The Denver Nuggets had Christmas spoiled by the Phoenix Suns a couple days ago, and they lost Aaron Gordon to another calf injury.
Things didn’t go the way the Nuggets hoped that night, so now, they get rewarded with a back-to-back. Tonight, they face the Cleveland Cavaliers. Tomorrow, they face the Detroit Pistons. Both teams are way better than relative expectations, and what was considered a reasonable back-to-back is moving toward unreasonable very quickly.
Still, there’s no time like the present to get back on track.
Let’s delve into the Cleveland Cavaliers matchup:
Denver Nuggets vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Starting Lineups
Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic
Cleveland: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Key Bench Players
Denver: Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, DeAndre Jordan
Cleveland: Ty Jerome, Max Strus, Caris LeVert, Jaylon Tyson, Georges Niang
Notable Injuries
Denver: Jamal Murray – PROBABLE, Aaron Gordon – OUT, Vlatko Cancar – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT
Cleveland: Isaac Okoro – OUT, Dean Wade – QUESTIONABLE
Key for the Nuggets – Aaron Gordon’s absence
Aaron Gordon will be out tonight. It’s not a good sign, because the calf that he injured (right) is the same one that caused him to miss four weeks worth of games during November. Soft tissue injuries linger, and Gordon wasn’t perfectly comfortable upon his return to the Nuggets lineup. He averaged 28.6 minutes per game in the nine games he played. During the 10th game on Christmas, Gordon exited early.
It might be precautionary, but it also might be an injury Gordon and the Nuggets have to manage for close to the entire season.
In his place, Peyton Watson is likely to start. Watson started all 10 games Gordon missed plus his another when the Nuggets eased Gordon back into the rotation. Can Watson make an impact? Since returning to the bench, the Nuggets defensive wing has averaged just 5.9 points in 20.3 minutes and has shot 28.6% from three. The Nuggets need Watson to be impactful in this matchup on both ends of the floor.
Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs Darius Garland
Murray appeared extremely limited on Christmas. He’s trying to fend off a right ankle sprain, and though he’s probable to play, it’s clear that he wasn’t 100% on Wednesday. Can a bit of treatment and a day of rest help him extensively? Doubtful.
Against the Cavaliers, Murray will match up with one of Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell on most possessions. There’s a world where the Nuggets try to hide him on Sam Merrill while Watson and Christian Braun guard Garland and Mitchell. Maybe that relieves some pressure on Murray, because the reality is: he needs to be more impactful on the offensive end for the Nuggets to have any chance against the Cavaliers.
Number of the Day – 16.1
That’s the number of three-pointers the Cavaliers MAKE per game this season, third most in the NBA behind the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls. The Cavaliers attempt 39.6 threes per game, while the Celtics and Bulls attempt 50.4 and 44.0 threes respectively. In short, the only reason the Cavs don’t make more is they don’t take quite as many.
Still, it’s a far cry from the Nuggets, who make 11.6 threes per game. That ranks 27th, and to put the difference in perspective, the Cavs generate 48.3 points per game behind the arc, while the Nuggets generate 34.8.
In the last matchup between these two teams on December 5th, the Nuggets shot 6-of-24 from behind the arc. The Cavaliers shot 22-of-48.
To say three-point shooting (and generating three-point shots) is key in this matchup would be the understatement of the season.
Nugget who should have a good game: Nikola Jokic
The last time these two teams met, Jokic put up 27 points, 20 rebounds, and 11 assists. In previous years, that might have been his best game of the season. Against the Cavaliers, it wasn’t good enough because he shot 13-of-26 and attempted one free throw…only 50% from the field.
After Christmas didn’t go the way the Nuggets wanted it to go, there’s only one guy that can truly be counted upon to play with consistency right now. The three-time MVP needs some help. Where that helps come from is unclear. Murray should play better. Porter will get some shots up over some shorter guards or be able to drag Evan Mobley out to the perimeter. Russell Westbrook has been consistent in his effort. He’s a better candidate for this than most of the projected starters right now.
I think Jokic will put up about 30 points, 15 rebounds, and seven assists in this matchup. That might not be enough, but we will soon find out.
