It’s the 2023 NBA champions vs the 2024 NBA champions.

The Denver Nuggets welcome the Boston Celtics to town in a primetime matchup tonight. The Celtics are fully healthy. The Nuggets are without Aaron Gordon. The last time these two teams met, the Nuggets benefitted from having both Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to match up with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. This time, some new defenders will have to step up.

Let’s delve into the Boston Celtics matchup:

Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Russell Westbrook, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic

Boston: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis

Key Bench Players

Denver: Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, Jalen Pickett/Hunter Tyson, DeAndre Jordan

Boston: Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Jordan Walsh, Al Horford, Luke Kornet

Notable Injuries

Denver: Aaron Gordon – OUT, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Boston: None

Key for the Nuggets – Measuring Stick Game

It’s been pretty clear based on how the season has unfolded and the numbers behind the curtain that the Nuggets are at least a tier below the Celtics. Boston of course remains a title contender while the Nuggets, who still employ the best player in the world and a championship winning core, are a step behind.

This matchup is a good one to measure just how far away the Nuggets are from being a true title contender. The Celtics are elite by almost every metric. The Nuggets are seventh in win percentage right now, but there’s still some distance between them in a lot of the advanced numbers. How much do those matter? Maybe a little. Maybe a lot. Maybe not at all.

Let’s find out.

Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs Jrue Holiday and Derrick White

Last season, the Nuggets beat the Celtics twice in two of their most important measuring stick games of the season. Murray averaged 27.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in the two contests with a 64.2 True Shooting %. The list of players to average those numbers for a full season is two total players: Nikola Jokic (twice) and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That’s how good Murray was against the Celtics last year.

This year, Murray’s not having as good of a season, though he’s still been solid in big matchups. This is the second biggest matchup a perimeter player can have (first is the Oklahoma City Thunder). Facing down Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, two elite perimeter defenders, is a challenge for many guards. Though, there have been several to go off against the Celtics: Damian Lillard had 33 and 31 points. Stephen Curry had 27. Anthony Edwards had 28. Donovan Mitchell had 35 twice. Zach LaVine had 36.

Scorers still find a way to score. Will Murray be able to do the same?

Number of the Day – 55.2

That is the percentage of field goal attempts from the Boston Celtics that are three-pointers this season. 55.2% of their shots. It’s by far the most in the NBA and a symbol of things to come in the modern game. The Chicago Bulls are the next highest at 47.9%.

On the season, the following players average at least five three-pointers per game:

  • Jayson Tatum – 10.5
  • Derrick White – 9.1
  • Payton Pritchard – 8.4
  • Jaylen Brown – 7.0
  • Kristaps Porzingis – 5.8
  • Sam Hauser – 5.6
  • Al Horford – 5.5
  • Jrue Holiday – 5.4

The Nuggets, by comparison, have a 34.3% three-point attempt rate, which is by far the lowest in the NBA. Styles make fights. It helps to have Nikola Jokic.

Here are the Nuggets who attempt at least five three-pointers per game:

  • Michael Porter Jr. – 6.3
  • Jamal Murray – 5.8

Whew.

Nugget who should have a good game: Nikola Jokic

Speak of the devil, Western Conference Player of the Week Nikola Jokic will face Eastern Conference Player of the Week Jayson Tatum tonight. I’m not sure how often that’s happened before.

Fortunately for the Nuggets, the Celtics don’t have an individual or a style of play geared toward stopping Jokic. They’ve had success before with other bigs, especially when they can use Jrue Holiday to guard that player. Jokic is too big, too skilled, and too smart for that though. If the Celtics don’t give Holiday any help, Jokic will go for a crooked number.

The problem, of course, is that twos are worth less than threes. The Celtics might be willing to live with Jokic in the post as long as they’re getting up 50+ threes tonight. If that’s the case, expect another crazy stat line from Jokic like 37 points, 18 rebounds, and 8 assists. The real question will be Jokic’s efficiency and if the Nuggets can win his minutes.