both ends of the floor today and tomorrow. Denver must be careful with his health though. If he needs to rest on Monday, he might as well make this game on Sunday count for as much as he can. Denver needs his physicality, floor spacing, ball handling, and defensive IQ.